Comments on: DVR Viewing: Friend to Sarah Connor & Big Brother, but not Jericho

By: Marc

Marc — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 18:02:23 +0000

Do you think for cable networks Live + 7 will hold more weight? Since people seem to watch the commercials more than FF them. I think the advertisers need to take a different approach. Some great shows are being effected by DVR and it hurts them if they don’t count DVR numbers. I think it is truly unfair.

By: Marc

Marc — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 18:02:23 +0000

By: Danielle

Danielle — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:30:59 +0000

The CW is going to go down and flames and unfortunately bring Supernatural down with it. I love that show. I need a DVR so what I watch can be counted too.

By: Danielle

Danielle — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 13:30:59 +0000

The CW is going to go down and flames and unfortunately bring Supernatural down with it. I love that show. I need a DVR so what I watch can be counted too.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:46:41 +0000

frankj, It’s not entirely clear to me that advertisers are able to measure any advertising results from television advertising. I think their negotiations with TV networks over ad rates are just a sort of Kabuki theatre that plays out each year.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:46:41 +0000

frankj, It's not entirely clear to me that advertisers are able to measure any advertising results from television advertising. I think their negotiations with TV networks over ad rates are just a sort of Kabuki theatre that plays out each year.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:35:56 +0000

Frank, I expect most people who are used to paying $10 a month won’t switch. But that’s less than 25 million homes out of 112 million (according to Nielsen).

I imagine “free” with commercials will go over better with the 87+ million homes who aren’t already in the DVR universe.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:35:56 +0000

Frank, I expect most people who are used to paying $10 a month won't switch. But that's less than 25 million homes out of 112 million (according to Nielsen).

I imagine “free” with commercials will go over better with the 87+ million homes who aren't already in the DVR universe.

By: frankj

frankj — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:31:46 +0000

Interesting. Well I’d agree about the DVR sans-fee thing, but isn’t a DVR box only like five bucks extra through most cable providers? I think I only pay ten extra for the HD box. I think most people will keep paying just to ditch the commercials.

That said, I can see FOX et al trying to just push it off on the advertisers. However, we are talking about 20 to 30 percent of the current viewing audience, of major shows, taking a pass on commercials. And these are real viewers, not just some nebulous Nielson box assumptions, that come back week after week. I would imagine once this starts the advertisers may push back hard – especially if they perceive a drop-off in advertising results. In fact, to that point, I wonder if the lack of a perceived drop-off may be the only thing stopping a major re-adjustment of advertising dollars?

By: frankj

frankj — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 20:31:46 +0000

Interesting. Well I'd agree about the DVR sans-fee thing, but isn't a DVR box only like five bucks extra through most cable providers? I think I only pay ten extra for the HD box. I think most people will keep paying just to ditch the commercials.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:51:18 +0000

100% agree on Robert’s point about Video On Demand being used by the networks to blunt the impact of DVRs, if they’re smart.

If every one of a network’s shows is available free via VOD with commercials without FFing my guess is that the recording of those shows would be reduced and folks will record shows that aren’t VOD’able.

ABC is already doing this.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:51:18 +0000

100% agree on Robert's point about Video On Demand being used by the networks to blunt the impact of DVRs, if they're smart.

If every one of a network's shows is available free via VOD with commercials without FFing my guess is that the recording of those shows would be reduced and folks will record shows that aren't VOD'able.

ABC is already doing this.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:33:46 +0000

Fred, I haven’t checked out Life though you’re not the first to suggest I should. If NBC hadn’t bailed on iTunes, I would have already bought it, but if I don’t have the flexibility to move it to my iPhone, I’m not going to pay Amazon Unbox for it. But NBC to its credit at least has all the episodes on its web site — for free, I’ll check it out.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:33:46 +0000

Fred, I haven't checked out Life though you're not the first to suggest I should. If NBC hadn't bailed on iTunes, I would have already bought it, but if I don't have the flexibility to move it to my iPhone, I'm not going to pay Amazon Unbox for it. But NBC to its credit at least has all the episodes on its web site — for free, I'll check it out.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:26:05 +0000

I’d hazard a guess that the tv networks still have the upperhand in the advertising market and to that end will try to push DVR viewers onto the advertisers in attempt to get them to pay for them. As the DVR market grows, and more people time-shift, no doubt push back from the advertisers will grow as well. That still adds up to a “we’ll see”.

The networks will probably wind up giving away DVRs sans monthly fees that don’t allow you to fast-foward through commercials (this is to some degree already happening).

I already predicted above that advertisers will try to redesign some commercials to optimize for fast-forwarding. I’m 100% sure that will happen.

For now, in terms of TSCC, I think what matters is the LIVE+SD numbers (which aren’t great) and the performance in the 18-34 (lacking data, sadly) and 18-49 demographic where it performed well enough in my opinion to be renewed.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:26:05 +0000

I'd hazard a guess that the tv networks still have the upperhand in the advertising market and to that end will try to push DVR viewers onto the advertisers in attempt to get them to pay for them. As the DVR market grows, and more people time-shift, no doubt push back from the advertisers will grow as well. That still adds up to a "we'll see".

The networks will probably wind up giving away DVRs sans monthly fees that don't allow you to fast-foward through commercials (this is to some degree already happening).

I already predicted above that advertisers will try to redesign some commercials to optimize for fast-forwarding. I'm 100% sure that will happen.

For now, in terms of TSCC, I think what matters is the LIVE+SD numbers (which aren't great) and the performance in the 18-34 (lacking data, sadly) and 18-49 demographic where it performed well enough in my opinion to be renewed.

By: frankj

frankj — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:18:17 +0000

Robert, do you think that the networks will ever embrace these numbers just as if people were viewing a show live? Or will they never give full credit because most people are fast-forwarding the commercials? And, to that end, do you think as DVR viewership continues to grow, will the networks and advertisers try to find a way to thwart that, or just abandon those numbers when it comes time to save or kill a show?

I predict that with a show like Sarah Connor, the real gain next season will be in new DVR viewers. Most of the people I know who don’t watch the show, don’t have time to watch. They would if they could record it. But yet will FOX care?

By: frankj

frankj — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 19:18:17 +0000

I predict that with a show like Sarah Connor, the real gain next season will be in new DVR viewers. Most of the people I know who don't watch the show, don't have time to watch. They would if they could record it. But yet will FOX care?

By: fred

fred — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 16:43:24 +0000

I agree about The CW sucking at their job, and it really is a shame cause Supernatural truly is a great show!

Another bad news is that Jericho won’t have a third season, I think we just get more proof of that every day now, sadly.

BTW, and off topic, I see you love Lost and are a fan of House too, as well as a supporter of the Winchester brothers, so I just want to recommand you, if you haven’t alreayd, to check out Life on NBC, when it’ll be back.

I love Supernatural, but if I have a top3 then Life is up there with House and Lost !

By: fred

fred — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 16:43:24 +0000

I agree about The CW sucking at their job, and it really is a shame cause Supernatural truly is a great show!

Another bad news is that Jericho won't have a third season, I think we just get more proof of that every day now, sadly.

BTW, and off topic, I see you love Lost and are a fan of House too, as well as a supporter of the Winchester brothers, so I just want to recommand you, if you haven't alreayd, to check out Life on NBC, when it'll be back.

I love Supernatural, but if I have a top3 then Life is up there with House and Lost !