Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 10, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||😥 😥||0.40|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.62|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|The Defenders||😐 😐 😐||0.79|
|CSI: Miami||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.92|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.96|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|$#*! My Dad Says||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.06|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.09|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.14|
|Mike & Molly||1.20|
|Big Bang Theory||1.39|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.48|
CBS’s Les Moonves said last week that audience was more important than awards to CBS. Not surprising, were I a shareholder, I’d feel the same way.
That statement is likely to get a real world test this season if the ratings trend for The Good Wife continues. Good Wife is CBS’s lowest rated veteran non-Friday drama. In recent years, shows that have occupied that position have been cancelled at the end of the season. But will its Emmy give The Good Wife some ratings slack? Since, Les isn’t returning my calls, I think it’s far more likely the show would be moved to Friday next season, and the Emmy earns it a “bonus” Friday year.
The Defenders is a lock to stay on the schedule through its first 13 episodes, but more than that gets tricky. CBS has at least two hour long dramas on the bench for mid-season (Criminal Minds 2, Chaos) and they’ll need to make room for them. At this point I think the best hope for the show surviving an entire season is if CBS doesn’t have a full season of Undercover Boss ordered for Sunday night (that hasn’t yet been announced).
Medium’s ratings are so woeful, that even with a lucrative syndication deal from Lifetime, it’s likely to be cancelled at the end of this season and drift into the great cable repeat beyond.
CSI:NY and Blue Bloods prospects for next season now both look like toss ups to me at this point.
$#*! My Dad Says ratings continue to fall, and it looks more and more like it could be this season’s Accidentally On Purpose. Any more relative declines in its ratings and I’ll be moving it into the “toss up” category.
No other CBS show seems in danger of cancellation, but CSI’s ratings suggest this is likely its last season at 9pm Thursday.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.