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ABC "On The Bubble" No More

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April 8th, 2008

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NBC stole whatever thunder I might have had from an "on the bubble" analysis by announcing their new schedule earlier than ever before.

I figure I'd better look at the ABC shows up for renewal before they do the same thing! To the best of my knowledge, the ABC shows with an uncertain futures are According to Jim, Boston Legal, Brothers & Sisters, Eli Stone, Here Come the Newlyweds, Just for Laughs, Men in Trees, Miss Guided, Notes from the Underbelly, October Road, Samantha Who?, Oprah's Big Give, Ugly Betty and Women's Murder Club.

The following shows have been cancelled, although there may or may not have been an announcement: Big Shots, Carpoolers, Cashmere Mafia, Men in Trees, and Cavemen. The following shows have been announced as returning in Fall 2008: Samantha Who?, Ugly Betty, Brothers & Sisters, Dirty Sexy Money, Private Practice, Pushing Daisies.

UPDATE: Go here to see the 2008 Fall Schedule for ABC.

On to the analysis:

Selected ABC Shows Ranked by Season to Date Adults 18-49, and Season to Date Viewers

STD Adults 18-49 Rank

Show

STD Adults 18-49, Live+SD (000)

STD Viewers Rank

STD Viewers, Live+SD (000)

8

SAMANTHA WHO? (renewed) 5,730

9

12,092

9

BROTHERS & SISTERS (renewed) 5,548

11

10,211

10

OPRAH'S BIG GIVE (cancelled) 5,437

10

11,670

15

HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS 4,340

21

7,919

16

BIG SHOTS (cancelled) 4,206

27

7,129

17

UGLY BETTY (renewed) 4,142

16

8,792

18

Supernanny (renewed) 3,932

26

7,269

19

DIRTY SEXY MONEY (renewed) 3,880

25

7,425

21

ELI STONE (renewed) 3,844

23

7,749

24

BOSTON LEGAL (remewed) 3,495

15

9,065

25

CAVEMEN (cancelled) 3,247

30

6,405

28

CASHMERE MAFIA (cancelled) 3,147

35

5,418

30

WIFE SWAP (renewed) 3,092

32

6,053

31

OCTOBER ROAD (cancelled) 2,821

41

4,779

33

NOTES FROM THE UNDERBELLY 2,653

40

4,833

34

WOMEN'S MURDER CLUB (cancelled) 2,630

18

8,401

36

CARPOOLERS (cancelled) 2,559

37

5,100

37

ACCORDING TO JIM 2,307

36

5,102

40

MEN IN TREES (cancelled) 2,131

34

5,742

43

JUST FOR LAUGHS 1,755

43

4,600

Guaranteed Return

  • Brothers & Sisters [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Oprah's Big Give Assuming Ms. Winfrey wants it to return. 5/13 Update: Apparently, she did not! It's cancelled.

Likely Return

  • Samantha Who? [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Here Come the Newlyweds

Toss Up

These shows did *worse* than Big Shots (already cancelled) in 18-49 but better than Dirty Sexy Money (already renewed). Confusing? Indeed.

  • Ugly Betty [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Supernanny [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • Eli Stone Better in viewers than DSM, and just behind DSM in 18-49 adults. Also, has good DVR (Live+7) numbers. Update: Renewed

These two shows have above average viewership for ABC, but well below average 18-49 viewership.

  • Boston Legal Anecdotally, said to have great numbers with high income HH's. Update: Renewed
  • Women's Murder Club Only 31% of its viewers are in the 18-49 demo. Ouch. Update: Cancelled

Show Me The Money

  • According to Jim On ratings numbers alone, it should be gone, but reports are that its syndication prospects will likely save it.

Stick a Fork In Them, They're Done

  • Wife Swap [edit: announced as already renewed]
  • October Road, Update: Cancelled
  • Notes from the Underbelly, Update: Cancelled
  • Men In Trees [5/4 update: Producers have been told it has been cancelled]
  • Just For Laughs

There's Always A Special Rule For Somebody, Isn't There?

  • Miss Guided Nielsen's rule is that if an episode is designated a "special" then it doesn't accumulate its own season to date numbers. count in the network's weekly or season to date average ratings. Well, every single episode of Miss Guided was designated as a "special", so it doesn't appear in any have its own season to date aggregate numbers. It's almost as if ABC *knew* it wasn't going to do well before it aired and took it just to keep on the good side of director Ashton Kutcher. We've been Punk'd. Update: Cancelled.

Fans, what do you think will happen?

* owing to the vagaries of network show announcements or non announcements, this list may very well be incorrect. Comment with a link if you know better!

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

 
  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Julia, i have to concur. ABC (like all nets) will spin just about anything in its favor, but I don't see it putting any lipstick on this pig.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Julia, i have to concur. ABC (like all nets) will spin just about anything in its favor, but I don’t see it putting any lipstick on this pig.

