Ask Not Where the Broadcast Audience Went, It Went To Cable
We've seen that primetime broadcast network viewership has been on the decline since the early 80's. But we've also seen that primetime TV viewing by household has been relatively flat from the early 90's. Where did the primetime network audience go?
It went to cable.
As the prime-time broadcast network audience began declining in the early 1980's, it shifted to cable networks, and by an ever increasing amount, basic/ad supported cable networks.
Some interesting trends jump out.
Over the past 20+ years, Independent Stations have joined up and become Network Affiliates. Note the ever growing list of networks below. I am looking for good data on the number of Independent stations vs. Network Affiliates over time, but conventional wisdom is that their numbers have shrunk substantially. That's why I colored both of those series blue. I think they should be considered part of the same viewership trend. Taken together, those two groups have gone from a rating of 54.5 to 32.7, a decline of 40%.
At the same time, Public broadcast primetime viewing has fallen from a HH rating of 2.6 to 1.4, a similar percentage decline of about 46%.
Although I was mostly coherent in the mid-80's, it was quite a surprise that in 1984-85 audiences were watching more Premium/Pay Cable than Ad/Basic cable.
What is undeniable is that the growth of Ad Supported/Basic cable viewing was not followed by a similar growth in premium/pay cable viewing. Premium/Pay cable has seen its share fall modestly during the period. It's hard to compare the Premium/Pay Cable numbers before 1999 with those after 1999 because of the definition change (noted below) though.
In fact, today more people watch "other" cable (shopping, music, etc) cable than watch premium/pay cable.
The last two seasons in our data do show an uptick for Network Affiliate+Independent ratings, but I think that might largely be due to the change in ratings data from Live to Live+7. We know that broadcast shows are time-shifted (DVR viewed) much more than are cable shows, so that could substantially explain the increase. Unfortunately, we don't have a breakout of data comparing the difference, so that's just a guess.
Primetime HH Rating by Season 1984-2007
|
Season |
Network Affiliates |
Independent |
Public |
Premium/Pay Cable |
Ad/Basic Cable |
Other Cable |
| 1984-85 |
44.8 |
9.7 |
2.6 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
|
| 1985-86 |
45.1 |
10.1 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
|
| 1986-87 |
43.3 |
10.5 |
2.7 |
3.3 |
4.7 |
|
| 1987-88 |
40.1 |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
6.0 |
|
| 1988-89 |
38.7 |
11.7 |
2.4 |
3.9 |
7.5 |
|
| 1989-90 |
36.5 |
11.9 |
2.2 |
3.6 |
9.0 |
|
| 1990-91* |
38.4 |
7.8 |
2.3 |
3.4 |
11.6 |
|
| 1991-92 |
41.0 |
5.5 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
12.8 |
|
| 1992-93 |
40.4 |
5.7 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
13.6 |
|
| 1993-94 |
40.5 |
6.1 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
14.1 |
|
| 1994-95 |
37.8 |
6.4 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
15.9 |
|
| 1995-96 |
35.7 |
6.6 |
2.1 |
3.3 |
18.0 |
|
| 1996-97 |
33.2 |
6.7 |
2.1 |
3.7 |
19.8 |
|
| 1997-98 |
31.4 |
6.7 |
2.0 |
3.9 |
22.3 |
|
| 1998-99 |
31.3 |
7.2 |
2.0 |
4.2 |
24.1 |
|
| 1999-00 |
34.7 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
3.5 |
24.0 |
1.9 |
| 2000-01 |
32.6 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
3.5 |
26.0 |
2.1 |
| 2001-02 |
30.3 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
3.5 |
28.2 |
2.1 |
| 2002-03 |
29.6 |
2.6 |
1.7 |
3.6 |
29.4 |
2.4 |
| 2003-04 |
28.9 |
2.9 |
1.6 |
3.4 |
30.9 |
2.9 |
| 2004-05 |
27.8 |
3.7 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
32.8 |
3.2 |
| 2005-06** |
29.1 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
33.5 |
3.4 |
| 2006-07*** |
31.5 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
33.1 |
2.9 |
Network Affiliates:
1984-90: ABC, CBS, NBC affiliates
1991-1999: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX Affiliates
1999-December 25, 2005: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, PAX affiliates
December 26, 2005-January 29 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, PAX affiliates
January 30, 2006-February 26, 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, PAX affiliates
February 27, 2006-August 27, 2006: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, PAX affiliates
August 28, 2006 - September 3, 2006 : ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, AZA, PAX affiliates
September 4, 2006 - Present : ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, WB, UPN, UNI, TEL, TF, AZA, PAX, MNT affiliates
Independent:
1984-90: Commercial independent stations including FOX affiliates and TBS
1991-99: Commericial independent stations including WB, UPN affiiliates and superstations except forTBS.
