Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through December 12, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.59|
|The Defenders||😥 😥||0.74|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|CSI: Miami||😐 😐 😐||0.84|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.03|
|$#*! My Dad Says||😐 😐 😐||1.03|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.13|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.16|
|Mike & Molly||1.20|
|Big Bang Theory||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.48|
Sorting through the CBS dramas (almost certainly 3 of them) that will follow Medium to the great show cancellation rest home in the sky isn’t obvious.
All the likely shows have their own reasons to go or stay:
- CSI:NY – (minus) old + likely expensive; (plus) more episodes = more syndication $?
- Blue Bloods – (plus) only 10pm show performing better than its 9pm lead in, new = could grow
- The Defenders – (minus) worst rated non-Friday show, (plus) new = could grow
- The Good Wife – (plus) Emmy win, did I mention an Emmy win?
- CSI: Miami – (minus) old + likely expensive; (plus) more episodes = more syndication $?
Of these shows, The Defenders is closest to the cancellation scrap heap. CSI:NY is close behind. More and more the ratings look like CSI: Miami is next on the list. The only thing that would steer me away from CSI: Miami is the unquantifiable guess that CBS might not want to cancel two CSI’s in the same season. If CBS doesn’t cancel two CSI’s, then they have to choose between The Good Wife and Blue Bloods, and I don’t think they want to have to make that choice.
Given that CBS has shown the propensity to cancel its lowest rated new sitcom each season, even if it was above average rated, I’m making $#*! My Dad Says a tossup on the reasonable likelihood that CBS continues with the practice.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.