I was in the process of writing Bill Gorman an e-mail about this and figured, eh, if it's interesting enough for Bill to think about, I might as well just do a post.
FOX is going with the strategy for new dramas Fringe and Dollhouse of having half as many commercials in both shows' episodes. FOX has dubbed this Remote Free TV. Media Week is reporting that FOX is getting 35%-40% premiums for this ad inventory versus advertising for regular programming (which Media week says is up 8%-10% versus last year and similar to the increases ABC is commanding).
If you make a 35%-40% premium on half the advertisements, all other things being equal it still leaves a revenue shortfall of 10%-15%. The question becomes will they draw in 10%-15% or more viewers as a result of the initiative. It's an interesting strategy and I kind of like it, especially for the shows they're doing it with Fringe and Dollhouse.
Unfortunately as these shows are new we have no past ratings to compare it to. Both shows are in the realm of science fiction/fantasy - the type of shows that usually aren't hits on the broadcast networks. But we do have a basis of comparison for FOX itself with Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles.
Throwing out the first couple of episodes because of special promotion, lead-in, etc, TSCC averaged 9.33m. I'm guessing the only thing that really matters is 18-49 year old viewers and throwing out the first two episodes I only had data for 6 out of the 7 remaining shows where it averaged 4.37. An additional 15% in the 18-49 demo would take it to right around 5 million 18-49 viewers.
I actually think that's very doable in normal circumstances (assuming the show is any good). In its season finale, LOST, which is on the wane viewers-wise (although it had a strong year story-wise) for all the normal reasons that plague serial shows, plus somewhat wacky scheduling, had 6.453 million 18-49 viewers. So, when FOX thinks about break even with the Remote Free promotion, if a show like TSCC is the benchmark the 5 million, attempting to get to 5 million seems very doable.
Then again, FOX may have higher expectations for both the shows and the promo and expect them to perform as well as LOST or Heroes, which typically averaged over 6.5 million 18-49 year old viewers. Heroes may be the benchmark rather than TSCC, and I think it probably should be.
In that case, I like the strategy a bit more in the sense that FOX may have very little hope of achieving those kind of numbers without the special Remote Free promotion especially as it will be airing at exactly the same time as Heroes! a completely different time than Heroes. (It will air on Tuesdays at 9pm after House)DVRs will be working overtime.
Since FOX was already taking somewhat of a risk just because the type of shows Dollhouse and Fringe are and that they aren't usually hits for the broadcast network, and since they have seen fit to compete head-to-head with Heroes, I am leaning towards liking the strategy more. I have a summer to think about it before Fringe premieres in the fall Mondays Tuesdays at 9pm. Dollhouse is currently scheduled to premiere mid-season.
What do you think about the Remote Free strategy? Is it a smart strategy? Will it work?
P.S. I'll wind up watching on the DVR anyway (and both shows I believe will quickly have million+ DVR viewer followings). It will certainly not be "remote free TV" in my house. 
P.P.S I had the timeslot screwed up and I can't believe nobody jumped all over me about it. Fringe/Dollhouse fans are a kind bunch. I've corrected it.
Well, I’m not sure it’s worth speculating whether Fringe of Dollhouse will reach LOST’s numbers (better to wait and see if they’re as good as they should be first), but I think both will outperform TSCC out of the gate thanks to, umm, the nomadic tribes of JJ Abrams and Joss Whedon who will not only show up in droves for the premiers, but will stick around for as long as it takes for the shows to get good. This preexisting fan base is a factor Fox has clearly taken into account in their calculations as evidenced by their creation of the FUTURE ON FOX* blog which is not only heavy with ‘Fringe’ and ‘Dollhouse’ tags, but even has exclusive blogrolls for both shows.
*http://www.fox.com/futurefox/blogs/
Thanks for the link Edward, it’s interesting to see that there are several blogs/social networks pages, etc well ahead (especially in the case of DollHouse) of the shows airing. Also interesting to see they linked to the site which proposed a “Save Dollhouse” campaign (dollhouseforums.com) before the show has even aired…
You’re welcome. It is an interesting question. My sense is that Fox has turned over a new leaf and both shows will have a full season to prove themselves. I’m betting on Fringe by the way.
