Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 14, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||😳||0.28|
|Lie To Me||😐 😐 😐||0.70|
|Fringe||😐 😐 😐||0.72|
|Bones||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|Raising Hope||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.01|
|American Dad||😐 😐 😐||1.02|
|The Cleveland Show||already renewed||1.11|
|The Simpsons||already renewed||1.38|
American Dad’s in its sixth season, and its ratings are still above average for Fox’s scripted shows (it’s doing relatively better this season than is Raising Hope), but the writing is on the wall that this may be its final season in the Sunday Night animation regular line up.
Fox is teasing Bob’s Burgers this fall, and has announced two more animated comedies for next season. Since Fox effectively cannot expand its animated block during football season without constant disruption, and seems unlikely to expand it in the spring by an additional hour, new animated comedies mean something else had got to go. While I don’t keep track of show production schedules, there are likely so many American Dad’s already ordered that even if it is replaced we could see new episodes airing for quite some time, either through the summer, or occasionally in odd timeslots next season. I’m moving it to a toss up that it’s American Dad’s last season as an 8-10pm Sunday night regular.
We’ll have more to discuss next Tuesday after Human Target returns to Fox’s schedule this Wednesday at 8pm. Will Human Target distinguish itself on the ratings well to the upside or downside, or will it fall into the sub-mediocre ratings range that Fringe and Lie To Me inhabit? We’ll see soon enough.
The Good Guys wraps its first season of 20 episodes on December 10. I wouldn’t be shocked if it came back next summer, but it won’t be airing again during a regular broadcast season.
Running Wilde is certain to be cancelled and not return next season.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.