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TV Bigshot Strategy Blog Discussion

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February 27th, 2008

Instead of creating a new post each week for comments and questions on our strategy blog posts for the  TVBigshot game I thought we'd just switch to one post with running comments and questions.

To see our most recent TVBigshot Blog Posts go here.

Agree or Disagree? Comment away!

 
  • Night Nymph13

    Bill, I agreed with most of your advice, and because Deal or No Deal did have a “good” week last week (it was one of the highest momentum movers upwards) and that will likely mean it won’t have momentum points thsi week, it will likely not lose too much overall and is likely guaranteed at least one time slot win. It came close to even a top 5 last week, and without the Academy Awards and the red carpet special that beat it, it might have a chance this coming week. It looks like it’ll only be on twice next week, so only 2 dates will need to be factored.

    Even if or maybe even especially if it does go down, I think it would be a good buy on monday or tuesday – I’d keep it for the added money it’ll get on Wednesday and the potential for going back up again the next week as well as the likely Monday time slot win (which seems to be very consistent), then sell it next monday or tuesday afternoon before it goes down in price if the ratings went down this week. Me I’ll likely keep it for the monday ratings win, since I bought it way back when it was cheap and kept it, so nothing lost on my part. Exception!!!! If this Monday’s show finally gives away the million, ratings next Monday mmight go down, until the million is given away though finally, I expect it to continue winning Monday’s, especially with the lack of competion. I can’t predict as well what will happen after the million is given away. If you’re not a gambler, selling by Sunday and taking the added bucks might be better if the million is given away this monday. Me, I’ll keep it anyway. It’s done well for me so far.

    Also thank you for pointing out Law & Order. I almost sold it, because my local paper TV guide did not show that it was a new episode, so because of your advice, I checked the NBC site and sure enough it is a new episode, and therefor, as you advise, a likely time slot winner (besides being a good show and NBC).

    On Thursday, you’re likely right that LOST will drift down, but I’m keeping it anyway. I love the show and hope springs eternal for me that it will beat CSI again – a show I admit bias against for many reasons too numerous to list.

  • Night Nymph13

    Bill, I agreed with most of your advice, and because Deal or No Deal did have a “good” week last week (it was one of the highest momentum movers upwards) and that will likely mean it won’t have momentum points thsi week, it will likely not lose too much overall and is likely guaranteed at least one time slot win. It came close to even a top 5 last week, and without the Academy Awards and the red carpet special that beat it, it might have a chance this coming week. It looks like it’ll only be on twice next week, so only 2 dates will need to be factored.

    Even if or maybe even especially if it does go down, I think it would be a good buy on monday or tuesday – I’d keep it for the added money it’ll get on Wednesday and the potential for going back up again the next week as well as the likely Monday time slot win (which seems to be very consistent), then sell it next monday or tuesday afternoon before it goes down in price if the ratings went down this week. Me I’ll likely keep it for the monday ratings win, since I bought it way back when it was cheap and kept it, so nothing lost on my part. Exception!!!! If this Monday’s show finally gives away the million, ratings next Monday mmight go down, until the million is given away though finally, I expect it to continue winning Monday’s, especially with the lack of competion. I can’t predict as well what will happen after the million is given away. If you’re not a gambler, selling by Sunday and taking the added bucks might be better if the million is given away this monday. Me, I’ll keep it anyway. It’s done well for me so far.

    Also thank you for pointing out Law & Order. I almost sold it, because my local paper TV guide did not show that it was a new episode, so because of your advice, I checked the NBC site and sure enough it is a new episode, and therefor, as you advise, a likely time slot winner (besides being a good show and NBC).

    On Thursday, you’re likely right that LOST will drift down, but I’m keeping it anyway. I love the show and hope springs eternal for me that it will beat CSI again – a show I admit bias against for many reasons too numerous to list.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com/ Bill Gorman

    NN, I’m glad I kept you in L&O.;

    Indeed, large networks, those with $1+ billion will have to buy lots more shows than I advise.

    For them it really becomes a matter of which shows *not* to buy.

    But I also figure that the high budget network moguls know what they’re doing, most of them likely more than I do and so if I can occasionally point out something that they didn’t realize, I’m happy.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    NN, I’m glad I kept you in L&O.

    Indeed, large networks, those with $1+ billion will have to buy lots more shows than I advise.

    For them it really becomes a matter of which shows *not* to buy.

    But I also figure that the high budget network moguls know what they’re doing, most of them likely more than I do and so if I can occasionally point out something that they didn’t realize, I’m happy.

  • pretzelgirl

    Hi Bill,
    Your comment about Moment of Truth isn’t accurate–it will earn huge growth points this week. That doesn’t necessarily make it a good buy, but it’s definitely not in steady decline.
    Pretzelgirl

  • pretzelgirl

    Hi Bill,
    Your comment about Moment of Truth isn’t accurate–it will earn huge growth points this week. That doesn’t necessarily make it a good buy, but it’s definitely not in steady decline.
    Pretzelgirl

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com/ Bill Gorman

    Once again,you are correct pretzelgirl! Editing now!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    Once again,you are correct pretzelgirl! Editing now!

