SOMEDAY I may better understand the mechanics of the millennial mind. Until then I will wonder how shows like "Ghost Whisperer" keep going and a series like "Swingtown" fails to catch on. A period piece on CBS, "Swingtown" nears the end of its summer run with a dwindling audience despite all the elements that seemed to point to its potential for popularity. - Gina Belafonte in the New York Times' piece, Swingtown and the Heyday of Average.
I was excited to read the rest of the piece because I thought it was going to be a commentary on the state of broadcast network television programming and how shows are positioned and promoted for success. But it wasn't. It was just gushing praise for the doomed CBS generational show, Swingtown.
I don't think the mechanics of the millennial mind are why Ghost Whisperer is on the air and series like Swingtown don't catch on, but rather the mechanics of the business. You can't push a program to Friday night and blame it on the millennial generation. They are the least likely to be watching TV on Friday. But let's face it, by the time CBS moved it to Fridays, it wasn't hoping the show would catch on. It was merely, as they say in baseball, playing out the string.
CBS may dismiss the notion of needing to target to 18-49 year olds and 18-34 year olds, but it's on CBS' mind regardless of its public comments. The question is whether a show like Swingtown would appeal to anyone under the age of 40 or so. I don't doubt that it would, but I think what's really going on is this: shows have a very limited time to catch on with the 18-49 crowd. The networks aren't willing to wait it out. Genre shows like Moonlight get cancelled not because it didn't have enough viewers, but because it didn't have enough viewers who were 18-49 years old. If Moonlight had done 33% better in that category it would likely be back on in the fall.
It's Not Ageism, It's Supply and Demand
I feel obligated to write this disclaimer now anytime we right about age demographics. A lot of people cry foul at the age demos, but even though I am myself getting pretty aged, I don't have a problem with it. Advertisers don't want large 18-49 populations and 18-34 populations specifically because its where they want to hawk their products though in products specifically aimed at younger people that is certainly the case, as it should be. Advertisers want to reach these age demographics and are willing to pay more for them because they are far more scarce in the television world. Finding a show where you can find a large population of people in a specific age and gender are gold mines (think Grey's Anatomy with women 18-34 and 18-49).
Reaching the 50 and over crowd is relatively easy. They watch a lot of TV, day and night, day in, day out. Availability is not scarce, and the advertisers have so many opportunities to reach that demographic in so many ways it's less valuable to them. Because it's harder to reach the younger demographics, it becomes more valuable to reach.
So What Was CBS Thinking?
I think CBS was believing in Santa Claus really. I understand it. It would be nice if there was a Santa Claus, the notion that such a thing could exist is very pleasing. The notion that because a show is good, and very creative and even interesting and different that just because of that it will succeed? That's like believing in Santa Claus. Not just because of the millennial mind either but because of the nature of the way the business works these days.
A lot of the appeal of shows like Swingtown and Mad Men is just how well they nail the period they cover. I've yet to watch Swingtown, but I will give it a look after the Olympics and after I get caught up on Damages, Generation Kill and Weeds. But I trust the likes of Ms. Belafonte that Swingtown has captured the essence of the 1970s well. But who's that aspect of the show going to appeal the most to? People who were alive in the 1970s! If you were even a young 18 in 1975, you're over 50 now and outside of demos coveted by advertisers.
It doesn't matter what the networks say publicly. Shows need to have at least moderate success among the under 50 crowd or they will fail. The leash isn't typically long either. Shows need to score in the under 50 demos quickly. Swingtown started out OK out of the gate on Thursdays in that regard with modest success (at least for the summer) in the under 50 demographics, but then the show kept bleeding viewers.
A New Hope?
The networks actually do have the luxury of giving at least a show or two a longer leash. It's not like the networks aren't making money hand over fist as it is, or they wouldn't mostly completely throw in the towel with the Friday night and Saturday night lineups. While shows like Moonlight and Jericho had a fairly sizable loyal fan base (both on the Internet and to some degree in terms of viewers) these shows struck out with the youthful demos, and they weren't critically acclaimed.
I'm not going to fault Gina Belafonte for doing her part to save a show that she likes, I have seen several other TV critics who were digging Swingtown. I doubt in the case of Swingtown, it will make any difference whatsoever. We have two data points that suggest clearly CBS has already made up its mind on this show and is ready to move on:
- It switched it to Fridays, giving Flashpoint the better Thursday night slot. Kiss of death.
