Our Renew or Cancel? posts have been on hiatus since the new fall shows went dormant. Now we've got some data on the spring shows as well, and it's time to look at the numbers and take some guesses on who's coming back next fall and who's going away permanently.
I'm going to do this on a network by network basis, so that the different shows that are in question can be looked at vs. their competition both outside and inside their own network.
In the spirit of the NCAA Basketball tournament, the shows "On the Bubble" for CBS are fan favorites Jericho (Update: on 3/21/08, CBS announced it would not renew Jericho), Moonlight and Cane 5/13 Update: Both Cancelled.. Let's take a look at their chances for being renewed or cancelled.
UPDATE: Go here to see the 2008 Fall Schedule for CBS.
CBS "Bottom 20" Ranked by Season to Date Adults 18-49
| Rank | Show | STD Adults 18-49, Live+SD (000) | Adults 18-49, STD Timeslot position | STD Viewers, Live+SD (000) | STD Viewers, STD Timeslot position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | SHARK | 3,301 | 10,863 | ||
| 21 | KID NATION | 3,224 | 7,773 | ||
| 22 | GHOST WHISPERER | 3,221 | 8,716 | ||
| 23 | NUMB3RS | 3,161 | 9,008 | ||
| 24 | PRICE IS RIGHT PRIMETIME | 3,137 | 9,761 | ||
| 25 | BIG BROTHER 9-SUN | 3,125 | 6,462 | ||
| 26 | CANE | 3,125 | 3 | 8,934 | 3 |
| 27 | JERICHO (cancelled) | 3,025 | 2.4* | 6,863 | 2.8* |
| 28 | 48 Hours Mystery TUESDAY | 2,999 | 7,577 | ||
| 29 | WELCOME TO THE CAPTAIN (assumed cancelled) | 2,891 | 6,308 | ||
| 30 | MOONLIGHT | 2,887 | 2 | 7,495 | 2 |
| 31 | BIG BROTHER 9-WED | 2,840 | 5,778 | ||
| 32 | DEXTER | 2,786 | 7,284 | ||
| 33 | 48 Hours Mystery | 2,290 | 6,680 | ||
| 34 | CRIMETIME SATURDAY | 2,031 | 6,870 | ||
| 35 | POWER OF TEN (assumed cancelled) | 1,803 | 5,316 | ||
| 36 | CBS MOVIE SATURDAY | 1,717 | 5,554 | ||
| 37 | 48 Hours Mystery 9PM | 1,528 | 4,820 | ||
| 38 | VIVA LAUGHLIN (cancelled) | 1,518 | 6,504 | ||
| 39 | CRIMETIME SATURDAY 8PM | 1,456 | 5,188 |
*since Jericho hasn't had the same competition in its timeslot this spring, this is an average of its 5 broadcasts.
The Case for Moonlight
[UPDATE: Moonlight has been cancelled by CBS]
- Moonlight ratings put it #30 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #26 for average viewers.
- Moonlight aired in a lightly viewed timeslot on Fridays, so its relative timeslot ratings matter. There it was very slightly behind Friday Night Lights [18-49, 2.90m, Viewers, 6.21m] for the 18-49 lead, but solidly in second place for average viewers behind Women's Murder Club [18-49, 2.63m, Viewers, 8.94m].
- Moonlight gets another chance to prove itself this spring with 4 new episodes starting April 11.
The Case for Cane
[UPDATE: Cane has been cancelled by CBS]
- Cane ratings put it #26 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #20 for average viewers.
- Cane's Tuesday timeslot is more highly viewed than Moonlight's. There it was a consistent third, trailing both Law And Order: SVU [18-49, 5.79m, Viewers, 12.01m] and Boston Legal [18-49, 3.95m, Viewers, 9.89m] by significant margins, particularly in the 18-49 demo.
The Case for Jericho
[UPDATE: Jericho has been cancelled by CBS]
- Jericho ratings put it #27 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #29 for average viewers.
- Jericho hasn't had the same competition in its timeslot for its 5 outings so far, so comparisons are a bit trickier. It has consistently finished very far behind reruns of Law & Order: SVU in both total viewers and adults 18-49. Jericho typically edged out the ABC competition of either Boston Legal or Primetime in the 18-49 demo for second place, but consistently finished third for total viewers except the one night it moved up to second against the pathetic Quarterlife.
- Unlike Moonlight & Cane, which ran their new episodes generally vs. other new competition, Jericho had no new episode competition from NBC [except, Quarterlife] and faced Primetime specials 3 nights from ABC. So it needs to be noted that Jericho's performance comes against much weaker competition from the other broadcast networks.
My Guesses
It's possible that all 3 of these shows get the axe, but I think that's unlikely. But even with CBS scrambling after the writer's strike, I think there's is no chance they're all coming back.
My money is on a Moonlight renewal and Cane and Jericho cancellations.
Fans, what do you think will happen?
