Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3-February 6, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Outsourced||😐 😐 😐||0.80|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.83|
|Harry’s Law||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|Community||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.97|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.16|
|Parks & Recreation||1.26|
|Law & Order: LA||pending|
The cancellation bear just finished catching The Cape, and suddenly a Perfect Couples ratings plunge put it next in his path. I wondered whether NBC might swap Perfect Couples and Outsourced before the end of the season. That was just a guess, but it’s certain that Perfect Couples will be cancelled.
Fans of Outsourced and Chuck should note that their shows are (as well as The Event) next closest to the cancellation bear, and he’s still hungry (and now under new ownership!).
Note that The Cape’s ratings average, and its Index, has still not yet declined to the extent that its most recent ratings would indicate.
Harry’s Law ratings fell sharply last night (not yet reflected in the table above), we’ll have to see what happens in the coming weeks and reassess the shows chances.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.