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ABC "On The Bubble" No More

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April 8th, 2008

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NBC stole whatever thunder I might have had from an "on the bubble" analysis by announcing their new schedule earlier than ever before.

I figure I'd better look at the ABC shows up for renewal before they do the same thing! To the best of my knowledge, the ABC shows with an uncertain futures are According to Jim, Boston Legal, Brothers & Sisters, Eli Stone, Here Come the Newlyweds, Just for Laughs, Men in Trees, Miss Guided, Notes from the Underbelly, October Road, Samantha Who?, Oprah's Big Give, Ugly Betty and Women's Murder Club.

The following shows have been cancelled, although there may or may not have been an announcement: Big Shots, Carpoolers, Cashmere Mafia, Men in Trees, and Cavemen. The following shows have been announced as returning in Fall 2008: Samantha Who?, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, Dirty Sexy Money, Private Practice, Pushing Daisies.

UPDATE: Go here to see the 2008 Fall Schedule for ABC.

On to the analysis:

Selected ABC Shows Ranked by Season to Date Adults 18-49, and Season to Date Viewers

STD Adults 18-49 Rank

Show

STD Adults 18-49, Live+SD (000)

STD Viewers Rank

STD Viewers, Live+SD (000)

8

SAMANTHA WHO? (renewed) 5,730

9

12,092

9

BROTHERS & SISTERS (renewed) 5,548

11

10,211

10

OPRAH'S BIG GIVE (cancelled) 5,437

10

11,670

15

HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS 4,340

21

7,919

16

BIG SHOTS (cancelled) 4,206

27

7,129

17

UGLY BETTY (renewed) 4,142

16

8,792

18

Supernanny (renewed) 3,932

26

7,269

19

DIRTY SEXY MONEY (renewed) 3,880

25

7,425

21

ELI STONE (renewed) 3,844

23

7,749

24

BOSTON LEGAL (remewed) 3,495

15

9,065

25

CAVEMEN (cancelled) 3,247

30

6,405

28

CASHMERE MAFIA (cancelled) 3,147

35

5,418

30

WIFE SWAP (renewed) 3,092

32

6,053

31

OCTOBER ROAD (cancelled) 2,821

41

4,779

33

NOTES FROM THE UNDERBELLY 2,653

40

4,833

34

WOMEN'S MURDER CLUB (cancelled) 2,630

18

8,401

36

CARPOOLERS (cancelled) 2,559

37

5,100

37

ACCORDING TO JIM 2,307

36

5,102

40

MEN IN TREES (cancelled) 2,131

34

5,742

43

JUST FOR LAUGHS 1,755

43

4,600

Guaranteed Return

  • Brothers & Sisters [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Oprah's Big Give Assuming Ms. Winfrey wants it to return. 5/13 Update: Apparently, she did not! It's cancelled.

Likely Return

  • Samantha Who? [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Here Come the Newlyweds

Toss Up

These shows did *worse* than Big Shots (already cancelled) in 18-49 but better than Dirty Sexy Money (already renewed). Confusing? Indeed.

  • Ugly Betty [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Supernanny [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Eli Stone Better in viewers than DSM, and just behind DSM in 18-49 adults. Also, has good DVR (Live+7) numbers. Update: Renewed

These two shows have above average viewership for ABC, but well below average 18-49 viewership.

  • Boston Legal Anecdotally, said to have great numbers with high income HH's. Update: Renewed
  • Women's Murder Club Only 31% of its viewers are in the 18-49 demo. Ouch. Update: Cancelled

Show Me The Money

  • According to Jim On ratings numbers alone, it should be gone, but reports are that its syndication prospects will likely save it.

Stick a Fork In Them, They're Done

  • Wife Swap [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • October Road, Update: Cancelled
  • Notes from the Underbelly, Update: Cancelled
  • Men In Trees [5/4 update: Producers have been told it has been cancelled]
  • Just For Laughs

There's Always A Special Rule For Somebody, Isn't There?

  • Miss Guided Nielsen's rule is that if an episode is designated a "special" then it doesn't accumulate its own season to date numbers. count in the network's weekly or season to date average ratings. Well, every single episode of Miss Guided was designated as a "special", so it doesn't appear in any have its own season to date aggregate numbers. It's almost as if ABC *knew* it wasn't going to do well before it aired and took it just to keep on the good side of director Ashton Kutcher. We've been Punk'd. Update: Cancelled.

Fans, what do you think will happen?

* owing to the vagaries of network show announcements or non announcements, this list may very well be incorrect. Comment with a link if you know better!