  • dearme

    NCAA and Survivour are big competitors and Im pretty positive about its future. It really needs to be scheduled well, a comedy block or Dancing as a regular lead-in isnt too much to ask. Its a sitcom after all, they can't make it big all by themselves these days.

  • dearme

    NCAA and Survivour are big competitors and Im pretty positive about its future. It really needs to be scheduled well, a comedy block or Dancing as a regular lead-in isnt too much to ask. Its a sitcom after all, they can’t make it big all by themselves these days.

  • http://TVoholic.com fred

    Eli Stone got crushed by reruns of The Office last night on the demo, but it has a poor lead-in (rerun of Lost, never does well).

    Overall the show hasn't been doing too bad, and I have to say I really like it, it's been pretty much improving quality-wise episode after episode, so I sure hope ABC will renew it!

  • http://TVoholic.com fred

    Eli Stone got crushed by reruns of The Office last night on the demo, but it has a poor lead-in (rerun of Lost, never does well).

    Overall the show hasn’t been doing too bad, and I have to say I really like it, it’s been pretty much improving quality-wise episode after episode, so I sure hope ABC will renew it!

  • everwood

    I am hoping for some saving grace with Men In Tree's. Although the way ABC has moved it from one night to the next, on a few weeks then off a few then back on a few etc. I doubt it will return. I had high hopes for ABC coming into this season but the way they have acted and re-acted with the shows I am back to the point of boycotting their network. I will use up the shows that I watch that are still on but will not watch any new shows and once the others are gone I will put ABC where I have placed NBC not in my consideration of things to watch. And they wonder why they continue to lose viewers and cable continues to increase viewers.

  • everwood

    I am hoping for some saving grace with Men In Tree’s. Although the way ABC has moved it from one night to the next, on a few weeks then off a few then back on a few etc. I doubt it will return. I had high hopes for ABC coming into this season but the way they have acted and re-acted with the shows I am back to the point of boycotting their network. I will use up the shows that I watch that are still on but will not watch any new shows and once the others are gone I will put ABC where I have placed NBC not in my consideration of things to watch. And they wonder why they continue to lose viewers and cable continues to increase viewers.

  • kathy

    Just thought you should know that Supernanny and Wife Swap have both been renewed. It is part of the alternative series renewals.

    Like fred, I really hope Eli Stone gets renewed, I just love that show!!! It's sad to see the declining ratings………

  • kathy

    Just thought you should know that Supernanny and Wife Swap have both been renewed. It is part of the alternative series renewals.

    Like fred, I really hope Eli Stone gets renewed, I just love that show!!! It’s sad to see the declining ratings………

  • Snoodle

    To my knowledge Boston Legal does quite well…and I was certain that it was renewed for at least one more season early on in the game :s?

  • Snoodle

    To my knowledge Boston Legal does quite well…and I was certain that it was renewed for at least one more season early on in the game :s?

  • Alfie

    Here are the finals for last night. I wouldn't necessarily say Eli Stone got crushed by The Office

    ABC Eli Stone
    Viewers A18-49 A25-54
    5,150,000 1.6/4 2.0/5

    NBC The Office (R)-10pm
    Viewers A18-49 A25-54
    4,340,000 2.2/6 2.1/5
    NBC The Office (R)10:30pm
    Viewers A18-49 A25-54
    4,300,000 2.3/7 2.1/6

  • Alfie

    Here are the finals for last night. I wouldn’t necessarily say Eli Stone got crushed by The Office

    ABC Eli Stone
    Viewers A18-49 A25-54
    5,150,000 1.6/4 2.0/5

    NBC The Office (R)-10pm
    Viewers A18-49 A25-54
    4,340,000 2.2/6 2.1/5
    NBC The Office (R)10:30pm
    Viewers A18-49 A25-54
    4,300,000 2.3/7 2.1/6

  • Stacy

    October Road is one of the best!. There is a huge campaign out there for Road fans. My money is on it coming back…

  • Stacy

    October Road is one of the best!. There is a huge campaign out there for Road fans. My money is on it coming back…

  • Julia

    Alfie, it certainly got crushed in the 18-49 demo, which is what was put forth in this thread.

  • Julia

    Alfie, it certainly got crushed in the 18-49 demo, which is what was put forth in this thread.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Alfie, I agree but: the Office was repeats and still beat Eli in the demo. Though Eli gets a nice +7 DVR bounce, made up of almost all 18-49 year olds, the Office does better via DVR than Eli when it's not in reruns

    @Snoodle — I have seen no announcement on BL from ABC, though it's definitely possible that I missed it, I don't think they've issued the official word.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Robert Seidman

    @Alfie, I agree but: the Office was repeats and still beat Eli in the demo. Though Eli gets a nice +7 DVR bounce, made up of almost all 18-49 year olds, the Office does better via DVR than Eli when it’s not in reruns

    @Snoodle — I have seen no announcement on BL from ABC, though it’s definitely possible that I missed it, I don’t think they’ve issued the official word.

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