TV Ratings

TVbytheNumbers Cancellation Index

May 18th, 2008

Why Did Your Favorite Prime-Time Show Get Cancelled?

Last Fall we tried to handicap the new show race in a variety of ways, but we always struggled to rank the shows from different networks as a group with the data we had available. Because a 6m viewer show would be headed for a quick cancellation at CBS, but for the CW it would be their top show. After trying a few metrics, I think we've found something we'll use next Fall that, at least for now, I'll call the TVbytheNumbers Cancellation Index.

Applying the Cancellation Index to shows from this season's results showed a pretty definitive line above which a show was renewed and below which a show was very vulnerable to cancellation. To get the Index value for each show, I took its season to date adults 18-49 viewership for its standard timeslot airings only and divided it by the season to date average adults 18-49 viewership for the show's own network.

If the show was at or above 93% of its networks average results for adults 18-49 it was pretty safe. Only 3 shows above that level were cancelled, and one, Oprah's Big Give, was only cancelled because Ms. Winfrey wanted it gone, ABC would have welcomed it back.

A number of shows stand out, particularly Bionic Woman. Minus the hype, it didn't perform that badly. Maybe if it had entered the season with modest expectations instead of being the hope to save NBC it might have survived. Big Shots fans might also cry foul. However, one thing it's hard for our data to take into account is the implied benefits of a good lead-in that were squandered. That might be a reason for Big Shots, Moonlight & Jericho demise. Moonlight fans note that your show had the lowest Index of any scripted show in the CBS line up (and Dexter, brought in to fill strike holes).