  • http://www.sftv.org Mr. SFTV

    RE; Don’t Forget the Lyrics

    The Rocket will fizzle next week since it won’t be after American Idol and will not earn the $84 mil price tag. Moment of Truth will decline from this week’s post-Idol airing but may earn close to the $53 mil price tag. I prefer to bet on shows that have a chance of going up and getting some ratings increase bonus points. Truth and Lyrics have no chance for that next week.

  • http://www.sftv.org Mr. SFTV

    RE; Don’t Forget the Lyrics

    The Rocket will fizzle next week since it won’t be after American Idol and will not earn the $84 mil price tag. Moment of Truth will decline from this week’s post-Idol airing but may earn close to the $53 mil price tag. I prefer to bet on shows that have a chance of going up and getting some ratings increase bonus points. Truth and Lyrics have no chance for that next week.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com/ Bill Gorman

    SFTV, you, as well, are correct. I must have needed more coffee this morning.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    SFTV, you, as well, are correct. I must have needed more coffee this morning.

  • http://www.tv.com/users/vendbien/profile.php?tag=login;myprofile Jon V

    Thanks for pointing out the L & O move, but I think it’s not quite as simple as that. It’s going to take about a 10-12 mil hit next week in value. You can sell now for 77 mil and buy two shows for next week that will approx. equal L & O’s points and then rebuy L&O
    next Wed with the proceeds from the sale of those and pick up about another 10-20 mil in value the following week.

    It’s a tough call. But I think buying a couple of the new shows (NewAm, Canterbury, etc) debuting this week (if you haven’t already) with the proceeds of the sale of L&O gives you double value in and out. I think there is 30-
    40 mil or more in value to be picked up that can then be used to purchase new episodes of established shows coming back from hiatus that will show big gains two weeks down the road just by juggling L&O and two debut shows.

    I’m trying to chop out extra money to load up on returning hits for their comeback debuts. (Did any of this make sense???)

  • http://www.tv.com/users/vendbien/profile.php?tag=login;myprofile Jon V

    Thanks for pointing out the L & O move, but I think it’s not quite as simple as that. It’s going to take about a 10-12 mil hit next week in value. You can sell now for 77 mil and buy two shows for next week that will approx. equal L & O’s points and then rebuy L&O
    next Wed with the proceeds from the sale of those and pick up about another 10-20 mil in value the following week.

    It’s a tough call. But I think buying a couple of the new shows (NewAm, Canterbury, etc) debuting this week (if you haven’t already) with the proceeds of the sale of L&O gives you double value in and out. I think there is 30-
    40 mil or more in value to be picked up that can then be used to purchase new episodes of established shows coming back from hiatus that will show big gains two weeks down the road just by juggling L&O and two debut shows.

    I’m trying to chop out extra money to load up on returning hits for their comeback debuts. (Did any of this make sense???)

  • http://www.tvbigshot.com/network/8623/ Jon V

    P.S. I’m in 530th place, so I’m not going to win the thing. But it’s not whether you win or lose – it’s how you play the game. (Or so say us losers).

    I put in my TVBS site if you click on my name… haven’t sold L&O yet – I’m still trying to do the math and see how these debuts go.

  • http://www.tvbigshot.com/network/8623/ Jon V

    P.S. I’m in 530th place, so I’m not going to win the thing. But it’s not whether you win or lose – it’s how you play the game. (Or so say us losers).

    I put in my TVBS site if you click on my name… haven’t sold L&O yet – I’m still trying to do the math and see how these debuts go.

  • http://www.tvbigshot.com/network/8623/ Jon V

    P.P.S – Just checked my TVBS and I moved up to 504th on adjustments.

  • http://www.tvbigshot.com/network/8623/ Jon V

    P.P.S – Just checked my TVBS and I moved up to 504th on adjustments.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com/ Bill Gorman

    But Jon, if you trade pre-Monday and pre-Wednesday, as I’m sure you do, then you need not be concerned about value loss in the shows you hold Sunday at midnight.

    The Tuesday moves are all obvious, and really are the same regardless of your budget unless you have very, very little. Your budget gain trades on Tuesday have nothing to do with your line up points trades on Sunday.

    What makes sense on Sunday night is heavily dependent on your budget level. If you only have enough budget for L&O; OR a couple smaller shows, then you have to weigh your options [even in that case I think that L&O; is among the best deals], but many folks have plenty of money to buy ANY good option, and they’re looking at the other side of the process which is “where can I put my remaining money with the least chance that I under earn.”

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    But Jon, if you trade pre-Monday and pre-Wednesday, as I’m sure you do, then you need not be concerned about value loss in the shows you hold Sunday at midnight.

    The Tuesday moves are all obvious, and really are the same regardless of your budget unless you have very, very little. Your budget gain trades on Tuesday have nothing to do with your line up points trades on Sunday.

    What makes sense on Sunday night is heavily dependent on your budget level. If you only have enough budget for L&O OR a couple smaller shows, then you have to weigh your options [even in that case I think that L&O is among the best deals], but many folks have plenty of money to buy ANY good option, and they’re looking at the other side of the process which is “where can I put my remaining money with the least chance that I under earn.”

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