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Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
All three shows started out with a lot of promise, but only Moonlight has the momentum to carry it into another season. Those who write off Moonlight as ‘just another Angel’ have obviously never watched it. It’s like calling Cane ‘just another cop show’ or calling Jericho ‘just another serial disaster show’. The quality of acting, writing and production on Moonlight make it stand out as a show worth developing and following.
Definitely a “RENEW” for Moonlight.
All three shows started out with a lot of promise, but only Moonlight has the momentum to carry it into another season. Those who write off Moonlight as ‘just another Angel’ have obviously never watched it. It’s like calling Cane ‘just another cop show’ or calling Jericho ‘just another serial disaster show’. The quality of acting, writing and production on Moonlight make it stand out as a show worth developing and following.
Definitely a “RENEW” for Moonlight.
As a previous poster said, Jericho has the best possibility to grow an audience for the future. TV is not about straight Nielsen numbers anymore. People who see even a couple of episodes are hooked.
The future is niche marketing – even for the major networks. The Tivo, iTunes and DVR numbers for Jericho point the way to the way for networks to survive, which is why CBS brought it back in the first place. Jericho also brought many casual and non-network viewers back to the eye network for the first time in many years, and which most advertisers cannot usually reach at all these days. Although they seem to skew slightly older, they are a smart and involved bunch. The problem is Nielsen cannot seem to really crunch numbers and provide good data for advertisers to really appreciate what this means. And CBS is too cheap to do their own research, as MTV does.
Granted, Jericho has had ups and downs in writing and production. But the producers and actors are much more seasoned now as well. In addition, Jericho has showed that it is very flexible mythology. Even this mini-second season, Jericho proved it can be a better show with less money and episodes and still hold its own. The drop in ratings corresponds to losing the Gerald McRaney/Pam Reed middle American and Twilight Zone/Lost softer material that costs money and that some complained about, but others must have liked (I did). Remember that it was never designed as a 10 PM all-action show. With a decent lead-in, or back at 8 PM, it could really take off like the original Star Trek. As a more flexible show, Jericho could do two 8 episode mini-seasons one year, and a full 22 the next. Name another dramatic show that can do that. I’m also surprised that the networks haven’t experimented with late night repeats of cult faves. Jericho reruns would be huge overnight. CBS would be foolish to pull the plug now. It would also be a lot cheaper than betting on one of the few pilots they have cooking. They now know what worst-case it can do. But if CBS does make a second mistake and cancel it again, CW or SciFi would snap it up and do quite well for many years.
Overall, Jericho is a great living laboratory to see how TV is going to survive, and CBS can continue to explore the future of their medium with a minimum investment.
As a previous poster said, Jericho has the best possibility to grow an audience for the future. TV is not about straight Nielsen numbers anymore. People who see even a couple of episodes are hooked.
The future is niche marketing – even for the major networks. The Tivo, iTunes and DVR numbers for Jericho point the way to the way for networks to survive, which is why CBS brought it back in the first place. Jericho also brought many casual and non-network viewers back to the eye network for the first time in many years, and which most advertisers cannot usually reach at all these days. Although they seem to skew slightly older, they are a smart and involved bunch. The problem is Nielsen cannot seem to really crunch numbers and provide good data for advertisers to really appreciate what this means. And CBS is too cheap to do their own research, as MTV does.
Granted, Jericho has had ups and downs in writing and production. But the producers and actors are much more seasoned now as well. In addition, Jericho has showed that it is very flexible mythology. Even this mini-second season, Jericho proved it can be a better show with less money and episodes and still hold its own. The drop in ratings corresponds to losing the Gerald McRaney/Pam Reed middle American and Twilight Zone/Lost softer material that costs money and that some complained about, but others must have liked (I did). Remember that it was never designed as a 10 PM all-action show. With a decent lead-in, or back at 8 PM, it could really take off like the original Star Trek. As a more flexible show, Jericho could do two 8 episode mini-seasons one year, and a full 22 the next. Name another dramatic show that can do that. I’m also surprised that the networks haven’t experimented with late night repeats of cult faves. Jericho reruns would be huge overnight. CBS would be foolish to pull the plug now. It would also be a lot cheaper than betting on one of the few pilots they have cooking. They now know what worst-case it can do. But if CBS does make a second mistake and cancel it again, CW or SciFi would snap it up and do quite well for many years.
Overall, Jericho is a great living laboratory to see how TV is going to survive, and CBS can continue to explore the future of their medium with a minimum investment.
PV544, unfortunately, networks don’t renew or cancel based on originality or good stories. (I’ve never watched Jericho, so I can’t comment on how it compares to Moonlight, the only one of these three shows that I have watched.)
Also unfortunately, I think Moonlight is going to be renewed. I love Jason Dohring and want him to have a job, but not on a show that I can’t even bear to sit through.
PV544, unfortunately, networks don’t renew or cancel based on originality or good stories. (I’ve never watched Jericho, so I can’t comment on how it compares to Moonlight, the only one of these three shows that I have watched.)
