Comments on: TVbytheNumbers Cancellation Index

By: Hollywood’s Web Shows: The Future of Television? « Asmedia

Hollywood’s Web Shows: The Future of Television? « Asmedia — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 18:09:34 +0000

[...] Hollywood’s Web Shows: The Future of Television? I have argued before that the television industry would benefit from transforming its business model to enhance consumer engagement and adapt to new technologies. That is not to say that broadcast TV is in danger of disappearing (in fact a May 2008 Nielsen Report pdf found Americans are watching more traditional TV than ever) but DVRs, digital cable, and online video all make it increasingly difficult for networks to secure consistent viewers and advertisers. As a result, pilots, even beloved shows, either produce immediate results or face extinction. The system has become so reliant on statistics that a show whose viewership falls below 93% of its networks’ average viewers will be flat out NEXTed. (source: tvbythenumbers.com) [...]

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 18:42:33 +0000

Wow. Killed 3 of the 6 shows I watch on TV. Guess i'll be falling back into the “I won't watch untill season 4″ mode I used to be in. Moonlight, Journeyman, Bionic Woman.. all fairly well acted and compelling sci-fi based dramas. Thank god you'll never drop Battlestar Galatica.

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:42:33 +0000

By: cindy

cindy — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 20:27:02 +0000

So many of these shows never had a chance to take hold. they were doomed before they started

By: Video Insider: Viewing Habits « Communications & Legal Studies

Video Insider: Viewing Habits « Communications & Legal Studies — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 15:44:06 +0000

[...] serious trust issues. Moonlight and Jericho have a fan base, but the execs look at the numbers; TV by the Numbers posts the cancellation index and describes the [...]

By: Lucy

Lucy — Sun, 25 May 2008 20:06:32 +0000

What keep Lipstick Jungle and cancel Cashmere Mafia and Men In Trees? Lipstick Jungle only did well because it aired new episodes during the strike while everything else was reruns. They kept moving Men In Trees, how could anyone w/o DVR keep up?

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 20 May 2008 15:39:00 +0000

gnolte, No cost or revenue data is public information for obvious reasons, but adults 18-49 viewership likely correlates pretty well with revenue potential so that’s why we use it. On the cost side, we could only make reasonable [and likely quite variable] guesses.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Tue, 20 May 2008 15:39:00 +0000

By: gnolte

gnolte — Tue, 20 May 2008 12:55:57 +0000

Very interesting – What would happen if you included, or at a minimum, showed a comparison of the cost vs. revenue for the shows?

By: Julia

Julia — Mon, 19 May 2008 18:16:00 +0000

You know, it’s interesting to see The Simpsons is below 1.0. I know Fox is skewed due to American Idol, but it wasn’t that long ago that The Simpsons was one of their big demo winners.

By: Julia

Julia — Mon, 19 May 2008 18:16:00 +0000

You know, it’s interesting to see The Simpsons is below 1.0. I know Fox is skewed due to American Idol, but it wasn’t that long ago that The Simpsons was one of their big demo winners.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 19 May 2008 16:22:09 +0000

richard, thanks for the info, will edit.

By: richard

richard — Mon, 19 May 2008 15:43:28 +0000

HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS have not been cancelled yet.
It is a show for mid-season consideration.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:59:00 +0000

tooltip, I agree. When we do this next fall, we’ll try and adjust for other factors as possible.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:59:00 +0000

tooltip, I agree. When we do this next fall, we’ll try and adjust for other factors as possible.

By: tooltip86

tooltip86 — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:18:00 +0000

hey, sorry for bad english, i think you should change your equation, adding some value wether is friday or saturday night, for example numb3rs is ranked very low on the list, and it’s not fare that cancellation index in this situation.

By: tooltip86

tooltip86 — Mon, 19 May 2008 13:18:00 +0000

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 19 May 2008 04:38:00 +0000

Julia, you are correct, because Miss Guided episodes were all designated “special” Nielsen doesn’t provide us with any season to date numbers for it.

And since I used only STD numbers for the calculations above, it was left out.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Mon, 19 May 2008 04:38:00 +0000

Julia, you are correct, because Miss Guided episodes were all designated “special” Nielsen doesn’t provide us with any season to date numbers for it.

