Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 7, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||order cut to 13 episodes||0.42|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.59|
|Blue Bloods (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.60|
|The Defenders||😥 😥||0.77|
|The Good Wife||😐 😐 😐||0.80|
|CSI: Miami||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.88|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.02|
|Hawaii Five-0||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.04|
|$#*! My Dad Says||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.05|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.13|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||1.14|
|Mike & Molly||1.18|
|Big Bang Theory||1.41|
|Two And A Half Men||already renewed||1.48|
CBS will cancel 4+ hours worth of scripted shows that are currently airing on their Fall schedule to make room for new shows next season, based on its recent record:
- 2009-10: 6 shows, 4.5 hours cancelled (three sitcoms)
- 2008-9: 5 shows, 4.5 hours cancelled (one sitcom)
- 2007-8: 4 shows, 4 hours cancelled (no sitcoms)
I figured I’d give our readers a chance at the predicting this week. To give the novice predictors a head start, I left Medium in the poll.
Which shows do you think CBS will cancel by the end of the season? Choose up to 6 shows (but getting them to add up to 4-4.5 hours is up to you).
With the ratings situation today, I’d pile Medium, The Defenders, one or both of of $#*! My Dad Says and Rules of Engagement, and either CSI:Miami or CSI: NY on CBS’s cancellation heap. Possible substitutions on that list could be Blue Bloods or a second CSI.
I don’t believe The Good Wife will be cancelled at its current ratings levels. I think a move to Friday next season is more likely. Or it might just stay in the same timeslot as CBS accepts permanently lower ratings at 10pm.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.