With the fall broadcast television schedule announcements coming next week, it’s time for Robert and I (and you too, in the comments) to make our final guesses as to the renewal chances for broadcast primetime shows.

Without further ado, here are our final predictions of the likelihood of renewal for all the Fox scripted shows that are not already officially renewed (in homage to TVBTN favorite PTI).

5/12 Update: Reports are both Lie To Me and Human Target are renewed for next season.

Program Bill Robert
Lie To Me 60% 49%
Human Target 40% 33%

Robert’s comment: No comment!
Bill’s comment: I think its unlikely both of these shows return, but reasonably likely at least one of them does.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through May 9, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Til Death (S), (F) 0.20
Dollhouse (F), (P) 0.23
Brothers (F) 0.24
Til Death (Sunday) 0.26
Past Life 0.35
Sons Of Tucson 0.54
Fringe 0.56
Human Target (Wed only) 0.60
Lie To Me (P) 0.68
Bones (P) 0.69
American Dad (P) 0.74
24 0.77
The Cleveland Show (P) 0.79
The Simpsons (P) 0.87
Glee (P) 0.92
Family Guy (P) 0.96
House 1.06

Relative new episode scripted show ratings since 12/28/09

Dollhouse (F), (P) 0.29
Til Death (Sunday) (S) 0.32
Past Life 0.47
Sons of Tucson 0.72
Human Target (Wed only) 0.81
Fringe 0.87
The Cleveland Show (P) 0.96
American Dad (P) 0.97
24 1.04
Bones (P) 1.05
The Simpsons (P) 1.12
Family Guy (P) 1.25
House 1.62
Glee (P) 1.90

Dollhouse, Brothers, Sons Of Tucson and ‘Til Death are all officially canceled, and 24 is officially in its last season. Past Life was canceled before it even appeared in the Index!

House is effectively renewed, Hugh Laurie is under contract for another season, there just hasn’t been an official announcement by Fox.

Note that Human Target’s Wednesday average in the top table contains only new episodes, so it’s not comparable to shows with many repeats.

I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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