Lots of interesting information about DVR use as well as On Demand viewing in a new report out today by MAGNA.
Some highlights:
While younger audiences with DVRs certainly time-shift popular programs in meaningful numbers, the vast majority of these individuals still watch the vast majority of their television content through conventional means. Among the ~20% of households with DVRs in late 2007, 30% accounted for 71% of total DVR usage. Put another way, there is a subset of DVR users who are “power” users, but the vast majority of people use DVRs for a limited amount of programming. So although the frequency with which heavy DVR users can be reached is challenged, DVR proliferation does little to impact prime time network TV’s status as the single most wide-reaching environment for advertisers.
DVR households consume only a third of prime time content in a time-shifted manner. We forecast that 36% of the population will have DVR services by 2012, and presuming all ads were skipped (and that there was no value to a skipped ad) this would equate to a reduction of 11% of prime time ratings points 10 years after the advent of the DVR. This is equivalent to about 2 years worth of erosion due to viewing patterns shifting from broadcast to cable. But even the notion of erosion is a false one, as both cable and DVRs contribute to higher total viewership of television AND disregards that with annual population growth of 1% per year, total television impressions rise by about 20% over a 10 year period.
You can download the entire report by clicking here.
Nice data. I find it very interesting that Comcast’s DVR penetration is significantly less than what Nielsen estimates (17% of Comcast homes have DVRs, Nielsen estimates 24.4% of TV homes in the US for Jan ’09, up from ~21%). I trust the Comcast numbers more since they are actual numbers and not based on estimates. It is possible that the Satellite companies have a higher penetration than Comcast, but I do now wonder if Nielsen doesn’t somewhat overstate DVR penetration.
Don’t point that out, Robert! Now people are going to grasp onto the idea that Nielsen is wrong even more than they already are! Also, I didn’t read the whole report, but does this only include people who have DVR service through Comcast, or does it also include TiVo service? That may explain at least a bit of the discrepancy, though probably not all of it.
What I find most interesting about this report is that I just don’t understand why so many people have a DVR if they aren’t even going to use it. From the day I got my DVR I completely stopped watching live TV. Even if I would want to watch a show at the same time it aired (for discussion purposes on the internet) I would wait 15 mins for a half hour show and 30 for an hour show and still finish right around the same time the rest of my time zone did. And not have to bother with commercials! So what’s the point of a DVR if you’re not going to use it?
Julia, you and I and Robert, and I suspect many folks that visit our site are a pretty skewed sample of TV viewers. We may find DVRs to be life changing devices, but for most folks they’re either a novelty or still entirely unknown.
Julia, the comcast # only measured comcast supplied DVRs, and certainly there are some comcast owners with stand-alone Tivos, though like you I doubt that makes up for all of it — but for all I know it might.
And don’t worry too much, I doubt m/any of “those” people will look at the comments on this post, but I definitely do understand your concern.
Robert,
I’m not so sure that Comcast would be more accurate overall, I think they would be more skewed toward non-DVR users. Even the most basic of satellite systems cost $30/mo. with the DVR only $5-10 extra. The most basic cable package is $15 with only has 20 channels. Getting the DVR with cable requires the higher priced package ($40+). I think cable companies would show a lower percentage of DVR customers than the satellite companies, which could skew the results.
Robert, Julia, Those are all estimates by MAGNA, its not clear how much information they received from the cable or satco’s.
Even so, I don’t think that the MAGNA estimates for Comcast DVR penetration (17%) are at odds with the overall Nielsen DVR estimates (24.4%).
Comcast is in about 25m households, Time Warner is in about 13m. Total cable HHs are 65m. Total Satellite HHs are 30m.
Total TV HHs 114.5m (Nielsen)
For anyone else who didn’t read the entire report, here are MAGNA’s estimates for DVR penetration:
DirecTV: 34%
EchoStar/DISH: 45%
Comcast: 17%
Time Warner: 28%
rats, foiled (by skimming) again. With those %s the Nielsen estimate doesn’t seem out of line at all. Though to the point about Comcast basic Magna estimated ~2/3 of comcast subs have VOD access and that’s a lot more digital cable subs w/some kind of STB already than I would have thought. I’m entering this from the subway on my phone so if it doesn’t show up w/my picture it’s still me!
Well now I wonder why Comcast has such a low DVR usage in relation to the rest of the estimates.
(BTW, speaking of pictures, how does one get one? It would be quite convenient if everyone could add one since I am much quicker to look at a pic than a name.)
Julia, you can go here and create a gravatar (blogspeak for a tiny picture that identifies you)
http://en.gravatar.com/
Then as long as you use the same email address when posting on our site (or I think any blog that allows avatars), your gravatar will appear.
I do think we should promote this to our commenters. I’ll talk to Robert (after he reads this!).