Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 28, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||😳||0.27|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.59|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.68|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|Raising Hope||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||1.00|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.10|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.35|
Fringe moves to Friday on January 28.
Fox Entertainment President Kevin Reilly remarked “If it does anywhere near what it did on Thursdays, we can glue that show to the schedule because it can be a big win for us.”
If so, what ratings will it take on Friday for Fringe to survive?
Sadly, the available data is extremely thin.
As best I can tell, Dollhouse is the only scripted show that aired on a Friday on Fox that returned to the line up the following season during this decade. And unfortunately I don’t have the numbers easily available to calculate it’s R/C Index for that season using my current methods.
Although its a different network, CBS renewed Medium last season when it had a Renew/Cancel Index of only 0.59, although Medium already had a syndication deal in place that CBS would benefit from. Since Fringe isn’t produced by Fox, that’s not comparable either.
Still, I’m confident that if Fringe doesn’t maintain ratings of 60% of Fox’s scripted show average its a goner, and it probably needs 70-75% to be on the good side of renewal.
Through last week, the Fox new episode scripted show average adults 18-49 rating was a 2.71 (not adjusted for show duration).
Assuming that Fox average remains reasonably stable (a big if), Fringe would need a 2.0 rating for an Index of 0.75, and a 1.9 rating for an Index of 0.70.
So far this season, Fringe has averaged a 1.91 Live+Same Day adults 18-49 rating on Thursday.
I believe Kevin Reilly. If Fringe can hold a 1.9 rating on Friday, it has a fighting chance for renewal.
I hesitate to predict future ratings, but I’m sure many of our commenters are not so hesistant.
Recently I suggested that Fox would try and replace American Dad for next season, and many scoffed. Fox’s mid-season schedule indicates they’re going to try. Because of that, I consider American Dad a “toss up” for renewal next season. Whether Fox is successful in finding a replacement for American Dad is a completely different issue. On that, your guess is as good as mine.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.