- It aired a *new* episode of Swingtown up against the Olympic opening ceremonies. While I'm sure not even NBC expected the stellar numbers the opening ceremonies drew, any programming executive at the other networks knew that the ceremonies would be the most-watched thing on television. That doesn't explain why NBC Uni itself ran new episodes of Monk and Psych on USA network on Friday night, but still...
I don't believe we need to wait for the formal announcement from CBS.
I don't think critical praise is new hope for a show like Swingtown. Many viewers lament the "same old crap" that gets put on the air. Yay, another police, crime, lawyer, doctor procedural! I understad. But what works, works, and as long as it works, that's likely just going to be the way it is.
A show like Swingtown needs to catch on, and catch on fast. That's a circumstance that you'll rarely see happen on broadcast network television, especially in the summer without a big budget for promotion.
At the end of the day, the best new hope for new, creative and different content is...cable.
Ok, But in the case of Swingtown, which I also didn’t watch, cable saw it b/4 CBS and passed. Moonlight has been ‘shopped’ around to cable and so far no one is snapping it up. It’s annoying to watch a show on CBS that probably will have an extremely short viewing period. 13 episodes for Swingtown and 16 for Moonlight. Jericho didn’t fare much better. I don’t mean to turn this into a bash on CBS but their track record is horrible when you’re outside of their core programming. In the case of the coveted demo please explain again if there are fewer of them, with less dollars why are they so desirable? You’d think that raw numbers would count as much if not more. Why fight over a small percentage of the viewing audience when you could attract a larger percentage? Why isn’t more better? More numbers should equal more spending power. Or at least 2 over 49 viewers should equal 1 in the demo. It’s really annoying when the two largest advertisers are drug companies, selling to the 50+, and investment groups. Neither sounds like my 23 year old type of products. Ok. I’m done now…off the soap box.
Ok, But in the case of Swingtown, which I also didn’t watch, cable saw it b/4 CBS and passed. Moonlight has been ‘shopped’ around to cable and so far no one is snapping it up. It’s annoying to watch a show on CBS that probably will have an extremely short viewing period. 13 episodes for Swingtown and 16 for Moonlight. Jericho didn’t fare much better. I don’t mean to turn this into a bash on CBS but their track record is horrible when you’re outside of their core programming. In the case of the coveted demo please explain again if there are fewer of them, with less dollars why are they so desirable? You’d think that raw numbers would count as much if not more. Why fight over a small percentage of the viewing audience when you could attract a larger percentage? Why isn’t more better? More numbers should equal more spending power. Or at least 2 over 49 viewers should equal 1 in the demo. It’s really annoying when the two largest advertisers are drug companies, selling to the 50+, and investment groups. Neither sounds like my 23 year old type of products. Ok. I’m done now…off the soap box.
I’m thinking of Mad Men, The Wire, Dexter, Damages, great shows that are on cable that probably wouldn’t have made it on broadcast. I am glad this programming exists and that I get to see it. I’m also glad Lost and House exist on broadcast, but I don’t believe the shows I love on cable would likely have made it on broadcast.
As for the 18-49 year olds, it’s *not* an issue of there being fewer of them with less dollars in general. It’s an issue that there are fewer of them WATCHING TV and so it’s harder for advertisers to reach them. Because it’s harder to reach them, the ability to reach them pays more than those who are easily reached. Reaching wealthy older people is much, much, much easier than reaching say, middle-class 30 year olds. Advertisers want to reach both of course, but one is much easier to reach than the other.
It’s simple supply and demand economic theory and there are far better places on the Internet to read about that than from this site!
I’m thinking of Mad Men, The Wire, Dexter, Damages, great shows that are on cable that probably wouldn’t have made it on broadcast. I am glad this programming exists and that I get to see it. I’m also glad Lost and House exist on broadcast, but I don’t believe the shows I love on cable would likely have made it on broadcast.
As for the 18-49 year olds, it’s *not* an issue of there being fewer of them with less dollars in general. It’s an issue that there are fewer of them WATCHING TV and so it’s harder for advertisers to reach them. Because it’s harder to reach them, the ability to reach them pays more than those who are easily reached. Reaching wealthy older people is much, much, much easier than reaching say, middle-class 30 year olds. Advertisers want to reach both of course, but one is much easier to reach than the other.
It’s simple supply and demand economic theory and there are far better places on the Internet to read about that than from this site!
The problem with Swingtown is that the first episode wasn’t particularly good. It was hard to care about the characters because they were trying so hard to set up the “naughty sex” premise. Actually it probably should have been a two hour episode where the audience could start to feel something for the characters before the “swinging” started. I caught the third episode and it was a lot better but by that time the audience had started to abandon it, by that time I did not care.
