TiVo's Season Pass(tm) Tallies Predictions of ...Nothing

Categories: TiVo News

Written By

October 4th, 2007

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TiVo announced the most popular shows in their subscribers Season Pass lists. It's not clear why that list should be interesting. As presented, with data from 2006 & 2007, it can be used to predict nothing.

A few items:

- In 2006, Studio 60 was very high on the initial list (#12), yet was canceled. Heroes was far down the initial list, yet was the season's biggest eventual hit.

- The movement "up" the might be interpreted as a show growing in popularity. However, for new shows, they will all show a move up the list. After all, a month ago they weren't on the list.

- Season Passes are ridiculously inertial and backward looking, people leave things on their lists forever. Studio 60 was #62 this week, higher than most new shows, and it went off the air permanently in June. Similar situations with Old Christine, and The 4400.

- Lost and American Idol are in the top 10, yet are currently not airing any shows.

- Most of the moves down were simply shows no longer on the air (or at least with no new episodes). Predictive of nothing.

Here's a trend that's very predictive, TiVo's small share of the DVR installed base will continue to shrink further in the coming months.

If you want to watch information that might predict which new shows will succeed, wait until next week's Nielsen Top 20 New Shows TV Ratings, where we will show the New Show Ratings Momentum!

 
  • Robert Seidman

    i think now that the Nielsen panel is including 20% DVR households up from 9% last year when we actually get the Nielsen data (which admittedly seems to take weeks!) we'll have some better indications of what is actually being *watched* on a time shifted basis. This will include some Tivo homes as well as the 80% of the DVR base who are not using Tivo.

  • Robert Seidman

    i think now that the Nielsen panel is including 20% DVR households up from 9% last year when we actually get the Nielsen data (which admittedly seems to take weeks!) we’ll have some better indications of what is actually being *watched* on a time shifted basis. This will include some Tivo homes as well as the 80% of the DVR base who are not using Tivo.

  • Robert Seidman

    Over/under 10 weeks before Bionic Woman is in the Top 25? ;)

  • Robert Seidman

    Over/under 10 weeks before Bionic Woman is in the Top 25? ;)

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