Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 20, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Guys (F)||cancelled|
|Human Target (F)||😥 😥||0.47|
|Fringe (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.62|
|Lie To Me||😥 😥||0.72|
|Human Target||😥 😥||0.82|
|The Chicago Code||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|Bob’s Burgers||😥 😥||1.01|
|The Cleveland Show||renewed||1.01|
With American Dad now renewed for two years, the future for Bob’s Burgers goes from “toss up” to “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” for the same reason that American Dad was a “toss up” with Bob’s Burgers in the race. When you only have 2 hours a week for the full season members of your animated line up, a new show cannot enter without one leaving. The only reason I’m not making Bob’s “certain to be cancelled”, is that there’s some chance it becomes a 7:30pm “non-football season” member of the line up.
Why was American Dad renewed even when Fox’s actions demonstrated they wanted to replace it? The less than encouraging ratings from Bob’s Burgers didn’t make it an attractive substitute. Perhaps the two other animated shows ordered for next season didn’t look that promising either, and that was the final straw in putting American Dad back into the lifeboat.
The Chicago Code dipped to just a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating in its second week before recovering to a 2.1 rating this week (not yet in the calculations above). It’s holding on at the very bottom end of the toss up range.
Traffic Light continued to fall even after its poor premiere ratings. It’s now certain to be cancelled.
Fringe’s fourth Friday ratings were up a tenth, to a 1.5 adults 18-49 rating. Based on our very limited experience with Friday show renewals (almost all of that from CBS), it’s holding onto the bottom end of the (Friday curved) “toss up” range.
Both Lie To Me and Human Target are more likely to be cancelled than renewed.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.