Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2010-11 season in May, 2011. (includes results through September 26, 2010):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Undercovers||😐 😐 😐||0.79|
|Community||😐 😐 😐||0.83|
|Chase||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.86|
|Parenthood||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|30 Rock||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.98|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.20|
Has Chuck finally ended its multi-season tightrope walk along the NBC Renew / Cancel line? It was the lowest rated non-Friday scripted show on NBC last week. Unless it can move up in the coming weeks, it’s finally headed for cancellation.
Undercovers and Community aren’t in much better shape than Chuck. In the coming weeks there is likely to be lots of position and prediction changing. Chuck fans grasping for shows that the cancellation bear might catch first, should look no further. (Chase is worth keeping in mind too.)
Last week, I cautioned that fans should wait for the results of Outlaw’s first Friday show before counting it out. After last Friday’s 1.1 adults 18-49 rating the show’s a goner. I’m not sure how long it will last this season, but it will certainly be cancelled and not return next season.
The rest of NBC’s scripted line up looks to be outside the danger zone. For now.
It’s important to note that the Index (and prediction) for each show can change, particularly during the first several weeks of the season, both positively and negatively.
Note: Why are these Index results different from those Robert posted on Saturday? He weighted ratings by airtime (60 minute shows count double 30 minute shows) in calculating the averages. I used to, but no longer do it this season. It’s simpler, it was just as predictive backtested on last year’s results, and it makes some logical sense since I’m not really interested in the network’s actual ratings average just the ratings average of their scripted show options.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2011
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2011
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2011
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2011
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2011
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? While the methods used have changed slightly from past seasons check out how the Renew / Cancel Index would have predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2009-10 broadcast television season.