Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through October 17, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||😳||0.28|
|Fringe||😐 😐 😐||0.72|
|Lie To Me||😐 😐 😐||0.72|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|American Dad||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|Raising Hope||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.05|
Both Running Wilde and The Good Guys are certain to be cancelled before the end of the season, but which will be moved out of its timeslot first?
Running Wilde is the bigger Fall disappointment (Fox had to expect The Good Guys would do terribly based on its summer run), but its half hour timeslot is tricker for Fox to substitute program for.
Even if they were somewhat expected, The Good Guys ratings are much worse, even for a Friday, and it’s a full hour that could be filled by several other scripted shows.
Your guess is as good as mine.
The decision over both Lie To Me and Fringe is the same bad one Fox had last season. I doubt they bring *both* back (but I’ve been wrong before!), and they could easily choose to bring back neither.
Raising Hope has received an order for its “back 9” episodes, so it will have a full 22 episode season. Right now, it’s still on the good side of the renewal odds for next season.
Hanging over the entire Fox Fall schedule is the fact that The X-Factor will be taking 3 of the 10 Monday-Friday primetime hours come next Fall. After Lone Star’s cancellation, that still leaves at least 2 hours that are on the current schedule (including unscripted shows) now that must go.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.