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

 
  • Robin

    Brothers and Sisters is already officially coming back. I believe I heard that a while ago.

  • Julia

    I could've sworn Samantha was already renewed. I hate forgetting things.

    Anyway, the only show I really care about has already been renewed (Pushing Daisies) but of the Toss Ups and Likelys, I'd bet on all of them coming back. I also wouldn't be too surprised if Wife Swap comes back as well.

    The most likely of any of those to be canceled is Eli Stone. Though Women's Murder Club could be on the chopping block as well if it fails to find viewers on Tuesday.

  • Julia

    I could’ve sworn Samantha was already renewed. I hate forgetting things.

    Anyway, the only show I really care about has already been renewed (Pushing Daisies) but of the Toss Ups and Likelys, I’d bet on all of them coming back. I also wouldn’t be too surprised if Wife Swap comes back as well.

    The most likely of any of those to be canceled is Eli Stone. Though Women’s Murder Club could be on the chopping block as well if it fails to find viewers on Tuesday.

  • Robin

    Brothers and Sisters is already officially coming back. I believe I heard that a while ago.

  • Denise

    I heard According to Jim was already picked up for next season. I remember being really annoyed when I heard that, because if any of the poor rated comedies were to come back, it should have been Carpoolers. :(

  • Denise

    I heard According to Jim was already picked up for next season. I remember being really annoyed when I heard that, because if any of the poor rated comedies were to come back, it should have been Carpoolers. :(

  • dearme

    Finally someone is talking about abc! Ugly Betty and Samantha Who? are surely gonna return and Miss Guided and Eli Stone are good enough for one more season and they will fare better if placed on the right day and right time. Supernanny and Wife Swap will be useful again next year against American Idol, so they'll keep them as well.

  • dearme

    Finally someone is talking about abc! Ugly Betty and Samantha Who? are surely gonna return and Miss Guided and Eli Stone are good enough for one more season and they will fare better if placed on the right day and right time. Supernanny and Wife Swap will be useful again next year against American Idol, so they’ll keep them as well.

  • Denise

    I'd also heard Samantha Who was already picked up along with Brothers and Sisters.

    Here is the list I had from ABC's early pickups announced on zap2it a couple months ago.

    ABC gives early pick ups for next season to nine of it's shows.

    ABC Returning for 2008-2009 season:
    Brothers & Sisters
    Desparate Housewives
    Dirty, Sexy Money
    Grey's Anatomy
    LOST
    Private Practice
    Pushing Daisies
    Samantha Who?
    Ugly Betty

  • Denise

    I’d also heard Samantha Who was already picked up along with Brothers and Sisters.

    Here is the list I had from ABC’s early pickups announced on zap2it a couple months ago.

    ABC gives early pick ups for next season to nine of it’s shows.

    ABC Returning for 2008-2009 season:
    Brothers & Sisters
    Desparate Housewives
    Dirty, Sexy Money
    Grey’s Anatomy
    LOST
    Private Practice
    Pushing Daisies
    Samantha Who?
    Ugly Betty

  • kayarn

    it would have been cheaper for abc to produce another season of according to jim than cancel it. thats why its getting another horribly unfunny season, though i believe it will be the last.

    ugly betty should be a lock to come back, though. the numbers are what they are, but id be very surprised to see it canceled.

  • kayarn

    it would have been cheaper for abc to produce another season of according to jim than cancel it. thats why its getting another horribly unfunny season, though i believe it will be the last.

    ugly betty should be a lock to come back, though. the numbers are what they are, but id be very surprised to see it canceled.

  • Julia

    dearme, I don't think Miss/Guided can improve. It had a very sweet lead in for its premiere, and managed to squander 10 million viewers. I don't see it coming back.

  • Julia

    dearme, I don’t think Miss/Guided can improve. It had a very sweet lead in for its premiere, and managed to squander 10 million viewers. I don’t see it coming back.

  • Bryan

    I liked October Road. It was a good show. It had great rating in the begining and then got lost in the shuffle when it came back. I think it had too long of a break.

  • Bryan

    I liked October Road. It was a good show. It had great rating in the begining and then got lost in the shuffle when it came back. I think it had too long of a break.

  • dearme

    10 million is good and it was 10:30

  • dearme

    10 million is good and it was 10:30

  • Julia

    dearme, it was 10 million out of a lead in of 20. And then it dropped to between 4 and 6 million with little to no competition. There's no way to spin those numbers as positive.

  • Julia

    dearme, it was 10 million out of a lead in of 20. And then it dropped to between 4 and 6 million with little to no competition. There’s no way to spin those numbers as positive.

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