When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed for next season (2011-12). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch seeks to prognosticate on what will happen by May. The two are still usually fairly closely aligned, particularly as we near the end of the season. That’s all well and good, though admittedly it is a bit of a cowardly “push” to predict that the outcome could go either way (AKA “on the bubble”) for some shows.
But one man’s cowardly is another man’s prudently. Sometimes things get left on the bubble due to not having not enough information. Mr. Sunshine stays on the bubble because I’m pretty sure, but not certain ABC will launch another comedy block for next fall. If they don’t, Mr. Sunshine is more likely to be canceled than renewed. If they do, it’s probably more likely to be renewed than canceled pending the performance of Happy Endings.
That’s pretty straightforward, but sometimes…
Nope, We’re Not Nuts to Have The Good Wife on the Bubble
Cowardly, perhaps. But not nuts. Prudent! CBS’s situation is more complex and speaking for myself, more interesting. The Good Wife is CBS’s lowest-rated Sunday-Thursday scripted show. Yep, The Good Wife has critical acclaim, and personally, I’m a fan. But if CBS is keeping it around for syndication purposes, it has to be renewed for two more seasons. Its ratings will very likely get worse if moved to Friday not better. So a move to Fridays to get it to syndication means knowing it will have to stomach two years of lower Friday ratings. It’s either that or suffer one more season of sub par ratings before moving it to Fridays.
Critical Acclaim Doesn’t Pay CBS’s Shareholders Dividends
I know CBS is on record of trying to use 10pm as a place to shepherd along shows to get them to syndication. But I’m not sure CBS thinks The Good Wife’s syndication prospects are all that great even if it gets to 88 episodes. The prospects just don’t seem all that great in terms of a lucrative deal. If CBS renews The Good Wife, it’s renewing it just so they can claim some critical success with a drama. With not much critical praise for CBS’s drama offerings, is it a good enough reason?
They’ll Never Cancel Blue Bloods It Gets Over Ten Million Viewers on a Friday!
That’s the frequent rally cry from people who don’t believe the adults 18-49 demographic matters. But it does matter and on that basis, it’s easy to put CSI: NY ahead of Blue Bloods. For now I’m keeping them both on the bubble because while CSI: NY rates better, heading into its 8th season it will likely be much more expensive than a Blue Bloods heading into its second season.
Changes this week:
- Bob’s Burgers renewed
- Chaos downgraded to certain cancelation
- Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior Downgraded to likely cancellation
- CSI: Miami upgraded to likely renewal
- Hawaii Five-0 upgraded to certain renewal
- The Good Wife upgraded to likely renewal (yep, even with the discussion above, I couldn’t talk myself out of it – we’ll see if I change my mind before season’s end.)
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode are in the table below.
|The Whole Truth||ABC||Canceled|
|The Good Guys||Fox||Canceled|
|Perfect Couples||NBC||Effectively Canceled|
|The Cape||NBC||Effectively Canceled|
|Detroit 1-8-7||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|No Ordinary Family||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Off The Map||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|The Defenders||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Traffic Light||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|The Event||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Better With You||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|Brothers & Sisters||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|$#*! My Dad Says||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Mad Love||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Human Target||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|The Chicago Code||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Body of Proof||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Mr. Sunshine||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Hellcats||CW||On The Bubble|
|Lie To Me||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Chuck||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Law & Order: Los Angeles||NBC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Likely Renewal|
|One Tree Hill||CW||Likely Renewal|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Mentalist||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Renewed|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Renewed, But…|