I’m still not sure why CBS thought it would be a big demo show.
Robert – the whole demo thinking is crazy, at least to me…..but aside from that, since I am a crazed Moonlight fan could you possibly answer this: what do you think is the reason cable networks have passed on picking up MLlight? There are 8 million fans out there, wouldn’t that be a coup for cable?? I don’t hear them talking about demos?
Robert – the whole demo thinking is crazy, at least to me…..but aside from that, since I am a crazed Moonlight fan could you possibly answer this: what do you think is the reason cable networks have passed on picking up MLlight? There are 8 million fans out there, wouldn’t that be a coup for cable?? I don’t hear them talking about demos?
Cobby, they talk about it, you just don’t hear it. Moonlight wasn’t getting 8 million viewers on CBS near the end. It was under 8 million, averaging 7.1 million for the season.
Here’s what I think: if a show like that moved to a big cable net like USA, it would max out at about 3.5 million and a poor showing in the demo. Production costs are too high in that case. For a more niche network like SciFi, it would average under 2 million viewers and low in the demo. The notion that Moonlight would outperform BSG or Stargate on SciFi is pure folly to me. But either way, production costs are too high, and the actors and producers wouldn’t want to take the pay cuts.
It probably doesn’t matter whether how I think about it is actually correct. What does matter is that the people running the cable networks seem to think itâ??s the case, too.
There will be vampires on cable this year, but it will be on a subscription channel, HBO. It might do very well for the network. I don’t see 7 million in the cards, or even close, but if it does, there may well be a Moonlight revival!
Thanks Robert, I knew my business degree was going to be good for something. I’ve actually had economics classes and I do play around on the web for additional info. My point remains, if the largest audience is over 49 and the biggest advertising budgets are for services or goods in that range why place so much emphasis on the younger crowd, regardless of scarcity. IMO not all shows should be gauged in that demo. A number of other sites agree that the way the numbers are calculated is flawed and the age range goofy. My other point is about CBS. Ms. Tassler has indicated that she is returning to sitcoms and procedurals. While I find them boring they do seem to work for CBS. Still I think it’s one reason why cable is picking up viewers and the nets, at least this net, losing some.
Thanks Robert, I knew my business degree was going to be good for something. I’ve actually had economics classes and I do play around on the web for additional info. My point remains, if the largest audience is over 49 and the biggest advertising budgets are for services or goods in that range why place so much emphasis on the younger crowd, regardless of scarcity. IMO not all shows should be gauged in that demo. A number of other sites agree that the way the numbers are calculated is flawed and the age range goofy. My other point is about CBS. Ms. Tassler has indicated that she is returning to sitcoms and procedurals. While I find them boring they do seem to work for CBS. Still I think it’s one reason why cable is picking up viewers and the nets, at least this net, losing some.
Em, factoring out the emotion and whether Nielsen itself is flawed out of the mix (because whether it is or isn’t is not relevant so long as it is how the networks make decisions) your question to me amounts to this: why are advertisers willing to pay more for people they have trouble reaching than people they can reach easily?
I am comfortable with how to answer this question and my answer remains the same.
Em, factoring out the emotion and whether Nielsen itself is flawed out of the mix (because whether it is or isn’t is not relevant so long as it is how the networks make decisions) your question to me amounts to this: why are advertisers willing to pay more for people they have trouble reaching than people they can reach easily?
I am comfortable with how to answer this question and my answer remains the same.
I love Swingtown and I’m 16. I loved Moonlight too and still are very angry at CBS for cancelling it. They should have at least given it another season. Anyway, back to Swingtown, networks shouldn’t expect big ratings in the summer unless it is something big like the Olympics. Swingtown and Moonlight are different shows then the regular crap on TV. CBS should recongize that people like different.Why do you think the SciFi channel has done so good with shows like Battlestar. I hope CBS gives Swingtown a longer leash.
You know, I think it’s funny how CBS definitely tries to catch on with the 18-49 crowd every year, and with each attempt, more and more viewers in the 25-54 crowd appear. I seriously don’t think CBS should stop doing what it’s doing. The young crowd is too much of a fad thing, IMHO. I mean, I’m young, and I lose my ability to like certain shows and I jump on different bandwagons every so often. Not to stereotype older crowds, but they’re prone to stick with a show for six, seven, or even ten years before they move onto something else. I don’t think CBS gives a damn, really, about the younger demographic any longer.
