Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 21, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||😳||0.27|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.67|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.70|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||0.99|
|Raising Hope||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.01|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.08|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.34|
Lots of action with Fox shows last week.
First, Human Target returned and its ratings hit the same sub-mediocre range inhabited by Lie To Me and Fringe.
Then Fox announced their mid-season schedule which had both Lie To Me and Human Target (each with 13 episodes ordered) being out of Fox’s line up by mid-February, and Fringe being moved to Fridays (likely because it had 22 episodes ordered).
Earlier in the season, I wondered whether Fox had given up getting better ratings than the below average numbers for Lie To Me and Fringe. The moves in their mid-season schedule indicate they haven’t, and for that reason (although their ratings have always put them there) I now consider Lie To Me, Fringe and Human Target to be “more likely to be cancelled than renewed”.
Last week I suggested that Fox would try and replace American Dad for next season, and many scoffed. Fox’s mid-season schedule indicates they’re going to try. Because of that, I consider American Dad a “toss up” for renewal next season. Whether Fox is successful in finding a replacement for American Dad is a completely different issue. On that, your guess is as good as mine.
The Good Guys wraps its first season of 20 episodes on December 10. There is absolutely no chance it returns during a regular broadcast season. Since I don’t try and predict the fate of summer only shows, I’ll make no guess as to whether it comes back next summer.
House ratings are becoming a pale shadow of last season’s, but those thinking it is in danger of cancellation are living in an anti-House fantasy land.
Running Wilde is being pulled from its timeslot before all its episodes ordered have aired and no more will be ordered. The remaining episodes will be burned off on Sundays in December.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.