Bill and I are constantly trying to figure out how the television executives make decisions about renewing or cancelling shows and scheduling. It's fun for us. Yeah, I know, we're kind of quirky. Bill and I started looking at what most normal people probably would consider a fairly obscure data point: what % of a show's viewers are in the 18-49 age demographic. It turns out, or at least my hypothesis is that it does, that this little obscure data point is in fact meaningful to network executives. At least some of them, specifically at FOX and NBC.
Bill did a post on the top 20 shows with the highest % of 18-49 viewership. It's a very interesting list, containing several shows that I often see the mainstream media wonder aloud about why they haven't been cancelled. Shows of that ilk ranking in that list are the FOX animations American Dad (#4), King of the Hill (#6), 30 Rock (#10) and My Name is Earl (#16). I'm repurposing Bill's table below:
Highest % of Season to Date Viewers between age 18-49
|
Adults 18-49 STD Rank |
Programs |
Network |
STD Adults 18-49 Live+SD (000) |
STD Viewers Live+SD (000) |
Viewers STD Rank |
% of viewers between 18-49 |
|
|
SCRUBS |
NBC |
3,881 | 5,668 |
|
68.5% |
|
|
OFFICE |
NBC |
4,598 | 6,884 |
|
66.8% |
|
|
Family Guy |
FOX |
5,290 | 8,045 |
|
65.8% |
|
|
American Dad |
FOX |
4,225 | 6,595 |
|
64.1% |
|
|
Simpsons |
FOX |
5,050 | 8,057 |
|
62.7% |
|
|
KING OF THE HILL |
FOX |
4,271 | 6,837 |
|
62.5% |
|
8 |
HELL'S KITCHEN |
FOX |
7,158 | 11,849 |
|
60.4% |
|
|
Kitchen Nightmares |
FOX |
3,571 | 5,912 |
|
60.4% |
|
9 |
HEROES |
NBC |
6,958 | 11,575 |
|
60.1% |
|
|
30 Rock |
NBC |
3,681 | 6,131 |
|
60.0% |
|
|
Simpsons - SUN 7:30p |
FOX |
3,475 | 5,828 |
|
59.6% |
|
|
AMERICAN GLADIATORS |
NBC |
5,321 | 9,557 |
|
55.7% |
|
6 |
MOMENT OF TRUTH |
FOX |
7,799 | 14,177 |
12 |
55.0% |
|
|
PRISON BREAK |
FOX |
4,117 | 7,536 |
|
54.6% |
|
|
Biggest Loser 4 |
NBC |
4,280 | 7,839 |
|
54.6% |
|
|
MY NAME IS EARL |
NBC |
3,762 | 6,891 |
|
54.6% |
|
|
HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS |
ABC |
4,237 | 7,875 |
|
53.8% |
|
12 |
LOST |
ABC |
6,376 | 11,884 |
|
53.7% |
|
|
BIG SHOTS |
ABC |
3,807 | 7,129 |
|
53.4% |
|
|
TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES |
FOX |
5,189 | 9,755 |
|
53.2% |
Other interesting tidbits when looking at it this way - one of the favorite questions on our site is "Why the #!@ was Prison Break already renewed while Summer Glau and The Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles still sits on the bubble? Although I'm fairly sure the % of viewers 18-49 isn't the only factor, it is worth noting that although TSCC has a higher overall average 18-49 viewership than Prison Break, sans the one huge lead in from the NFL playoff game for its first episode and that lead narrows. TSCC also achieved its average in fewer episodes (an easier task). And there's this: Prison Break is #14 on Bill's list, whereas TSCC as at #20. I'm still hopeful Summer and Sarah "will be back", and hopefully combined with other factors, sitting at #20 on this list will take it off the bubble.
Bill's new top 20 is a hard list for any show with real scale (lots of total viewers) to make. This makes the achievement of Moment of Truth (#13) all the more impressive. Moment was one of only four shows on that list with total viewership averaging more than 10 million viewers, joining Hell's Kitchen (#7, though for only one episode), Heroes (#9), and LOST (#18). Gordon Ramsay and FOX also hold the #8 slot with Kitchen Nightmares, though it didn't even average 6 million viewers overall. Scrubs didn't average 6 million overall viewers either, and it's #1 on this list.
While Scrubs is ending its run on NBC this May and will not be back on the Peacock net next year, it's reportedly been picked up by ABC. Some mainstream media wonder why ABC would do that. Even NBC honcho Ben Silverman slung mud at ABC over this, insinuating that ABC has such an awful track record at developing new comedies that if as a result of picking up Scrubs "..they can go 1-for-21, good for them." The show is produced by ABC Studios so it's not a big shock I guess,, and my bet is ABC knew it ranked at the top of the highest % 18-49 list well before we did.
Again, I don't think this is by any means the only data point factoring in, or even a crucial data point at all for many shows, but, for other shows it is a lot more crucial. I imagine a similarly themed 18-34 list would be interesting too. Sadly, we do not have that data.
