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Nielsen Ratings May 14: FOX Wins, Idol Set for David vs. David Battle

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May 15th, 2008

Scoreboard for Weds. May 14, 2008 FOX CBS ABC NBC CW
Total Viewers (million) 15.30 10.56 7.63 6.64 3.27
Rating/Share: Adults 18-49 5.6/15 2.5/7 2.1/6 2.4/6 1.6/4

American Idol was on, so FOX won the night in a cakewalk.  CBS was second in both viewers and the 18-49 demographic.  ABC was third in the demo, but fourth in viewers, and NBC was fourth in the demo in third in total viewers.

But Idol will have to add about 6 million viewers to last night's numbers to reach 30 million for the finale.  I think it will add plenty of viewers, but not sure about that many.  I think a couple of things probably hurt the show this year: 1.) my AI loving friends tell me it's been clear for about the last 2 months that it was going to be a battle of Davids in the finals, so there wasn't much mysterly, 2.) easy availability of individual performances on YouTube.  More interesting me FOX-wise was that in the season finale of ‘Til Death (which FOX is keeping) versus the season/series finale for Back to You, which FOX isn't keeping and nobody picked up for their fall schedule, Back to You won in both viewers and the 18-49 demo.

I think a few factors were at play in FOX's decision.  Despite last night, for most of the season the season the shows had very similar numbers in the demo.  The other two reasons are speculative, but I figure Back to You was more expensive to make.  The last reason is also speculative, but I've read some stuff that leads me to believe that the producers of Back to You and the FOX execs didn't get along all that well.

The season finale of Tyra Banks' America's Next Top Model showed some strength on the CW.  It averaged over 4.6m viewers for the hour with a 2.3/7 in the demo. Its best performance of the year.  Also, in the second half hour it had over 5.1 million viewers and a 2.6/7 in the demo.  Demo numbers, the likes of which the CW never ever sees.  Nice to see ANTM close out strong.

The million dollar spectacular primetime version of The Price is Right was kind of eh on CBS, as was two hours worth of Deal or No Deal on NBC.  NBC fared a little better with Law & Order at 10pm.  Both Criminal Minds and CSI: NY performed well for CBS.  Outside of American Idol, they were the most watched shows of the evening and had the best 18-49 demo performances other than Idol as well.  

Boston Legal struggled to find viewers at 10pm, but it at least performed better in the 18-49 demo (2.3/6) than say, Women's Murder Club, which was cancelled.  But both Wife Swap (2.5/8) and Supernanny (2.4/6) performed better for ABC in the 18-49 demo.  In the fall, in a shortened final season Boston Legal will be on Monday nights at 10pm following Dancing with the Stars.

Good news bad news on the FOX front.  The good news is that we won't have to wait long for the return of Summer Glau and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.  It'll be on Mondays at 8pm starting in the fall.  The bad news is, it doesn't appear that we're getting a full season of it with Dollhouse currently scheduled to take the timeslot somewhere during mid season.  I don't believe it will really wind up exactly like that because the Terminator movie is set for release next May so it's hard for me to fathom we won't see at least a little Summer next spring.  Bill should have the FOX schedule with comparisons to last fall up soon.

Wednesday Night's Details:

Time Network Show Viewers (Millons) 18-49 Rating/Share
8:00 CBS The Price is Right 7.33 1.4/4
  NBC Deal or No Deal (8p-10p) 7.14 1.9/5
  ABC Wife Swap 6.45 2.5/8
  CW Americas Next Top Model 4.62 2.3/7
  FOX 'Til Death 5.79 2.2/7
         
8:30 FOX Back to You 6.87 2.5/7
         
9:00 CBS Criminal Minds 12.71 3.0/7
  CW Farmer Wants a Wife 1.92 0.9/2
  ABC Supernanny 5.79 2.4/6
  FOX American Idol 24.26 9.0/22
         
10:00 ABC Boston Legal 7.68 2.3/6
  NBC Law & Order 8.35 2.7/7
  CBS CSI: NY 11.63 3.1/8

Nielsen Ratings Source: Nielsen Media Research. Full night's results available via Marc Berman/Mediaweek.

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(37) Comments - Add Yours!

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  1. angie

    What is really impressive is how many viewers Farmer Wants a Wife lost out of ANTM. That’s awesome!

  2. angie

    What is really impressive is how many viewers Farmer Wants a Wife lost out of ANTM. That’s awesome!

