See the latest week's Renew/Cancel Index here, including the latest predictions for which shows will be cancelled.
Last season I tried a variety of methods to predict which new shows were doing well and which were doing poorly. All of them suffered from a scaling problem. A massive hit for the pathetic CW could still be at the bottom of the list for another network. It was hard to analytically predict the likelihood of renewal or cancellation. But at the end of last season I decided to compare a show's 18-49 viewership to its own network's 18-49 average and the results were quite consistent in predicting renewal or cancellation (in this case after the fact).
For this upcoming season, I'll use this method to publish a Renew/Cancel Index that I'll be using to predict the future of shows across the broadcast networks.
To get these tables using last seasons results through early May I simply divided a show's season to date average adults 18-49 viewership by its network's STD adults 18-49 average viewership.* I've separated the scripted and unscripted shows into two lists. As it turns out, the predictive ability of the method for scripted shows is much better than it is for unscripted shows.
Scripted Shows 2007-8 Season
For scripted shows, the line was clear. Maintain an adults 18-49 viewership above of 92% of your network average and you're going to be renewed. Only 2 shows that did that (Bionic Woman, Big Shots) were cancelled.
Fail to exceed 92% of your network's average adults 18-49 average viewership and you're almost certainly cancelled. Only 6 shows below that line survived. Friday Night Lights only because it was saved by DirectTV. Two others (Ghost Whisper & Numb3rs) are also Friday night shows, a very weak 18-49 night. Eli Stone and Boston Legal were on the bubble till the last minute, and it's still a mystery to me why 'Til Death survived, rumor was it was so cheap that Fox decided to keep it around.
Even if that 92% threshold changes this season, we'll still be in a good position to see which shows will likely be renewed before others.
And since every post we do about renewal or cancellation ends up becoming a post about Moonlight, perhaps this method will allow those of you folks prone to extreme emotional upset over the cancellation of a television show enough advance warning to get out before it's too late and your hearts are broken 
June, 2009 edits: Inspired by our relationship with Nielsen, we are removing older, archived, Nielsen data from the site. The tables below are the same as the one published in August, 2008, except the show and network season to date averages have been removed (and they have been resorted). However, the Renew/Cancel Index which was calculated using the removed numbers is the same as before. For reference, the season average 18-49 viewerships were ABC: 3.71 million, CBS: 3.67 million, NBC: 3.50 million, CW: 1.27 million, and Fox: 4.10 million.
| Programs | Net | Renew/ Cancel index | Fate | |
| LIFE IS WILD | CW | 0.36 | cancelled | |
| CANTERBURY’S LAW | FOX | 0.43 | cancelled | |
| JUST FOR LAUGHS | ABC | 0.47 | cancelled | |
| AMNESIA | NBC | 0.53 | cancelled | |
| MEN IN TREES | ABC | 0.53 | cancelled | |
| K-VILLE | FOX | 0.60 | cancelled | |
| WOMEN’S MURDER CLUB | ABC | 0.64 | cancelled | |
| CARPOOLERS | ABC | 0.65 | cancelled | |
| OCTOBER ROAD | ABC | 0.66 | cancelled | |
| NOTES FROM THE UNDERBELLY | ABC | 0.66 | cancelled | |
| DEXTER | CBS | 0.68 | returned to cable | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 0.69 | ||
| UNHITCHED | FOX | 0.70 | cancelled | |
| BACK TO YOU | FOX | 0.70 | cancelled | |
| FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS | NBC | 0.70 | survived via DirectTV deal | |
| MOONLIGHT | CBS | 0.71 | cancelled | |
| Law And Order: CRIMINAL INTENT | NBC | 0.72 | returned to cable | |
| CASHMERE MAFIA | ABC | 0.72 | cancelled | |
| ALIENS IN AMERICA | CW | 0.73 | cancelled | |
| JERICHO | CBS | 0.73 | cancelled | |
| CANE | CBS | 0.75 | cancelled | |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 0.76 | ||
| WELCOME TO THE CAPTAIN | CBS | 0.77 | cancelled | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 0.79 | ||
| SHARK | CBS | 0.80 | cancelled | |
| LAS VEGAS | NBC | 0.80 | cancelled | |
| NEW AMSTERDAM | FOX | 0.81 | cancelled | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 0.82 | ||
| CAVEMEN | ABC | 0.83 | cancelled | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 0.86 | ||
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 0.92 | ||
| JOURNEYMAN | NBC | 0.92 | cancelled | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 0.93 | ||
| Bones | FOX | 0.93 | ||
| GIRLFRIENDS | CW | 0.93 | ||
| COLD CASE | CBS | 0.93 | ||
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 0.94 | ||
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 0.98 | ||
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 1.00 | ||
| LIFE | NBC | 1.00 | ||
| UNIT, THE | CBS | 1.00 | ||
| American Dad | FOX | 1.00 | ||
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 1.00 | ||
| NCIS | CBS | 1.00 | ||
| BIG SHOTS | ABC | 1.03 | cancelled | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1.04 | ||
| 30 Rock | NBC | 1.04 | ||
| Gossip Girl | CW | 1.05 | ||
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 1.05 | ||
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 1.06 | ||
| REAPER | CW | 1.06 | ||