Thanks for the article – I think both fringe and dollhouse will out-perform Heroes. But it is an interesting strategy FOX are taking.
http://fringe-forum.com
http://wathcingdollhouse.com
This sounds like a great idea (viewers have to endure fewer ads, advertisers don’t have to worry as much about viewers fast forwarding as much), but I’m not so sure it will work, especially with high-cost shows like these are likely to be.
I like the idea in general. I think the real important thing is that Fringe will be starting with House as a lead in. Although I don’t generally believe in those, Fringe will get good advertising when House premieres so I feel as though more people will stay tuned in just to see what it’s like in its premiere. The less commercials, the more likely people will watch for a longer amount of time and get pulled into the show.
I also think it has good competition, going against a DWTS results show which is bogged with commercials, people may (who really knows) change the channel during breaks, and odds are, there won’t be a commercial during Fringe.
The strategy sounds like a winner and so do the shows considering the names behind them (Abrams & Whedon). The only thing that makes me nervous about devoting time to these new shows and getting hooked, is the fact that FOX tends to be quick with the cancellation button. With “Fringe” associated with Abrams, I suspect it will be mystery upon mystery and question upon question with little satisfactory resolution by season’s end — provided it’s even given a full season. Nothing more annoying than devoting time to a show that gets cancelled midstream with a whole bunch of open questions. At least Whedon knows how to balance questions & answers and offer viewers some payoff and satisfaction for their dedication. Unless FOX can guarantee a full season, and unless both Abrams & Whedon can promise to tie up loose ends by the end of the season in case of cancellation… I don’t think I want to take the chance on these and be left hanging as we were with Firefly.
Oh, speaking of The Sarah Connor Chronicles, look at these lovely new photos of Summer and Lena. Photos!!!
Awesome! But here's my question: What commitment does Fox have to trying to make a go of TSCC in the second season? I've seen almost no promotion for the show, and while they've given it a good time slot, I hope TSCC doesn't get lost in the Fringe shuffle.
(As a side note, I really like the concept of Fringe, but do not so much like the concept of Dollhouse. It will be interesting to see whether both shows take off…)
I don't understand why FOX put TSCC on Monday in the 8 PM slot and Prison Break in the 9 PM slot?! WTF? Why not the other way around? It was working this season.
Don't for a minute think FOX is losing money on this “remote-free” stunt. Some or all of the “deleted” spots that would normally air in these shows will be sprinkled throughout the rest of FOX's primetime lineup.
They don't want TSCC to be on against Heroes. They figure that a similar audience is interested in each show, so why have them go head to head? I personally preferred to see TSCC on at 9, but I don't want to see it get canned either. So, hopefully, this works out.
It is an intresting move for FOX – one that could help serperate the shows from other newcomers (though these 2 shows are in fact so different from anything else on atm)
I just became hooked on these two shows – I've read so much about then and seem intrested to an extenet, by after watching the preview trailer's for both shows, iv just got to go WOW
Fringe is more likely the show to fly – it's slightly more mainstream than Dollhouse and has, in my view, more avenues of choice in terms of storylines….Dollhouse looks fantastic though, and im looking forward to both shows when the screen down here in Australia!
It is an intresting move for FOX – one that could help serperate the shows from other newcomers (though these 2 shows are in fact so different from anything else on atm)
I just became hooked on these two shows – I've read so much about then and seem intrested to an extenet, by after watching the preview trailer's for both shows, iv just got to go WOW
Fringe is more likely the show to fly – it's slightly more mainstream than Dollhouse and has, in my view, more avenues of choice in terms of storylines….Dollhouse looks fantastic though, and im looking forward to both shows when the screen down here in Australia!
Very interesting, I dont really mind though as long as they keep producing quality shows like Fringe and Terminator I will keep loving them. Take a look for yourself http://www.watchingfringe.com/ http://www.watchsarahconnorchronicles.com/