1999-present: Commercial independent stations including Telemundo and Univision affiliates. Excludes TBS
Public: PBS affiliates
Ad Supported/Basic Cable:
1999-present: Viewing to advertiser supported cable networks. Includes TBS and WGN cable.
1984-99: Tuning to basic cable including Pay-Per-View
1991-1999: Tuning to basic cable including TBS and Pay-Per-View.
Premium/Pay Cable:
1999-present: Viewing to premium pay cable services.
1984-99: Cable Subscribers receiving at least one premium channel. This does not include Pay-Per-View.
All Other Cable:
1999-present: tuning to cable networks that are neither ad-supported nor premium pay, includes pay-per-view, interactive channels, home shopping channels, and audio only feeds.
*Effective 1991, FOX and TBS changed from Independents to Network Affiliates and Basic Cable Respectively.
**Combination of Live data and Live+7 data.
***Live+7 data
All years prior to 2005-6 are Live Data.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 Nielsen Media Research, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
I can tell you where they went. It is because of a little invention….(I think Al Gore invented it):). its call the INTERNET. That is why TV is down. People are on-line playing games and on Myspace and youtube. Its a shame, but its the truth.
I can tell you where they went. It is because of a little invention….(I think Al Gore invented it):). its call the INTERNET. That is why TV is down. People are on-line playing games and on Myspace and youtube. Its a shame, but its the truth.
Bryan: BZZT. Wrong answer. Despite the Internet, TV viewing in the aggregate is not down during primetime, although last year was the first year ever where it stalled a little bit.
Apparently young people can watch American Idol, surf the web, send instant messages and text messages all at the same time.
Bryan: BZZT. Wrong answer. Despite the Internet, TV viewing in the aggregate is not down during primetime, although last year was the first year ever where it stalled a little bit.
Apparently young people can watch American Idol, surf the web, send instant messages and text messages all at the same time.
Bryan: BZZT. Wrong answer. Despite the Internet, TV viewing in the aggregate is not down during primetime, although last year was the first year ever where it stalled a little bit.
Apparently young people can watch American Idol, surf the web, send instant messages and text messages all at the same time.
Indeed. One of the reasons I did this post was because there is so much wrong information out there as conventional wisdom. Internet time has certainly increased, but not at the expense of overall primetime TV viewing.
Total primetime TV viewing by household is effectively the same since the early 90′s, it’s just *what* people watch that has changed.
Indeed. One of the reasons I did this post was because there is so much wrong information out there as conventional wisdom. Internet time has certainly increased, but not at the expense of overall primetime TV viewing.
Total primetime TV viewing by household is effectively the same since the early 90's, it's just *what* people watch that has changed.
Indeed. One of the reasons I did this post was because there is so much wrong information out there as conventional wisdom. Internet time has certainly increased, but not at the expense of overall primetime TV viewing.
Total primetime TV viewing by household is effectively the same since the early 90's, it's just *what* people watch that has changed.
why does your graph look like the seashore? all you need is a ferris wheel and it’s santa monica.
why does your graph look like the seashore? all you need is a ferris wheel and it's santa monica.
why does your graph look like the seashore? all you need is a ferris wheel and it's santa monica.
oh man, secret is out. Most of Bill’s charts are really just arial views lifted from Microsoft’s flight simulator. I hadn’t really noticed just how much the shore it does look like, but now that you bring it up, I can’t stop noticing it!
oh man, secret is out. Most of Bill's charts are really just arial views lifted from Microsoft's flight simulator. I hadn't really noticed just how much the shore it does look like, but now that you bring it up, I can't stop noticing it!
oh man, secret is out. Most of Bill's charts are really just arial views lifted from Microsoft's flight simulator. I hadn't really noticed just how much the shore it does look like, but now that you bring it up, I can't stop noticing it!