Also unfortunately, I think Moonlight is going to be renewed. I love Jason Dohring and want him to have a job, but not on a show that I can’t even bear to sit through.
I think Moonlight will be renewed. It goes great with the CBS Friday night lineup and it has the strong fanbase who are really great at turning people onto the show. I know I’ve turned some of my friends onto it and they are hooked like I am.
The thing is, CBS will need to promote the show before its triumphant return on April 25th. The fans are doing all they can to spread the word about this show…and with CBS’s help, we can probably get the numbers to go up, up, up.
I think Moonlight will be renewed. It goes great with the CBS Friday night lineup and it has the strong fanbase who are really great at turning people onto the show. I know I’ve turned some of my friends onto it and they are hooked like I am.
The thing is, CBS will need to promote the show before its triumphant return on April 25th. The fans are doing all they can to spread the word about this show…and with CBS’s help, we can probably get the numbers to go up, up, up.
same here, i watch Moonlight and Jericho obsevily, like i did with The Class and CBS shut that one up, if they cancel Moonlight or Jericho i’ll be less fond for CBS
same here, i watch Moonlight and Jericho obsevily, like i did with The Class and CBS shut that one up, if they cancel Moonlight or Jericho i’ll be less fond for CBS
The renewal has to be Moonlight. It fits perfectly with GW, ML and then Numbers….a perfect Friday night. I would like to enlighten CBS that there are ALOT of “past” 49 yr old viewers out there….who, by the way, have $$ and like to spend it and are fanatical about Moonlight. We want OUR age group to be counted.
And, I too, like a lot of posters on all the fan blogs, am tired of investing my time and then getting pushed around like garbage AND doing the promo for the network, that the network should be doing itself. No one is paying us. It’s just for the love of the show. But they don’t give a crap. Nice way to treat the viewer. I say let’s do this in reverse. Boycott the products advertised on shows we dearly love and then get cancelled.
The renewal has to be Moonlight. It fits perfectly with GW, ML and then Numbers….a perfect Friday night. I would like to enlighten CBS that there are ALOT of “past” 49 yr old viewers out there….who, by the way, have $$ and like to spend it and are fanatical about Moonlight. We want OUR age group to be counted.
And, I too, like a lot of posters on all the fan blogs, am tired of investing my time and then getting pushed around like garbage AND doing the promo for the network, that the network should be doing itself. No one is paying us. It’s just for the love of the show. But they don’t give a crap. Nice way to treat the viewer. I say let’s do this in reverse. Boycott the products advertised on shows we dearly love and then get cancelled.
I think Jericho will get another partial renewal just as it did last year. Two cable networks are already syndicating the show, but did not complete the cycle before the new season started. Jericho is also the only show on CBS that compares in creativity to Heroes, Lost or 24.
No one appears to like Cane very much. You have to think that is gone.
I think Jericho will get another partial renewal just as it did last year. Two cable networks are already syndicating the show, but did not complete the cycle before the new season started. Jericho is also the only show on CBS that compares in creativity to Heroes, Lost or 24.
No one appears to like Cane very much. You have to think that is gone.
I would definately LOVE to see JERICHO renewed.
It’s different and exciting…a show with ‘heart’. A show with constant surprises.
A show with GREAT characters and fine actors.
I think one thing that hurt them was being on at 10 p.m. after BIG BROTHER that didn’t do well at all. I understand that CBS was trying to keep it away from AMERICAN IDOL and I guess CBS thought that BIG BROTHER would do better.
I will be heart-broken if CBS does not renew JERICHO. It is the only show that I have LOVED in a VERY long time.
PLEASE CBS, I’M BEGGING…RENEW JERICHO??
I would definately LOVE to see JERICHO renewed.
It’s different and exciting…a show with ‘heart’. A show with constant surprises.
A show with GREAT characters and fine actors.
I think one thing that hurt them was being on at 10 p.m. after BIG BROTHER that didn’t do well at all. I understand that CBS was trying to keep it away from AMERICAN IDOL and I guess CBS thought that BIG BROTHER would do better.
I will be heart-broken if CBS does not renew JERICHO. It is the only show that I have LOVED in a VERY long time.
PLEASE CBS, I’M BEGGING…RENEW JERICHO??
I like your guessing that MOONLIGHT probably will be the series to be renewed.
I was never a fan of Jericho or Cane…but good luck to those fans.
I am MOONLIGHT fan all the way through more seasons to come.
I like your guessing that MOONLIGHT probably will be the series to be renewed.
I was never a fan of Jericho or Cane…but good luck to those fans.
I am MOONLIGHT fan all the way through more seasons to come.
I really hope Jericho is renewed. I know the numbers don’t look so hot but I really think they did a great job this season, even with a lower budget and time constraints. It’s been different from season one but I have enjoyed the newer, faster pace.
I really hope Jericho is renewed. I know the numbers don’t look so hot but I really think they did a great job this season, even with a lower budget and time constraints. It’s been different from season one but I have enjoyed the newer, faster pace.