Seidman vs. Gorman: Oddsmakers

Categories: Watching TV

Written By

September 7th, 2007

Odds Apple lowers the price of TV shows on iTunes to $.99 during the next year?

Robert: If the question were for a longer time window, say 2 or 3 years, I'd say 100%.  In the long run the Studios are screwed and it will all be "free" and $.99 will seem great. But that's a ways off.  Given everything Apple is trying to juggle right now, including the fear, greed and egos at the studios, I'd put it at a 30% chance it happens in the next twelve months.

Bill: 100%. The writing is on the wall. Studios are going to be opting to stream their shows free [with ads] from their own websites or offer them bundled for significantly less than $1.99/show. iTunes is the most convenient way to get content on your iPod, but people will go through a bit of inconvenience for *free*.

Robert: There can be no denying iTunes is the most convenient way to get content on your iPod or iPhone. I'm in 100% agreement with you there. 

Odds that Heroes will experience a Sophomore Slump?

Robert: ZERO percent.  That's right, you heard me.  Tim Kring knows how to reach people who are looking for hope with some dramatic (and fantastical) inspiration.  Normally I'd say 100% because you can only pull off "Save the Cheerleader, Save the World" once.  But Kring knows what he is doing.  Further, they are writing the story arcs differently to address the late season ratings fall-off caused by the way NBC spaces the shows.  With mass marketing of the DVD box set, this show has some legs. Old fans will be back, and they'll get new fans. Plus I'm sure they'll add in a couple of new hot chicks.  ZERO percent.

Bill: 75% Look at Lost. They got sloppy or cocky and they faltered. Heroes has a new dorky lead-in, and NBC manages to screw up most everything else. Why should Heroes be any different?
Robert: ZERO percent!

Odds Mark Cuban wins Dancing with the Stars

Robert: As much as I'd like to say 100%, it's coming  down to a Cuban vs. Jane Seymour finale. I'll  go 100% he gets into the final, but then I've got Dr. Quinn Medicine Woman very narrowly edging out Cubes. 

49%.

Bill: 100% chance I'll be rooting for him to win, but I'll say 10% chance of him actually winning, after all I hear he was a dancing instructor. The initial rounds are completely a celebrity popularity contest and Cuban just doesn't have the general name recognition to survive early no matter how charming or good a dancer he is.

Odds CBS is unseated as the Primetime HH ratings leader this season?

Bill: 5% - CBS lead ABC and FOX by 1.5 ratings points in 2006-07. A change of that magnitude is historically very tough to make in a single year. ABC is changing 7.5 hours of its primetime schedule so if it finds multiple hits it has a tiny chance.

Robert: 0% --whether a mere 45% or a full 100% of DVR users zap through commercials, the Les Moonves network isn't placing second to anyone this season.  Though looking at the season averages data for the last two years, FOX won the coveted 18-49 demo both years! And without a single successful new show! Can FOX pull a three-peat?

Odds that not a single new FOX show survives the season and is renewed

Robert: 92% -   Kelsey Grammar's new show? I give it a small chance, and while I love Gordon Ramsay's tirades in Hell's Kitchen, I am not moved to watch Kitchen Nightmares (saw some BBC versions of this, and it wasn't nearly as interesting as HK). I'm not even optimistic for the Sarah Connor Chronicles. It won't matter, they'll probably win the 18-49 demo again anyway.

 Bill: 80% - FOX has a bad track record on introducing new shows and a look at their fall introductions doesn't inspire confidence. They'd better hope Idol comes back strong.

 
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