My Internet answer was a sarcastic one. “What” people watch has changed dramatically. No pun intended. When you were posting the flash back ratings of the 90′s and 80′s year the top 20 was littered with comedy. Not in the 2000′s. Dramas and sad to say reality. I wonder if it is 18-49 year olds that made this change. Im 32, back 10-15 years ago when I was younger, I watched those comedies. I have grown and now I love the drama’s. Maybe its that way for a majority and we are still in the 18-49 bracket. I know your going to say that Kids were born after me too but.. kids have a lot more technology to use and TV is not the only thing used for entertainment like it may have been back then. Just a opinion. I didn’t really even think it thru just came as I was writing…so no making fun.
My Internet answer was a sarcastic one. “What” people watch has changed dramatically. No pun intended. When you were posting the flash back ratings of the 90's and 80's year the top 20 was littered with comedy. Not in the 2000's. Dramas and sad to say reality. I wonder if it is 18-49 year olds that made this change. Im 32, back 10-15 years ago when I was younger, I watched those comedies. I have grown and now I love the drama's. Maybe its that way for a majority and we are still in the 18-49 bracket. I know your going to say that Kids were born after me too but.. kids have a lot more technology to use and TV is not the only thing used for entertainment like it may have been back then. Just a opinion. I didn't really even think it thru just came as I was writing…so no making fun.
My Internet answer was a sarcastic one. “What” people watch has changed dramatically. No pun intended. When you were posting the flash back ratings of the 90's and 80's year the top 20 was littered with comedy. Not in the 2000's. Dramas and sad to say reality. I wonder if it is 18-49 year olds that made this change. Im 32, back 10-15 years ago when I was younger, I watched those comedies. I have grown and now I love the drama's. Maybe its that way for a majority and we are still in the 18-49 bracket. I know your going to say that Kids were born after me too but.. kids have a lot more technology to use and TV is not the only thing used for entertainment like it may have been back then. Just a opinion. I didn't really even think it thru just came as I was writing…so no making fun.
Fair enough Bryan. I think we’ll see continued attempts at shifting back to comedy. But comedy hits are a double-edged sword. You wind up having to pay $6 million an episode just to the actors if it gets to theSeinfeld or Friends level.
Reality is much cheaper to make, so the margins, even with lower ratings are sometimes better. But, it’s seemingly impossible to syndicate reality — although if there isn’t already I believe there will wind up being a cable channel that does nothing but run old reality shows 24×7!
If ABC is considering keeping According to Jim around due to syndication revenues, imagine just how badly CBS wants to find the next Two and a Half Men. This is why I believe we will see at least an attempt at swinging the pendulum back towards comedies.
Fair enough Bryan. I think we'll see continued attempts at shifting back to comedy. But comedy hits are a double-edged sword. You wind up having to pay $6 million an episode just to the actors if it gets to theSeinfeld or Friends level.
Reality is much cheaper to make, so the margins, even with lower ratings are sometimes better. But, it's seemingly impossible to syndicate reality — although if there isn't already I believe there will wind up being a cable channel that does nothing but run old reality shows 24×7!
If ABC is considering keeping According to Jim around due to syndication revenues, imagine just how badly CBS wants to find the next Two and a Half Men. This is why I believe we will see at least an attempt at swinging the pendulum back towards comedies.
Fair enough Bryan. I think we'll see continued attempts at shifting back to comedy. But comedy hits are a double-edged sword. You wind up having to pay $6 million an episode just to the actors if it gets to theSeinfeld or Friends level.
Reality is much cheaper to make, so the margins, even with lower ratings are sometimes better. But, it's seemingly impossible to syndicate reality — although if there isn't already I believe there will wind up being a cable channel that does nothing but run old reality shows 24×7!
If ABC is considering keeping According to Jim around due to syndication revenues, imagine just how badly CBS wants to find the next Two and a Half Men. This is why I believe we will see at least an attempt at swinging the pendulum back towards comedies.