Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through September 26, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Medium (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.41|
|CSI:NY (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.58|
|Blue Bloods (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.64|
|The Defenders||😐 😐 😐||0.84|
|Rules of Engagement||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.90|
|NCIS LA||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|CSI||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|The Mentalist||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|How I Met Your Mother||1.05|
|Mike & Molly||1.13|
|$#*! My Dad Says||1.16|
|Two And A Half Men||1.43|
|Big Bang Theory||1.43|
As badly as Medium’s 1.4 adults 18-49 rating was in its premiere last week, unless that continues long into the season, I think the show’s safe. CBS already has a syndication deal for Medium with Lifetime, which defrays the cost of the show, plus its on Friday at 8pm, one of CBS’ lowest priority hours of the week. CSI:NY started OK for a Friday show, and Blue Bloods did relatively well for one. We’ll have to see how the ratings develop going forward.
The only CBS rookie even remotely in danger, The Defenders, is still close enough to the rest of the CBS pack to not be noteworthy. Yet.
Of course, CBS will likely cancel at least one or two shows to make room for mid-season replacements, but their current shows are too close in the ratings to make a call just yet.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.