And since I used only STD numbers for the calculations above, it was left out.

By: Julia

Julia — Mon, 19 May 2008 04:26:00 +0000

Is Miss/Guided missing or am I just missing it? I know all its episodes were considered “special” so maybe it didn’t make the list? I was just curious where it fell.

By: Julia

Julia — Mon, 19 May 2008 04:26:00 +0000

Is Miss/Guided missing or am I just missing it? I know all its episodes were considered “special” so maybe it didn’t make the list? I was just curious where it fell.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:55:00 +0000

We’ll use the network averages for next year for the calculations for next years shows.

Also, since we’ll be doing this from the start of the season, we’ll be able to take into account a few things that Robert refers to in his comment like trends and advantageous lead-ins, something that would be way too time consuming to do in retrospect for this season at this point.

By: Bill Gorman

Bill Gorman — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:55:00 +0000

We’ll use the network averages for next year for the calculations for next years shows.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:29:00 +0000

This index is a very general guideline that will work as is in most cases, but in some, it doesn’t really work without more data (which the Nets have). For example, the S-T-D averages don’t filter OUT things like “appeared after American idol” or “had great first 3 weeks of 18-49 rating” (which was where Bionic Woman had most of her strength):

First three episodes.

5.7m
5.4m
5.1m

Last 3 episodes

3.58m
3.22m
2.85m

The trend was not Jaime Sommers friend, and especially in the case of a series with a short run, that information doesn’t really jump out in this index, but I’m sure it jumped out to the execs at NBC.

By: Robert Seidman

Robert Seidman — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:29:00 +0000

First three episodes.

5.7m
5.4m
5.1m

Last 3 episodes

3.58m
3.22m
2.85m

By: LSW

LSW — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:15:48 +0000

Not to make your calculations more complicated, but it also seems like the networks have different expectations for different nights of the week. Anyway you can add that to your calculations? It does seem to be pertinent.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:10:00 +0000

I don’t know how you came up with this algorithm. Your methods are ‘sound’ and reflect your obvious knowledge of the business. For the previous reason, I keep onreading ‘TvByTheNumbers’. Even though I agree with the why’s of the cancellation of ‘Moonlight’, I still liked the show. Maybe I’m not as in tune as I like to think I am. Probably true, but I ‘hate’ to admit it.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:10:00 +0000

By: Andrea

Andrea — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:10:00 +0000

Stephanie,

You’re so right. No wonder everything on FOX gets canned every season–how can you compare with American Idol? The only safe shows on that network are House and the reality programs. I was surprised that both Bones and Prison Break are also ranked so low. I thought FOX was all about the young demo?

The index doesn’t seem to count for Friday and Saturday shows. Life being kicked to Fridays is a mistake.

I will be very interested to see how things begin in Sept!

By: Andrea

Andrea — Sun, 18 May 2008 23:10:00 +0000

Stephanie,

The index doesn’t seem to count for Friday and Saturday shows. Life being kicked to Fridays is a mistake.

I will be very interested to see how things begin in Sept!

By: Stephanie

Stephanie — Sun, 18 May 2008 21:56:00 +0000

Wow, Bill. Very interesting.

One thing I noticed though is that FOX has a lot of renewed shows below the 93% safe line. It seems the American Idol ratings are so high that it’s skewing the FOX average high, so many if its “normal” rated shows are falling below the cut-off threshold. I bet if the American Idol rating results were eliminated from the average, fewer renewed FOX shows would appear below 93%.

Next fall, will you be using this season’s network averages (the ones listed in this chart) to predict cancellations? Or will you recalculate new network average results next fall?

By: Stephanie

Stephanie — Sun, 18 May 2008 21:56:00 +0000

Wow, Bill. Very interesting.

Next fall, will you be using this season’s network averages (the ones listed in this chart) to predict cancellations? Or will you recalculate new network average results next fall?

By: Ann Marie

Ann Marie — Sun, 18 May 2008 20:21:00 +0000

Looks like you’ve got a new Mendosa line of 1.0, at least for dramas.

By: Ann Marie

Ann Marie — Sun, 18 May 2008 20:21:00 +0000

Looks like you’ve got a new Mendosa line of 1.0, at least for dramas.