Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 28, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.59|
|The Defenders||😥 😥||0.74|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.77|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.03|
|$#*! My Dad Says||😐 😐 😐||1.04|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.12|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.14|
|Mike & Molly||1.20|
|Big Bang Theory||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.48|
A recent Variety article noted that The Defenders was being shot on the same soundstage as Jim Belushi’s last show, According to Jim, and that Belushi was “settling in nicely to his new digs”. Belushi should keep his suitcases handy.
Unlike According To Jim, The Defenders has no future in syndication and so won’t be kept alive for years in low rated zombie-like production. The Defenders is likely to be cancelled at the end of this season. (In more Belushi family nostalgia news, Jim’s (and John’s) buddy Dan Aykroyd will get a multi-episode guest appearance later this season.)
CSI:NY and CSI:Miami both have at least some potential for cancellation. Anyone suggesting that CBS won’t cancel either needs to remember that CBS typically cancels 4+ hours of scripted shows to make room for new ones next fall. Medium’s only the first hour to go.
Fans wondering how Blue Bloods might be cancelled even though it draws a squinty jillion average viewers on Friday night need only refer to Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs, both of which were doing better ratings at this point last season and were both cancelled.
Given that CBS has shown the propensity to cancel its lowest rated sitcom each season, even if it was above average overall, $#*! My Dad Says looks to be in at least some danger of cancellation.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.