Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 27, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.72|
|The Chicago Code||😥 😥||0.77|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.83|
|Bob’s Burgers||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.96|
So much for tea leaf schedule reading. I put aside the relative ratings that drive the Index for a moment, thinking that Fox’s summer scheduling plans were significant to its drama renewal decisions.That didn’t prove very predictive.
Adios schedule tea leaves, and back to the relative ratings. I hope they’ll take me back.
Relative ratings say that both Lie To Me and The Chicago Code are more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
And while its relative ratings have always indicated Bob’s Burgers stood a chance at renewal, I figured that the constraints of Fox’s animation scheduling would prevent it. In the spirit of abandoning scheduling worries, with its relative ratings compared to other animated shows, there’s at least a “toss up” that Fox will shoehorn Bob’s Burgers into the Sunday night schedule after football season ends (if it even starts).
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.