Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-30, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Human Target (F)||😳||0.45|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.67|
|Fringe (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.69|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||0.72|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||1.04|
|Bob’s Burgers||😐 😐 😐||1.11|
Fringe scored another 1.9 adults 18-49 rating in its second Friday outing. It’s holding right at about 70% of Fox’s overall adults 18-49 scripted ratings average. Past experience (almost entirely with CBS shows) indicates it will be renewed at that level. Lots of folks speculating that ratings might fall against new CBS and CW competition. I don’t speculate about future ratings, I wait and see.
Lie To Me ratings last week, and Human Target ratings last night kicked up a bit of a ruckus among their fans. Based on their ratings history, its looks like wishful thinking to me.
No new episodes of either Bob’s Burgers or American Dad last week, and with the Super Bowl no more this week.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.