Amidst all the chatter from the TV media about the new shows announced for the 2012-13 season, I’ll make a trivially easy guess that has nothing whatsoever to do with those new shows, and practically nothing to do with entertainment programming at all.

CBS will win the season adults 18-49 ratings crown for the 2012-13 season for the first time in 20 years (the last time was 1991-92).

Why is my guess such an easy one?

Football (and maybe a bit baseball).

  • CBS is likely to finish two tenths of an adults 18-49 ratings point behind Fox this season (3.0 to 3.2)
  • CBS will have the Super Bowl next season (+0.3 ratings points for CBS)
  • CBS will have the AFC Championship game in primetime next season (+0.1 point for CBS)
  • FOX will not have the NFC Championship game in primetime next season, like they did this season (-0.1 points for FOX)
  • FOX is unlikely to get another seven game World Series like they did this season (unknown, but likely negative effect for Fox)

Adding all that up, CBS is likely to easily clear FOX among adults 18-49 next season regardless of what happens with either network’s entertainment programs.

Remember, you heard it here first!

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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