  3. There was a reason I didn’t mention that show at all, Angie : )

  4. There was a reason I didn’t mention that show at all, Angie : )

  5. Denise

    I’m really looking forward to both Fringe and Dollhouse, but I also hope that they move it and leave Terminator at 8 Mondays in the Spring. I already have 2 shows on Mondays at 8 with Chuck and How I Met Your Mother.

  6. Denise

    I’m really looking forward to both Fringe and Dollhouse, but I also hope that they move it and leave Terminator at 8 Mondays in the Spring. I already have 2 shows on Mondays at 8 with Chuck and How I Met Your Mother.

  7. tom

    i keep defending BL.. and i’m not gonna stop LOL i acknowledge if these were regular numbers then it’s not good… but am i crazy? they replaced men in trees. compared to the last MIT… this is 2.5 million MORE viewers and .8 more in the demo. that’s a really big improvement especially when you consider the shift in timeslot, then being off last week… then coming back… and literally NO promotion. people search this show out.

    you compare WMC a bit with BL.
    Dancing did 17 million – WMC did 7.5 million.
    Supernanny 6 million – BL 7.6

    In the Tuersday 10 slot, BL would have had 3 million more and half a point int demo more.

    i think they are doing a good job for where they are. not blockbuster show like housewives or a csi spinoff would do but solid with a loyal following.

    i know it dropped .1 in the demo after Supernanny but it’s definitely not the same audience. it’s like the network shifts from woman mode to BL mode.

    i think that’s the main reason ABC doesn’t want it… BL doesn’t fit the female thing abc has going for it. but i’m still in denial it’s the last year. :-)

  8. dearme

    Tell me, aren’t DVR numbers as important and determining as LIVE numbers?

  9. dearme

    Tell me, aren’t DVR numbers as important and determining as LIVE numbers?

  10. My opinion is: no, the DVR are numbers are not as important. But consider this, on average about 50% of the overall DVR numbers are IN the results you’re looking at (live plus same day). For Idol around 70% of its overall DVR numbers are already baked in. For scripted dramas it’s usually less, ranging typically from 25%-55% of seven day DVR usage being baked into the live plus same day numbers. Not as important is not the same thing as “doesn’t matter at all”, especially as most DVR viewing adds back to the 18-49 demo.

  11. My opinion is: no, the DVR are numbers are not as important. But consider this, on average about 50% of the overall DVR numbers are IN the results you’re looking at (live plus same day). For Idol around 70% of its overall DVR numbers are already baked in. For scripted dramas it’s usually less, ranging typically from 25%-55% of seven day DVR usage being baked into the live plus same day numbers. Not as important is not the same thing as “doesn’t matter at all”, especially as most DVR viewing adds back to the 18-49 demo.

  12. What the industry says publicly are that the C+3 commercial ratings (within 3 days of broadcast) are what determines value. Sadly, we don’t get C+3 data from Nielsen.

    In a single week last fall we saw some C+3 data and the numbers were similar to the Live program viewing numbers, but that was one week for a limited number of shows, so I’m not ready to draw a big conclusion based on it.

  13. dearme

    So if there is a show drawing 20 million people live and there is another show drawing 10 million live and 10 mil more in next 2 days and demo numbers are equal then advertisers would pay the same price for both?

  14. Dearme, I can’t say as nothing close to that has ever happened. The shows with the highest percentage of DVR viewing typically have less than 10 million viewers total over 7 days and even then, the percentages are around 35% via DVR. You’d be looking for something to have AS much viewing via DVR as it had live. It may happen someday, but hasn’t yet.

  15. Dearme, I can’t say as nothing close to that has ever happened. The shows with the highest percentage of DVR viewing typically have less than 10 million viewers total over 7 days and even then, the percentages are around 35% via DVR. You’d be looking for something to have AS much viewing via DVR as it had live. It may happen someday, but hasn’t yet.

  16. dearme

    what I meant was do advertisers value the DVR audiences?

  17. As Bill said, inside of 3 days, the answer is allegedly yes. They are supposedly buying and selling ads based on the commercial C3 ratings (live plus 3 days of DVR viewing), but as Bill said, we never see those numbers and the one time that we did, they weren’t much different at all from the LIVE+SD numbers.

  18. As Bill said, inside of 3 days, the answer is allegedly yes. They are supposedly buying and selling ads based on the commercial C3 ratings (live plus 3 days of DVR viewing), but as Bill said, we never see those numbers and the one time that we did, they weren’t much different at all from the LIVE+SD numbers.

  19. dearme

    thanks

  20. Elyk988

    Next year will probably be ‘Til Death’s last. I see no incentive for FOX to keep it with its low viewers and demo.

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