Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-30, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.55|
|Blue Bloods (Wed)||😐 😐 😐||0.69|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.74|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|$#*! My Dad Says||😥 😥||0.92|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|Rules of Engagement||1.13|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.18|
|Mike & Molly||1.24|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.31|
|Big Bang Theory||renewed||1.45|
|Two And A Half Men||renewed||1.56|
It’s been recent CBS practice to cancel their lowest rated sitcom each season, even when that comedy had above average (for CBS) ratings overall. For some time, that has put $#*! My Dad Says in the “toss up” category. However, now the show’s fallen to 8% below CBS’ spring 18-49 ratings average and at that level it’s more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
CBS is very likely to cancel at least two more hours of dramas this season (after Medium and The Defenders) to make way for new shows next season. Those cancellations will almost certainly come from this group of shows: Blue Bloods, The Good Wife, CSI:NY and CSI:Miami. Although spring newcomers Chaos and Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior will join the fray in the coming weeks, either of them kept on the schedule would likely cause CBS to cancel yet another hour of drama from this season.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.