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 1.09 | ||
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 1.09 | ||
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 1.10 | ||
| CSI: NY | CBS | 1.10 | ||
| SCRUBS | NBC | 1.11 | ||
| Law And Order | NBC | 1.11 | ||
| GAME, THE | CW | 1.12 | ||
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 1.16 | ||
| Chuck | NBC | 1.16 | ||
| MEDIUM | NBC | 1.17 | ||
| Simpsons | FOX | 1.19 | ||
| Private Practice | ABC | 1.25 | ||
| Family Guy | FOX | 1.25 | ||
| E.R. | NBC | 1.25 | ||
| OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 1.27 | ||
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 1.27 | ||
| BIONIC WOMAN | NBC | 1.30 | cancelled | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 1.30 | ||
| Rules of Engagement | CBS | 1.35 | ||
| APPRENTICE 7 | NBC | 1.36 | ||
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 1.36 | ||
| OFFICE | NBC | 1.37 | ||
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 1.37 | ||
| One Tree Hill | CW | 1.39 | ||
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 1.42 | ||
| Smallville | CW | 1.44 | ||
| Friday Night Smackdown | CW | 1.45 | ||
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 1.60 | ||
| CSI | CBS | 1.61 | ||
| LOST | ABC | 1.72 | ||
| HEROES | NBC | 1.99 | ||
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 2.01 | ||
| HOUSE | FOX | 2.05 | ||
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 2.29 |
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Unscripted Shows 2007-8 Season
The existing Renew/Cancel Index was much less clear in indicating the future of unscripted shows. It can give only a general indication, there was no bright line you could point to and say "if it only gets there, it'll be renewed". My guess is that it may be due to the fact that some of these shows are just so cheap to produce that almost any result is "good enough" and that they exist to just fill up programming time as cheaply as possible.
| Programs | Net | Renew/ Cancel index | Fate | |
| CW NOW | CW | 0.29 | cancelled | |
| DUEL | ABC | 0.36 | cancelled | |
| NEXT GREAT AMERICAN BAND | FOX | 0.37 | cancelled | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 0.45 | ||
| CBS MOVIE SATURDAY | CBS | 0.47 | ||
| CRIMETIME SATURDAY | CBS | 0.50 | ||
| ABC SAT MOVIE OF THE WEEK | ABC | 0.52 | ||
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 0.59 | ||
| COPS | FOX | 0.61 | ||
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 0.67 | ||
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 0.67 | ||
| COPS 2 | FOX | 0.71 | ||
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 0.71 | ||
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 0.72 | ||
| PRICE IS RIGHT PRIMETIME | CBS | 0.74 | ||
| MY DAD IS BETR THN YR DAD | NBC | 0.75 | cancelled | |
| Dateline FRI | NBC | 0.75 | ||
| 1 VS 100 | NBC | 0.76 | cancelled | |
| BIG BROTHER 9-WED | CBS | 0.76 | ||
| CROWNED | CW | 0.77 | cancelled | |
| BEAUTY AND THE GEEK-3 | CW | 0.78 | cancelled | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 0.79 | ||
| KID NATION | CBS | 0.80 | cancelled | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 0.81 | ||
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 0.81 | ||
| BIG BROTHER 9-TUE | CBS | 0.82 | ||
| BIG BROTHER 9-SUN | CBS | 0.83 | ||
| PHENOMENON | NBC | 0.85 | cancelled | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 0.85 | ||
| PUSSYCAT DOLLS:GIRLICIOUS | CW | 0.86 | cancelled | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 0.87 | ||
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 0.90 | ||
| DANCE WAR:BRUNO/CARRIEANN | ABC | 0.92 | ||
| BACHELOR: LONDON CALLING | ABC | 0.93 | ||
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 0.93 | ||
| Supernanny | ABC | 0.94 | ||
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 0.98 | ||
| HERE COME THE NEWLYWEDS | ABC | 1.14 | ||
| BACHELOR, THE | ABC | 1.22 | ||
| Biggest Loser 4 | NBC | 1.22 | ||
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 1.24 | ||
| Amazing Race 12 | CBS | 1.26 | ||
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-MON | NBC | 1.28 | ||
| Biggest Loser 5 | NBC | 1.29 | ||
| OPRAH’S BIG GIVE | ABC | 1.31 | Oprah bailed | |
| OT, THE | FOX | 1.40 | ||
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 1.41 | ||
| BEAUTY AND THE GEEK-2 | CW | 1.47 | ||
| SURVIVOR: MICRONESIA | CBS | 1.50 | ||
| AMERICAN GLADIATORS | NBC | 1.52 | ||
| Extreme Makeover:HOME ED. | ABC | 1.59 | ||
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 1.59 | ||
| HELL’S KITCHEN | FOX | 1.65 | ||
| SURVIVOR: CHINA | CBS | 1.66 | ||
| DANCING W/STARS RESULT-TU | ABC | 1.67 | ||
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 1.68 | ||
| DANCING W/THE STARS-MON | ABC | 1.87 | ||
| AMERICA’S Top Model-4 | CW | 1.90 | ||
| MOMENT OF TRUTH | FOX | 1.90 | ||
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 2.37 | ||
| AMERICA’S Top Model-3 | CW | 2.39 | ||
| American Idol-WEDNESDAY | FOX | 3.26 | ||
| American Idol-TUESDAY | FOX | 3.44 |
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*Except for Fox. Because American Idol skews their season 18-49 averages so dramatically, yet has no effect on those averages for the fall I used their 18-49 STD average as of Jan 13, the week before Idol began. For the ongoing index for this season, I will use Fox's ongoing STD average until Idol begins in January.
