Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through November 28, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Chuck||😐 😐 😐||0.85|
|Community||😐 😐 😐||0.90|
|Parenthood||😐 😐 😐||0.94|
|Law & Order: LA||😐 😐 😐||0.98|
|The Event||😥 😥||1.01|
|30 Rock||already renewed||1.09|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.11|
|Outsourced||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.21|
Not much new happened in the past week that would change the prognosis for NBC shows being watched by the cancellation bear, and the bear is nearing the time of year when after catching the failed fall shows (Outlaw & Undercovers) he settles in for a little winter nap, but have no fear, he’s always got one eye open.
Chase will certainly be cancelled. The Event still looks more likely to be cancelled than renewed. Chuck, Parenthood, and Law & Order:LA could all go either way.
Outsourced, Community, Parks & Recreation and Perfect Couples will be racing against each other on Thursday to stay ahead of the bear beginning January 20. How Outsourced does at 10:30 in the Spring will be more relevant to its future than how it did at 9:30 in the Fall, but those wishing for its demise should not be wagering any money they’re not prepared to lose.
Why is The Event’s Index relatively high, yet its prognosis so bleak? Its early season ratings were so high, and it has fallen so far, so quickly, its average has not yet caught up with its current ratings situation.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.