To provide an example, I take the serial “Jericho”. I watched Jericho avidly and many of my friends did as well (I just never watched it when it came on), but it never particularly caught on with the 18-49 audience like other serials (i.e. Lost, Heroes) did. Instead, it captivated an older 25-54 audience and for some reason, most of the people watching it at the end of season one was a strictly older audience.
As for Swingtown, I actually watched with peculiarity because the show received a lot of buzz. I thought it was a particularly alright show and that many people–mostly older audiences who don’t like excessive raunchiness (i.e. Tell Me That You Love Me) but do enjoy a little bit of it. I don’t think it was ever going to catch on to a much younger audience.
I have to agree with you though, that cable is where it’s at. Perhaps the Emmy nominations are a clear sign that the tables are turning, and not just with Mad Men (which, BTW, I don’t watch and can’t relate to). I watch Damages, The Closer, Monk, In Plain Sight, Burn Notice, L&O:CI, My Boys, most of what’s on MTV and VH1, et cetera. I find more to like on cable television and less to like on the broadcast nets. I find a lot of drama and more sophisticated programming on cable than on broadcast.
It’s just the way the cookie crumbles, and I think this is not going to be a recurring trend in five or six years. It WILL be the trend. First, cable nets made the transition from syndicated to original programming. Next, they’ll be making the transition to an entire lineup of original programming, like the Big Three.
You know, I think it’s funny how CBS definitely tries to catch on with the 18-49 crowd every year, and with each attempt, more and more viewers in the 25-54 crowd appear. I seriously don’t think CBS should stop doing what it’s doing. The young crowd is too much of a fad thing, IMHO. I mean, I’m young, and I lose my ability to like certain shows and I jump on different bandwagons every so often. Not to stereotype older crowds, but they’re prone to stick with a show for six, seven, or even ten years before they move onto something else. I don’t think CBS gives a damn, really, about the younger demographic any longer.
To provide an example, I take the serial “Jericho”. I watched Jericho avidly and many of my friends did as well (I just never watched it when it came on), but it never particularly caught on with the 18-49 audience like other serials (i.e. Lost, Heroes) did. Instead, it captivated an older 25-54 audience and for some reason, most of the people watching it at the end of season one was a strictly older audience.
As for Swingtown, I actually watched with peculiarity because the show received a lot of buzz. I thought it was a particularly alright show and that many people–mostly older audiences who don’t like excessive raunchiness (i.e. Tell Me That You Love Me) but do enjoy a little bit of it. I don’t think it was ever going to catch on to a much younger audience.
I have to agree with you though, that cable is where it’s at. Perhaps the Emmy nominations are a clear sign that the tables are turning, and not just with Mad Men (which, BTW, I don’t watch and can’t relate to). I watch Damages, The Closer, Monk, In Plain Sight, Burn Notice, L&O:CI, My Boys, most of what’s on MTV and VH1, et cetera. I find more to like on cable television and less to like on the broadcast nets. I find a lot of drama and more sophisticated programming on cable than on broadcast.
It’s just the way the cookie crumbles, and I think this is not going to be a recurring trend in five or six years. It WILL be the trend. First, cable nets made the transition from syndicated to original programming. Next, they’ll be making the transition to an entire lineup of original programming, like the Big Three.
“Tried” to watch swingtown just because it was getting canned and I was curious. Saw nothing there and turned it off after 10 minutes.
I’m in their target demo and it wasn’t a show I’d stay home and watch on a Friday night. In fact even if I was home I still wouldn’t watch it.
“Tried” to watch swingtown just because it was getting canned and I was curious. Saw nothing there and turned it off after 10 minutes.
I’m in their target demo and it wasn’t a show I’d stay home and watch on a Friday night. In fact even if I was home I still wouldn’t watch it.
If Moonlight had been given the same opportunities as Swingtown, it probably would have hit the numbers. It started out in the Death slot of time, was on and off the air, during the writers strike, replaced by a game show. Moonlight was creative and different without promoting cheating on one’s spouse.
If Moonlight had been given the same opportunities as Swingtown, it probably would have hit the numbers. It started out in the Death slot of time, was on and off the air, during the writers strike, replaced by a game show. Moonlight was creative and different without promoting cheating on one’s spouse.
“But I trust the likes of Ms. Belafonte that Swingtown has captured the essence of the 1970s well. But who’s that aspect of the show going to appeal the most to? People who were alive in the 1970s! ” –
Those days weren’t all that great and I don’t have the time or desire to relive them through a TV show. Many of us who outgrew the 70′s (and survived!) also learned from the experience. Now we appreciate creativity and want quality programming! Not that CBS understands that, or gives a damn…