Of course, all of these numbers suffer from the fact that there was a writer's strike last season, but I can only use the numbers that are available.
Nielsen TV Ratings: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
Oh come on Bill, you know that cancellations have nothing to do with ratings. Networks cancel shows because they hate their viewers.
haha Holly, you have no proof that is true other than with Nina Tassler at CBS.
(note to Ms. Tassler: I'm KIDDING!)
it probably should be noted with a show like Bionic Woman, that it's success was largely front-loaded and its ratings waned dramatically. so even though in total it had better than 92% threshold, it was on a trajectory to get there with only a few more airings.
Robert, I agree.
Since we're starting early, we can also watch week to week trends of the index and add that to our data for conclusions. Something that's impossible with an end of season list like this.
Here come the Newylweds wasn't canceled…. As a matter of fact, ABC just renewed it for a second season yesterday
Bill didn't have the THR Live feed, Zap2It and other TV news chip installed directly in his brain as I did. I think he chose the wiser-path ; )
Chmarin, thanks, it's fixed. That was an error from May that I failed to correct in the original list.
Quick question: Was this done with the season averages the Neilsen's releases (which include in-slot repeats) or just using original episodes?
I didn't know Desperate Hosewives was the #1 scripted show on TV (hell yeah!)
Holly, it was using the Nielsen STD numbers which *do* include in-slot repeats.
They are the only STD numbers that we see.
wopa, DH is likely one of the most valuable shows on TV from a revenue perspective.
Slight modification to Bill's disclaimer: includes any in-slot repeats or in-slot original episodes which were *not* designated as “special” which exempts from counting in the S-T-D averages. All things considered, this ability to “game” the Nielsen numbers isn't abused very much.
I think you can scratch-out the word “likely” above…
What do you mean by “cheap” regarding Til Death? Is it really much cheaper than other canceled sitcoms like Aliens in America or Unhitched?
Thanks Bill and Robert. I was just curious. It doesn't make much difference for the renew/cancel index (unless one show has a lot more reruns than any other on the network), but is does skew the total numbers for shows that show reruns vs those that don't (e.g. CSI vs. Lost).
Holy, I completely agree. DH for example is very skewed compared to Two and a Half Men due to many of its reruns happening out of slot.
Robert, we have no real data on the costs for shows, mostly TV industry rumors, but the story was at the end of the season Fox kept 'Til Death Back to You because of it's lower cost. It was specifically compared to Back to You which had very similar ratings (see above) but because of Kelsey Grammar and Patricia Heaton's salaries was said to be much more expensive. Again, it was all part of the rumor mill.
“And since every post we do about renewal or cancellation ends up becoming a post about Moonlight”
So what does that tell you? That maybe, JUST MAYBE, the Neilsen system isn't as accurate as it likes to think it is *shocking*.
Variables such as what night it was on, what time, strikes, all should play a part in how ratings are calculated rather than flat numbers across the board from a select “chosen few”. If you look back at the top 20 shows on CBS through May 08, Moonlight was there consistently at between 7,500 and 8,000. Trust me, the demo range was 18-49 as well, I'm one of those “extreme emotionally upset …folks” you refer to and I'm 33.
Of course there's more to it than just this index. Both Bill and Robert have already stated that. Things like night, which is why Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer are still around. Cost and profit make a difference too, which is how 60 Minutes will get renewed for another 50 years and reality shows with low ratings get picked up again. Downward trends make a difference, as seen with Bionic Woman. There are lots of factors, but none of them mean that Moonlight merited a second season.
kcferret, the ratings are just statistical calculations done by Nielsen from their available data. Are they perfect? No. Are they the currently accepted standard for evaluating the audience for a TV show and therefore its revenue potential. Yes.
As for all the variables you speak about, I'm sure they were part of the factors considered by CBS programming management in evaluating whether to renew or cancel Moonlight.