However, I assumed that networks *always* place the number of ad minutes that they believe will maximize their revenue, so any variability in ad availability comes from changes in eyeballs.

The example of Fox reducing the ad minutes during those new shows is consistent with this. They still expect to maximize revenue by doing that, with a combination of higher CPMs and, they hope, higher ratings.

If we can agree on a credible source for revenue data, I'd offer you a friendly wager that total revenue for the four major broadcasters will be up over two years ago

Not true. Networks can and routinely do control their supply, usually by adding more commercials. Sometimes this can have a greater impact than rising or falling ratings.

Fox is famously controlling its supply in the coming season in the opposite direction by reducing commercial load in two new programs, which drove up the cost of these shows. What Fox hasn't told us is if the deleted spots from those shows will be filtered in throughout the rest of their primetime lineup.

However, I assumed that networks *always* place the number of ad minutes that they believe will maximize their revenue, so any variability in ad availability comes from changes in eyeballs.

The example of Fox reducing the ad minutes during those new shows is consistent with this. They still expect to maximize revenue by doing that, with a combination of higher CPMs and, they hope, higher ratings.

I think it’s reasonable to guess that revenue in 2008-9 is slightly up vs. 2007-8 because price increases will outdo any ratings decline [or strike recovery increase], but 2008-9 revenue will unlikely be up vs. 2006-7 because even with a 2 year price increase of 10-18% viewership losses in those two years will have been even greater.

I think it’s reasonable to guess that revenue in 2008-9 is slightly up vs. 2007-8 because price increases will outdo any ratings decline [or strike recovery increase], but 2008-9 revenue will unlikely be up vs. 2006-7 because even with a 2 year price increase of 10-18% viewership losses in those two years will have been even greater.

I’m guessing this spring was the last “normal” upfront for the nets and that next year will be harder. We’ll see. If the actors strike *that* would be really gloomy, and then of course, all bets would be off.

I’m guessing this spring was the last “normal” upfront for the nets and that next year will be harder. We’ll see. If the actors strike *that* would be really gloomy, and then of course, all bets would be off.

Given the widespread predictions of weakness in this year’s upfront, isn’t it fair to say that the market came up strong for broadcasters?

The likelihood is that revenue will be up this year at every broadcast network, and perhaps up quite substantially. The scenario you outline in which ratings don’t bounce back from the strike season seems awfully bleak to me.