PROGRAMS	Network	Show 18-49 (000)	Network Average 18-49	Cancel index	Fate
American Idol-TUESDAY	FOX	14,111	5,290	2.67
American Idol-WEDNESDAY	FOX	13,347	5,290	2.52
AMERICA'S Top Model-3	CW	3,032	1,270	2.39
NBC Sunday Night Football	NBC	8,291	3,500	2.37
Desperate Housewives	ABC	8,514	3,710	2.29
GREY'S ANATOMY-THU 9PM	ABC	7,457	3,710	2.01
HEROES	NBC	6,958	3,500	1.99
AMERICA'S Top Model-4	CW	2,418	1,270	1.90
DANCING W/THE STARS-MON	ABC	6,922	3,710	1.87
LOST	ABC	6,389	3,710	1.72
Dancing with the Stars	ABC	6,225	3,710	1.68
DANCING W/STARS RESULT-TU	ABC	6,200	3,710	1.67
SURVIVOR: CHINA	CBS	6,083	3,670	1.66
CSI	CBS	5,902	3,670	1.61
Two and a Half Men	CBS	5,890	3,670	1.60
Extreme Makeover:HOME ED.	ABC	5,913	3,710	1.59
HOUSE	FOX	8,405	5,290	1.59
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK	NBC	5,551	3,500	1.59
AMERICAN GLADIATORS	NBC	5,321	3,500	1.52
SURVIVOR: MICRONESIA	CBS	5,507	3,670	1.50
MOMENT OF TRUTH	FOX	7,797	5,290	1.47
BEAUTY AND THE GEEK-2	CW	1,870	1,270	1.47
Friday Night Smackdown	CW	1,836	1,270	1.45
Smallville	CW	1,824	1,270	1.44
Law And Order:SVU	NBC	4,983	3,500	1.42
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS	ABC	5,215	3,710	1.41
One Tree Hill	CW	1,767	1,270	1.39
OFFICE	NBC	4,789	3,500	1.37
CSI: MIAMI	CBS	5,020	3,670	1.37
APPRENTICE 7	NBC	4,749	3,500	1.36
BROTHERS & Sisters	ABC	5,033	3,710	1.36
Rules of Engagement	CBS	4,968	3,670	1.35
OPRAH'S BIG GIVE	ABC	4,848	3,710	1.31	cancelled
BIONIC WOMAN	NBC	4,560	3,500	1.30	cancelled
SAMANTHA WHO?	ABC	4,805	3,710	1.30
Biggest Loser 5	NBC	4,512	3,500	1.29
DEAL OR NO DEAL-MON	NBC	4,468	3,500	1.28
HELL'S KITCHEN	FOX	6,750	5,290	1.28
OLD CHRISTINE	CBS	4,653	3,670	1.27
Amazing Race 12	CBS	4,642	3,670	1.26
Private Practice	ABC	4,651	3,710	1.25
E.R.	NBC	4,368	3,500	1.25
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3	NBC	4,329	3,500	1.24
BACHELOR, THE	ABC	4,544	3,710	1.22
Biggest Loser 4	NBC	4,280	3,500	1.22
MEDIUM	NBC	4,098	3,500	1.17
WITHOUT A TRACE	CBS	4,270	3,670	1.16
Chuck	NBC	4,061	3,500	1.16
HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS	ABC	4,236	3,710	1.14
GAME, THE	CW	1,422	1,270	1.12
SCRUBS	NBC	3,899	3,500	1.11
Law And Order	NBC	3,896	3,500	1.11
Big Bang Theory, THE	CBS	4,050	3,670	1.10
CSI: NY	CBS	4,019	3,670	1.10
Criminal Minds	CBS	4,009	3,670	1.09
How I Met Your Mother	CBS	4,006	3,670	1.09
OT, THE	FOX	5,727	5,290	1.08
MY NAME IS EARL	NBC	3,723	3,500	1.06
REAPER	CW	1,342	1,270	1.06
Gossip Girl	CW	1,338	1,270	1.05
PUSHING DAISIES	ABC	3,892	3,710	1.05
SUPERNATURAL	CW	1,323	1,270	1.04
30 Rock	NBC	3,634	3,500	1.04
BIG SHOTS	ABC	3,807	3,710	1.03	cancelled
LIFE	NBC	3,496	3,500	1.00
UNIT, THE	CBS	3,662	3,670	1.00
NCIS	CBS	3,655	3,670	1.00
DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED	NBC	3,443	3,500	0.98
TERMINATOR: SRH CNR CHRON	FOX	5,189	5,290	0.98
UGLY BETTY	ABC	3,639	3,710	0.98
Family Guy	FOX	5,135	5,290	0.97
Supernanny	ABC	3,487	3,710	0.94
EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS	CW	1,192	1,270	0.94
BACHELOR: LONDON CALLING	ABC	3,466	3,710	0.93
LIPSTICK JUNGLE	NBC	3,269	3,500	0.93
60 Minutes	CBS	3,416	3,670	0.93
GIRLFRIENDS	CW	1,178	1,270	0.93
COLD CASE	CBS	3,396	3,670	0.93
DANCE WAR:BRUNO/CARRIEANN	ABC	3,426	3,710	0.92
DIRTY SEXY MONEY	ABC	3,420	3,710	0.92
Simpsons	FOX	4,872	5,290	0.92
JOURNEYMAN	NBC	3,204	3,500	0.92	cancelled
PUSSYCAT DOLLS:GIRLICIOUS	CW	1,098	1,270	0.86	cancelled
ELI STONE	ABC	3,190	3,710	0.86
PHENOMENON	NBC	2,982	3,500	0.85	cancelled
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS	ABC	3,155	3,710	0.85
CAVEMEN	ABC	3,097	3,710	0.83	cancelled
BIG BROTHER 9-SUN	CBS	3,060	3,670	0.83
BOSTON LEGAL	ABC	3,058	3,710	0.82
BIG BROTHER 9-TUE	CBS	3,021	3,670	0.82
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI	NBC	2,851	3,500	0.81	cancelled
KID NATION	CBS	2,944	3,670	0.80	cancelled
SHARK	CBS	2,939	3,670	0.80	cancelled
LAS VEGAS	NBC	2,796	3,500	0.80	cancelled
GHOST WHISPERER	CBS	2,907	3,670	0.79
WIFE SWAP	ABC	2,924	3,710	0.79
BEAUTY AND THE GEEK-3	CW	993	1,270	0.78	cancelled
PRISON BREAK	FOX	4,117	5,290	0.78
CROWNED	CW	984	1,270	0.77	cancelled
American Dad	FOX	4,085	5,290	0.77
KING OF THE HILL	FOX	4,084	5,290	0.77
WELCOME TO THE CAPTAIN	CBS	2,822	3,670	0.77	cancelled
NUMB3RS	CBS	2,789	3,670	0.76
1 VS 100	NBC	2,653	3,500	0.76	cancelled
BIG BROTHER 9-WED	CBS	2,774	3,670	0.76
CANE	CBS	2,752	3,670	0.75	cancelled
MY DAD IS BETR THN YR DAD	NBC	2,622	3,500	0.75	cancelled
Dateline FRI	NBC	2,615	3,500	0.75
PRICE IS RIGHT PRIMETIME	CBS	2,730	3,670	0.74
ALIENS IN AMERICA	CW	927	1,270	0.73	cancelled
JERICHO	CBS	2,666	3,670	0.73	cancelled
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL	ABC	2,689	3,710	0.72
Law And Order:CRIM INTENT	NBC	2,530	3,500	0.72
Bones	FOX	3,822	5,290	0.72
CASHMERE MAFIA	ABC	2,667	3,710	0.72	cancelled
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2	NBC	2,487	3,500	0.71
MOONLIGHT	CBS	2,602	3,670	0.71	cancelled
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS	FOX	3,694	5,290	0.70
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS	NBC	2,442	3,500	0.70
DEXTER	CBS	2,479	3,670	0.68
Kitchen Nightmares	FOX	3,571	5,290	0.68
20/20-FRI	ABC	2,469	3,710	0.67
OCTOBER ROAD	ABC	2,455	3,710	0.66	cancelled
NOTES FROM THE UNDERBELLY	ABC	2,434	3,710	0.66	cancelled
CARPOOLERS	ABC	2,408	3,710	0.65	cancelled
WOMEN'S MURDER CLUB	ABC	2,365	3,710	0.64	cancelled
NEW AMSTERDAM	FOX	3,332	5,290	0.63	cancelled
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER	FOX	3,305	5,290	0.62
48 Hours Mystery	CBS	2,149	3,670	0.59
COPS 2	FOX	2,918	5,290	0.55
UNHITCHED	FOX	2,873	5,290	0.54	cancelled
BACK TO YOU	FOX	2,872	5,290	0.54	cancelled
TIL DEATH	FOX	2,845	5,290	0.54
AMNESIA	NBC	1,861	3,500	0.53	cancelled
MEN IN TREES	ABC	1,968	3,710	0.53	cancelled
ABC SAT MOVIE OF THE WEEK	ABC	1,944	3,710	0.52
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK	FOX	2,756	5,290	0.52
CRIMETIME SATURDAY	CBS	1,830	3,670	0.50
COPS	FOX	2,509	5,290	0.47
JUST FOR LAUGHS	ABC	1,757	3,710	0.47	cancelled
CBS MOVIE SATURDAY	CBS	1,709	3,670	0.47
K-VILLE	FOX	2,444	5,290	0.46	cancelled
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME	ABC	1,666	3,710	0.45
LIFE IS WILD	CW	460	1,270	0.36	cancelled
DUEL	ABC	1,319	3,710	0.36	cancelled
CANTERBURY'S LAW	FOX	1,764	5,290	0.33	cancelled
CW NOW	CW	366	1,270	0.29	cancelled
NEXT GREAT AMERICAN BAND	FOX	1,509	5,290	0.29	cancelled

