Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through December 12, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Whole Truth||cancelled||0.42|
|No Ordinary Family||😥 😥||0.76|
|Better With You||😐 😐 😐||0.79|
|Brothers & Sisters||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.89|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
If they could, ABC might choose to end Brothers & Sisters after this, its fifth, season. It likely suffers from the cost inflation that creeps up on every veteran show, plus it has a pretty large, and in some cases expensive, cast. Those high costs weigh down a show thats draws 11% below ABC’s scripted show average 18-49 rating.
That’s just the kind of show a network might replace if it had the bench strength to do it (ex. Without A Trace for CBS). But I don’t think ABC does have the bench, so they’re likely to keep it for yet another season.
Private Practice is in it its fourth season, Castle is in its third. Grey’s Anatomy and Desperate Housewives are both in their seventh seasons. The last two years have been a trail of rookie drama failure. What about V you say? It struggled to stay above a 2 rating last spring, if it returns to anything but a ratings slip-n-slide, I’ll be amazed.
With the backdrop of that record of recent drama failure, even though I think ABC might be inclined to replace Brothers & Sisters, I don’t think they have the ability to until they’re able to find some rookie drama success.
Better With You’s ratings say it is still a toss up for renewal right now, but its on the lower edge of the toss up range. Spring ratings will tell all.
Detroit 1-8-7 is only on the ABC schedule long enough to fill the gap between now and when Dancing With the Stars begins in the Spring. Then it’s off the schedule for good so that Body of Proof can follow DWTS.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.