Digital TV Deadline, February, 2009. Not a chance.

Categories: New TV Technology,Satellite TV

Written By

September 6th, 2007

There is absolutely no chance that the current deadline of February 17, 2009 for all digital TV broadcasting will stand. Considering that 23% of all television sets in the US don't receive cable or direct broadcast satellite (DBS) programming and only 36% of all TV sets in the US are currently connected to a cable or DBS set-top converter box.It will be pushed back. If I had to bet, I'd go over 3 years before I went under.Seidman adds: Your 5 year old son might be in graduate school before this happens. As of last December it's a mighty big piece of the pie to be cutting out. Note, in the latest Nielsen Universe Estimates for the US for 2008 it pegs Satellite w/29.5m HH and over-the-air at 14.4m HH.

US Television Households breakdown Dec 2006

 
  • Robert Seidman

    if i’m reading it right, the estimates for 2008 strike me as more realistic. It seems to me that while local advertisers would be upset to lose access to these folks, the national advertisers won’t care much at all. Continued reliance on free, over-the-air content probably doesn’t correlate all that well with being an effective market to advertise to — I mean c’mon, these are people who don’t give a hoot about ESPN and are willing to wait out the Sopranos until it is syndicated locally.

    The more I think about it the more I favor just cutting these people off ;)

  • jason baldwin

    i work for charter communications
    our company is compleately ready for the switch.

    what you dont realize is that the corperate communications companys stand to make far more money with the change to digital.

    think about it every signature of analog takes up 6Mhz of bandwidth on a 700Mhz
    channel. while every digital signature only takes up about a tenth of that. the removal of the analog would directly free up over 70% of the bandwidth. allowing for the intagration of newer not yet published techs.

    this world is changing over the next 5 years you will see intagrations of tech that you would not imagin.

    hint. look at the work being done with maxell and holigraphic storage, they boast a possible 120MBps (thats mega byte not bit) txfr rate. imagin the possibility of pulling that entire bit stream over a standard connection. now intagrate that is docsis layering and you can see possibility posed.

    (if you do not understand, you will shortly)

    jason

  • jason baldwin

    i work for charter communications
    our company is compleately ready for the switch.

    what you dont realize is that the corperate communications companys stand to make far more money with the change to digital.

    think about it every signature of analog takes up 6Mhz of bandwidth on a 700Mhz
    channel. while every digital signature only takes up about a tenth of that. the removal of the analog would directly free up over 70% of the bandwidth. allowing for the intagration of newer not yet published techs.

    this world is changing over the next 5 years you will see intagrations of tech that you would not imagin.

    hint. look at the work being done with maxell and holigraphic storage, they boast a possible 120MBps (thats mega byte not bit) txfr rate. imagin the possibility of pulling that entire bit stream over a standard connection. now intagrate that is docsis layering and you can see possibility posed.

    (if you do not understand, you will shortly)

    jason

  • Bill Gorman

    Jason,
    I appreciate that the cable MSOs and SatCo's are significantly more ready and motivated than the public.

    I think that unless some sort of magic I don't know about happens in the next 16 months, all those people without cable boxes are going to scream bloody murder and the deadline's going to be pushed back.

    Whether they receive only OTA programming or analog cable directly from the coax, there are a lot of them [over 30 million], and if they haven't moved to a cable box already, what's the magic thats going to get them to do it before February, 2009?

  • Bill Gorman

    Jason,
    I appreciate that the cable MSOs and SatCo’s are significantly more ready and motivated than the public.

    I think that unless some sort of magic I don’t know about happens in the next 16 months, all those people without cable boxes are going to scream bloody murder and the deadline’s going to be pushed back.

    Whether they receive only OTA programming or analog cable directly from the coax, there are a lot of them [over 30 million], and if they haven’t moved to a cable box already, what’s the magic thats going to get them to do it before February, 2009?

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