(34) Comments - Add Yours!

If you'd like to personalize your comments left on TVbytheNumbers with your picture or other avatar, please visit www.gravatar.com. Just use the same e-mail address here that you used when registering your gravatar.com account and the picture you selected will show up next to your comments.

Ann Marie

Posted May 18, 2008 at 8:21 PM

Looks like you’ve got a new Mendosa line of 1.0, at least for dramas.
Ann Marie

Posted May 18, 2008 at 8:21 PM

Looks like you’ve got a new Mendosa line of 1.0, at least for dramas.
Stephanie

Posted May 18, 2008 at 9:56 PM

Wow, Bill. Very interesting.

One thing I noticed though is that FOX has a lot of renewed shows below the 93% safe line. It seems the American Idol ratings are so high that it’s skewing the FOX average high, so many if its “normal” rated shows are falling below the cut-off threshold. I bet if the American Idol rating results were eliminated from the average, fewer renewed FOX shows would appear below 93%.

Next fall, will you be using this season’s network averages (the ones listed in this chart) to predict cancellations? Or will you recalculate new network average results next fall?
Stephanie

Posted May 18, 2008 at 9:56 PM

Wow, Bill. Very interesting.

One thing I noticed though is that FOX has a lot of renewed shows below the 93% safe line. It seems the American Idol ratings are so high that it’s skewing the FOX average high, so many if its “normal” rated shows are falling below the cut-off threshold. I bet if the American Idol rating results were eliminated from the average, fewer renewed FOX shows would appear below 93%.

Next fall, will you be using this season’s network averages (the ones listed in this chart) to predict cancellations? Or will you recalculate new network average results next fall?
Anonymous

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:10 PM

I don’t know how you came up with this algorithm. Your methods are ‘sound’ and reflect your obvious knowledge of the business. For the previous reason, I keep onreading ‘TvByTheNumbers’. Even though I agree with the why’s of the cancellation of ‘Moonlight’, I still liked the show. Maybe I’m not as in tune as I like to think I am. Probably true, but I ‘hate’ to admit it.
Anonymous

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:10 PM

I don’t know how you came up with this algorithm. Your methods are ‘sound’ and reflect your obvious knowledge of the business. For the previous reason, I keep onreading ‘TvByTheNumbers’. Even though I agree with the why’s of the cancellation of ‘Moonlight’, I still liked the show. Maybe I’m not as in tune as I like to think I am. Probably true, but I ‘hate’ to admit it.
Andrea

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:10 PM

Stephanie,

You’re so right. No wonder everything on FOX gets canned every season–how can you compare with American Idol? The only safe shows on that network are House and the reality programs. I was surprised that both Bones and Prison Break are also ranked so low. I thought FOX was all about the young demo?

