Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results from January 3 – May 1, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index||6 Week Index|
|Friday Night Lights||final season||0.43||0.47|
|The Paul Reiser Show||cancelled||0.51||0.56|
|Law & Order: LA||😥😥||0.67||0.73|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||1.26||1.34|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.30||1.40|
This is the last week for “regular” Renew/Cancel Index posts. Next week Robert and I make our final predictions for every undecided show “Oddsmakers” style, so I figured I’d also look at just the last six weeks of show ratings in a separate short term “6 Week” Index. In many cases it shows us nothing different than the longer term Index (since 1/3/11), but there are a few changes in store.
Chuck’s short term ratings average is not its friend, no reason to move it out of the “more likely to be cancelled than renewed” category.
Outsourced short term relative ratings average coupled with the show’s Fall ratings has me elevating it into the “toss up” range.
Harry’s Law short term ratings average isn’t positive, but not so much as to move it into the “toss up” range. It will stay “more likely to be renewed than cancelled”.
Law & Order: LA ratings look better compared to NBC’s recent averages, but not enough to move into the “toss up” range.
Whatever happens, the cancellation bear has only two more weeks to wait for its final dinner of the season.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐😐 :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂🙂🙂 :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.