Where Did The Primetime Broadcast Audience Go?

Categories: TV Business,TV Ratings Reference

Written By

April 16th, 2008

Ask Not Where the Broadcast Audience Went, It Went To Cable

We've seen that primetime broadcast network viewership has been on the decline since the early 80's. But we've also seen that primetime TV viewing by household has been relatively flat from the early 90's. Where did the primetime network audience go?

It went to cable.

primetimeaudience1984-2007c.gif

As the prime-time broadcast network audience began declining in the early 1980's, it shifted to cable networks, and by an ever increasing amount, basic/ad supported cable networks.

Some interesting trends jump out.

Over the past 20+ years, Independent Stations have joined up and become Network Affiliates. Note the ever growing list of networks below. I am looking for good data on the number of Independent stations vs. Network Affiliates over time, but conventional wisdom is that their numbers have shrunk substantially. That's why I colored both of those series blue. I think they should be considered part of the same viewership trend. Taken together, those two groups have gone from a rating of 54.5 to 32.7, a decline of 40%.

At the same time, Public broadcast primetime viewing has fallen from a HH rating of 2.6 to 1.4, a similar percentage decline of about 46%.

Although I was mostly coherent in the mid-80's, it was quite a surprise that in 1984-85 audiences were watching more Premium/Pay Cable than Ad/Basic cable.

What is undeniable is that the growth of Ad Supported/Basic cable viewing was not followed by a similar growth in premium/pay cable viewing. Premium/Pay cable has seen its share fall modestly during the period. It's hard to compare the Premium/Pay Cable numbers before 1999 with those after 1999 because of the definition change (noted below) though.

In fact, today more people watch "other" cable (shopping, music, etc) cable than watch premium/pay cable.

The last two seasons in our data do show an uptick for Network Affiliate+Independent ratings, but I think that might largely be due to the change in ratings data from Live to Live+7. We know that broadcast shows are time-shifted (DVR viewed) much more than are cable shows, so that could substantially explain the increase. Unfortunately, we don't have a breakout of data comparing the difference, so that's just a guess.

Primetime HH Rating by Season 1984-2007

Season

Network Affiliates

Independent

Public

Premium/Pay Cable

Ad/Basic Cable

Other Cable

1984-85

44.8

9.7

2.6

4.0

3.6

 

1985-86

45.1

10.1

2.5

3.4

3.9

 

1986-87

43.3

10.5

2.7

3.3

4.7

 

1987-88

40.1

11.5

2.5

3.8

6.0

 

1988-89

38.7

11.7

2.4

3.9

7.5

 

1989-90

36.5

11.9

2.2

3.6

9.0

 

1990-91*

38.4

7.8

2.3

3.4

11.6

 

1991-92

41.0

5.5

2.1

3.1

12.8

 

1992-93

40.4

5.7

2.2

3.0

13.6

 

1993-94

40.5

6.1

2.2

3.0

14.1

 

1994-95

37.8

6.4

2.2

3.1

15.9

 

1995-96

35.7

6.6

2.1

3.3

18.0

 

1996-97

33.2

6.7

2.1

3.7

19.8

 

1997-98

31.4

6.7

2.0

3.9

22.3

 

1998-99

31.3

7.2

2.0

4.2

24.1

 

1999-00

34.7

2.1

2.0

3.5

24.0

1.9

2000-01

32.6

2.4

1.9

3.5

26.0

2.1

2001-02

30.3

2.5

1.6

3.5

28.2

2.1

2002-03

29.6

2.6

1.7

3.6

29.4

2.4

2003-04

28.9

2.9

1.6

3.4

30.9

2.9

2004-05

27.8

3.7

1.6

3.1

32.8

3.2

2005-06**

29.1

2.0

1.5

2.8

33.5

3.4

2006-07***

31.5

1.2

1.4

2.5

33.1

2.9

Network Affiliates:
1984-90: ABC, CBS, NBC affiliates
1991-1999: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX Affiliates
1999-December 25, 2005: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, PAX affiliates
December 26, 2005-January 29 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, PAX affiliates
January 30, 2006-February 26, 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, PAX affiliates
February 27, 2006-August 27, 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, PAX affiliates
August 28, 2006 - September 3, 2006 : ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, AZA, PAX affiliates
September 4, 2006 - Present : ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, AZA, PAX, MNT affiliates

Independent:
1984-90: Commercial independent stations including FOX affiliates and TBS
1991-99: Commericial independent stations including WB, UPN affiiliates and superstations except forTBS.
1999-present: Commercial independent stations including Telemundo and Univision affiliates. Excludes TBS

Public:
PBS affiliates

Ad Supported/Basic Cable:
1999-present: Viewing to advertiser supported cable networks. Includes TBS and WGN cable.
1984-99: Tuning to basic cable including Pay-Per-View
1991-1999: Tuning to basic cable including TBS and Pay-Per-View.

Premium/Pay Cable:

1999-present: Viewing to premium pay cable services.
1984-99: Cable Subscribers receiving at least one premium channel. This does not include Pay-Per-View.

All Other Cable:
1999-present: tuning to cable networks that are neither ad-supported nor premium pay, includes pay-per-view, interactive channels, home shopping channels, and audio only feeds.

*Effective 1991, FOX and TBS changed from Independents to Network Affiliates and Basic Cable Respectively.
**Combination of Live data and Live+7 data.
***Live+7 data
All years prior to 2005-6 are Live Data.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

 
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