Another Friday, another 1.9 adults 18-49 rating for Fringe, another round of “Kevin Reilly said…” and “just wait until it airs against a new Supernatural and a new CSI: NY!” in the comments.

Did we learn anything since last week?  Perhaps.  Assuming there isn’t an adjustment down in the finals (available on Monday) maybe we learned that that Fringe’s first Friday was no fluke and not just puffed up due to a heavily promoted premiere. I don’t know whether the weather last night was a bigger factor than the week before or whether there was some extra halo due to a little bit of promotion during a heavily watched NFC Championship game that averaged nearly 52 million viewers.

As to the question of whether Fringe will move off the bubble to “likely to be renewed” in tomorrow’s Bubble Watch, the answer is no. Let me be clear, this has absolutely nothing to do with Fringe itself, but rather a different approach I’m taking with “Bubble Watch” than Bill uses for the “Renew/Cancel Index.”

For the most part, in the  Renew/Cancel Index Bill is not prognosticating about what will happen in May, but rather what would happen by May if the season ended now. You can count on Fringe being listed as “likely to be renewed” in the Fox Renew/Cancel index, so long as Fringe is maintaining 70% of Fox’s average in adults 18-49 for scripted originals.

I am taking more of an approach of prognosticating now about what will happen in May. So you will see several shows that the R/C indices list as “likely” that will still be on the bubble in the Bubble Watch.  I realize that this won’t please everyone, but to quote Ricky Nelson, “you can’t please everyone, so you’ve got to please yourself.”

Fringe still has 11 episodes left, including several that will  air once spring has sprung, the weather is better and Daylight Saving Time is back and against full broadcast competition. As a Fringe fan I want to be cautiously optimistic “in a so far, so good, hey, it could’ve been a lot worse!” way. All of that is true, and as a fan, I hope it continues, but there is still a lot of time between now and May.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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