Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-March 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Fringe (F)||😥 😥||0.58|
|Lie To Me||😐 😐 😐||0.71|
|The Chicago Code||😐 😐 😐||0.77|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.82|
|Bob’s Burgers||😥 😥||0.92|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||0.94|
With Terra Nova, and The X Factor already announced on next Fall’s Fox schedule, it’s possible that the only dramas from this season that are renewed will be House, Glee and Bones. They’re certainly the only ones that have ratings in the range that have typically indicated renewal.
Even though their ratings indicate likely cancellation, the fact that Lie To Me and The Chicago Code repeats are on Fox’s summer schedule has me keeping them as “toss ups” for renewal.
As I noted recently, there may or may not be a single slot for an existing marginal drama (Fringe, The Chicago Code, Human Target, Lie To Me) on next Fall’s Fox schedule. There won’t be two.
With that Index number, why is Bob’s Burgers in danger? With the renewal of American Dad, there’s just nowhere in the 2 hour animation block to fit Bob’s. Its only chance is returning at after football in the 7:30 slot.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.