The index doesn’t seem to count for Friday and Saturday shows. Life being kicked to Fridays is a mistake.

I will be very interested to see how things begin in Sept!
Andrea

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:10 PM

Stephanie,

You’re so right. No wonder everything on FOX gets canned every season–how can you compare with American Idol? The only safe shows on that network are House and the reality programs. I was surprised that both Bones and Prison Break are also ranked so low. I thought FOX was all about the young demo?

The index doesn’t seem to count for Friday and Saturday shows. Life being kicked to Fridays is a mistake.

I will be very interested to see how things begin in Sept!
LSW

Posted May 18, 2008 at 6:15 PM

Not to make your calculations more complicated, but it also seems like the networks have different expectations for different nights of the week. Anyway you can add that to your calculations? It does seem to be pertinent.
Robert Seidman

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:29 PM

This index is a very general guideline that will work as is in most cases, but in some, it doesn’t really work without more data (which the Nets have). For example, the S-T-D averages don’t filter OUT things like “appeared after American idol” or “had great first 3 weeks of 18-49 rating” (which was where Bionic Woman had most of her strength):

First three episodes.

5.7m
5.4m
5.1m

Last 3 episodes

3.58m
3.22m
2.85m

The trend was not Jaime Sommers friend, and especially in the case of a series with a short run, that information doesn’t really jump out in this index, but I’m sure it jumped out to the execs at NBC.
Robert Seidman

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:29 PM

This index is a very general guideline that will work as is in most cases, but in some, it doesn’t really work without more data (which the Nets have). For example, the S-T-D averages don’t filter OUT things like “appeared after American idol” or “had great first 3 weeks of 18-49 rating” (which was where Bionic Woman had most of her strength):

First three episodes.

5.7m
5.4m
5.1m

Last 3 episodes

3.58m
3.22m
2.85m

The trend was not Jaime Sommers friend, and especially in the case of a series with a short run, that information doesn’t really jump out in this index, but I’m sure it jumped out to the execs at NBC.
Bill Gorman

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:55 PM

We’ll use the network averages for next year for the calculations for next years shows.

Also, since we’ll be doing this from the start of the season, we’ll be able to take into account a few things that Robert refers to in his comment like trends and advantageous lead-ins, something that would be way too time consuming to do in retrospect for this season at this point.
Bill Gorman

Posted May 18, 2008 at 11:55 PM

We’ll use the network averages for next year for the calculations for next years shows.

Also, since we’ll be doing this from the start of the season, we’ll be able to take into account a few things that Robert refers to in his comment like trends and advantageous lead-ins, something that would be way too time consuming to do in retrospect for this season at this point.
Julia

Posted May 19, 2008 at 4:26 AM

Is Miss/Guided missing or am I just missing it? I know all its episodes were considered “special” so maybe it didn’t make the list? I was just curious where it fell.
Julia

Posted May 19, 2008 at 4:26 AM

Is Miss/Guided missing or am I just missing it? I know all its episodes were considered “special” so maybe it didn’t make the list? I was just curious where it fell.
Bill Gorman

Posted May 19, 2008 at 4:38 AM

Julia, you are correct, because Miss Guided episodes were all designated “special” Nielsen doesn’t provide us with any season to date numbers for it.

And since I used only STD numbers for the calculations above, it was left out.
Bill Gorman

Posted May 19, 2008 at 4:38 AM

Julia, you are correct, because Miss Guided episodes were all designated “special” Nielsen doesn’t provide us with any season to date numbers for it.

And since I used only STD numbers for the calculations above, it was left out.
tooltip86

Posted May 19, 2008 at 1:18 PM

hey, sorry for bad english, i think you should change your equation, adding some value wether is friday or saturday night, for example numb3rs is ranked very low on the list, and it’s not fare that cancellation index in this situation.
tooltip86

Posted May 19, 2008 at 1:18 PM

hey, sorry for bad english, i think you should change your equation, adding some value wether is friday or saturday night, for example numb3rs is ranked very low on the list, and it’s not fare that cancellation index in this situation.
Bill Gorman

Posted May 19, 2008 at 1:59 PM

tooltip, I agree. When we do this next fall, we’ll try and adjust for other factors as possible.

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TVbytheNumbers Cancellation Index

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