We got a comment asking why NBC's Medium would only air in the winter 2009 portion of NBC's schedule rather than Fall 2008 as well. I can't help but think it's positioning in the 18-49 demographic, both overall and as a percentage was a factor, because otherwise Medium has a very stable viewership, and more viewers than several shows NBC is running in both the fall and winter.
You can check out Bill's original post here.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
I think the Prison Break thing might be just because it’s a Fox produced show. With TSCC they negotiate the price with WB.
I think the Prison Break thing might be just because it's a Fox produced show. With TSCC they negotiate the price with WB.
Raijin, I’m sure that’s a big factor. We need to get a table up for all shows indicating who produces them. It would be a good reference.
Raijin, I'm sure that's a big factor. We need to get a table up for all shows indicating who produces them. It would be a good reference.
For everyone who’s interested. There is a rumor from a person who presumably knows someone on the inside that TSCC is going to be officially renewed this coming Monday. I wouldn’t hold my breath over someone’s word on the internet. But this maybe something to look out for on Monday.
For everyone who's interested. There is a rumor from a person who presumably knows someone on the inside that TSCC is going to be officially renewed this coming Monday. I wouldn't hold my breath over someone's word on the internet. But this maybe something to look out for on Monday.
Advertisers use a similar measure to what you report here when analyzing data to make TV buys. It’s called Viewers per Thousand Viewing Household or VPVH. Simply put, it’s the number of viewers of a show in a given age range in every thousand households tuned to that show.
It’s a way of determining which shows have the best concentration of an advertisers target audience without regard to sheer audience size.
Advertisers use a similar measure to what you report here when analyzing data to make TV buys. It's called Viewers per Thousand Viewing Household or VPVH. Simply put, it's the number of viewers of a show in a given age range in every thousand households tuned to that show.
It's a way of determining which shows have the best concentration of an advertisers target audience without regard to sheer audience size.
Isn’t Prison Break extremely popular overseas, so that’s another factor to take into consideration.
Isn't Prison Break extremely popular overseas, so that's another factor to take into consideration.
So this is good for Family Guy? Hoepfully they won’t be cancelled or on the bubble yet again.
So this is good for Family Guy? Hoepfully they won't be cancelled or on the bubble yet again.
@Carl, good info, thank you!
@Marc repeats of Family Guy routinely beat new episodes of The Simpsons in the 18-49 demo. I’ll be sad if TSCC gets cancelled, but not shocked. I’ll be completely shocked if Family Guy is not renewed.
@James B. Popularity overseas only matters if its via DVD and licensing the content. But if all the popularity is via BitTorrent, I doubt that is a big factor. Overseas loves, loves, loves SciFi shows too, so I imagine if they make more TSCC, they’ll gobble that up internationally as well.
@Carl, good info, thank you!
@Marc repeats of Family Guy routinely beat new episodes of The Simpsons in the 18-49 demo. I'll be sad if TSCC gets cancelled, but not shocked. I'll be completely shocked if Family Guy is not renewed.
@James B. Popularity overseas only matters if its via DVD and licensing the content. But if all the popularity is via BitTorrent, I doubt that is a big factor. Overseas loves, loves, loves SciFi shows too, so I imagine if they make more TSCC, they'll gobble that up internationally as well.
Thanks Robert, I kind of figured since networks are hungry for that 18-49 demo, Family Guy will be fine, even if the total numbers are not always in the top 20.
Thanks Robert, I kind of figured since networks are hungry for that 18-49 demo, Family Guy will be fine, even if the total numbers are not always in the top 20.
Robert,
Why to you seem to be getting more bearish on TSCC’s chances for renewal? A while ago, I remember you claiming TSCC was all but certainly going to be renewed. Then you speculated that it will probably get renewed, but maybe not for a full season order. Now today you say in the comments you would not be shocked if TSCC was non-renewed.
If my only network scifi fix in the Fall is Knight Rider (which has bad writing, bad plot, bad acting, and no Summer Glau), I will personally blame you.
(j/k)
Robert,
Why to you seem to be getting more bearish on TSCC's chances for renewal? A while ago, I remember you claiming TSCC was all but certainly going to be renewed. Then you speculated that it will probably get renewed, but maybe not for a full season order. Now today you say in the comments you would not be shocked if TSCC was non-renewed.
If my only network scifi fix in the Fall is Knight Rider (which has bad writing, bad plot, bad acting, and no Summer Glau), I will personally blame you.
(j/k)
@Outlander — I’m not bearish and I really haven’t changed my stance but the longer we go without hearing anything the more annoyed I get! Since they haven’t renewed it yet, and have renewed other shows, there’s no way for me to be “shocked”…
as for Knight Rider, blame the 12.7 million people who watched the movie and the 5.0 rating in the 18-49 demo..on a Saturday. I watched online weeks later, so I know I didn’t count in the ratings!
@Outlander — I'm not bearish and I really haven't changed my stance but the longer we go without hearing anything the more annoyed I get! Since they haven't renewed it yet, and have renewed other shows, there's no way for me to be “shocked”…
as for Knight Rider, blame the 12.7 million people who watched the movie and the 5.0 rating in the 18-49 demo..on a Saturday. I watched online weeks later, so I know I didn't count in the ratings!