Update: Bill will get the full numbers up shortly but:
- Heroes 9p-11p: 9.89 million (ouch, but it still performed very very well in the 18-49 demo ~5.0 -it should also be noted that Heroes crushed the field in the 18-34 demographic)
- TSCC: 5.816 million (2.3 in 18-49 demo)
- 2.5 Men: 14.926 million (5.3 demo)
- Gossip Girl: 3.35 million
- CSI Miami: 16.866 million w/a 5.1 in the demo
- DWTS: 21.12 million from 8p-10p/5.4 in demo
The early ratings buzz for Monday is in, and there are no surprises for me, save perhaps CSI: Miami, which pulled an 11/18 (rating/share) at 10pm. Keep in mind these early metered market ratings are subject to change even vs. the fast affiliate overnight ratings which follow them shortly thereafter.
Unsurprisingly a two hour Dancing with the Stars led the night with a 13.5/20 share between 8pm-10pm and equally unsurprisingly, almost all of them left when Boston Legal came on, it dipped to a 5.8/10 at 10pm.
CBS had all new episodes and Big Bang Theory and How I Met Your Mother seemed in line with last year. With 5.6/9 and 5.9/9 respectively. Two and a Half Men pulled a 9.0/13, but it will likely dominate among 18-49 year olds once we see the fast affiliate data. Worst Week then dipped to a 6.4/9, which if that holds is worse than Rules of Engagement and The New Adventures of Old Christine did in that slot.
Now for the disappointments: first, I didn't love the two hour Heroes opener which pulled a 6.4/10 from 9p-11p. If that holds, that may be less viewers than last year's finale -- 11.06 million, but that was on December 3, a long time ago -- and it will certainly be less than last year's premiere which scored 16.97 million on a 9.9/14 household rating/share. I knew I wasn't going to love this and while I am not TV critic, it's plain to see that the first season had a very good mix of "good and evil" and that last year and last night did not. When you go to mostly dark, you may get some critical acclaim as in Mad Men or Battlestar Galactica, but one thing you do not get is lots of viewers. Sadly though, the writing just didn't seem particularly good (the writing on Mad Men is typically fantastic, even if it's a "dark" show).
The first half hour of Heroes pulled a 6.8/10, so it seemed like only the show's faithful following showed up to begin with, and then it slowly lost some of them dropping to a 6.1/10 the final half hour. We'll know more when the fast affiliate data arrives.
Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles pulled a 3.9/6, which at least in the metered markets was better than Prison Break's 3.6/5. The CW was down a bit, but only a bit vs first run competition across the board with both Gossip Girl and One Tree Hill pulling a 2.4/4. If CW retained a significant portion of last week's 18-34 female crowd (and judging from these numbers, it will), it will be much happier with these numbers than NBC will be with Heroes...
Bill will post the full overnight report as soon as we get the updated fast affiliate data...
I’m actually surprised at those Heroes numbers, I thought it would bring in more new viewers. Seems to be going around with a lot of shows.
And Robert, does a 3.9/6 for TSCC mean that the Live+SD numbers will hold from last week?
it’s hard to say. Last week in the fast affiliates it had a 4.1, but in the metered markets it had a 3.8, so it’s in the same ballpark on a household basis
I see a third hour of DWTS soon…. LOL.
Ok, I won’t start celebrating my victory yet, but it’s looking like I called it!
Looks like Terminator is still having a hard time thanks for the BS Nielsen numbers. Thankfully it pulled ahead of Prison Break. Heroes wasn’t as big as I was expecting either.
Here’s hoping for a full 22 of Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles
You gave yourself a range of 2 million+ viewers Julia! I went with the under 11.6 million, Bill went with the over. We’ll be able to celebrate, but I’d celebrate more if it was a great two hours with so-so ratings than a so-so two hours with so-so ratings…
And wht about Gossip Girl? Do u think it’ll make 3.5 mill.?
Last night episode was good!
xx
B
My hope is, even though the overall numbers may still be down from last year, if it can at least stay in the same ballpark as last week against new shows and the craftily advertised “3-HOUR HEROES PREMIERE!” that NBC was shouting at the top of their lungs, maybe Fox will see this as a sign the bleeding has stopped. Or at least slowed.
haha…I don’t know, just looking for some kind of good news, if there is any.
Yeah, and my actual prediction (which I didn’t post here) was 9.58 mil, but that will likely be a bit low.
So, Terminator had similar numbers as last week.
it means that TSCC performances are similar with or without competition ?
Or , we have to wait until next week when Chuck premiere…?
Frank, the good news is (at least from my perspective) that the TSCC episode didn’t suck as bad as Heroes did to me. When even the Hiro storyline is annoying to me, there’s no silver lining at all. Nikki as evil twin/ice queen — well given all the split personality stuff prior, that’s just annoying. Speedy Gonzales? Annoying. Peter and Nate being Silas brother? Annoying. Their mother? Annoying.
Ben, it’s hard to say because of the unreliable nature of the metered market numbers, but if those numbers hold up or go up it looks like Gossip Girl held up well and 3.5 million or higher is definitely possible. We should know soon.
TSCC didn’t have a major competition this week and it won’t have it next week wither. Chuck will do badly. PB has been more unfortunate. Heroes is still a powerful show with the same type of audience
Richard, right now of Heroes, TSCC and Chuck, Chuck is definitely the show with the best chances for wide appeal. The downside is that it’s on NBC, so who knows…
Robert,
How are your feelings about the lifespan for TSCC as of right now? Still on 13 Episodes for Season 2, waiting for FOX to order the rest of 22. Give it to me straight, Doc!
Guys,
Variety and The Hollywood Reporter have reported that FOX has ordered 13 episodes of the Tim Roth-headed drama, “Lie To Me”, for midseason. I think this show will replace Sarah Connor.
BTW, I hope your server problems are under control. I need my daily fix!
Thx R
TSCC had almost all the competition it’s going to get this week. It had already faced new episodes of GG. This week it was also up against the premieres of the CBS comedies and DWTS. The only network not airing a new episode of it’s regular programming was NBC. Unless FOX moves TSCC to Wednesday or Thursday, it’s not going to get any more competion than this.
Nielsen has nothing to do with TSCC’s low numbers. Blaming Nielsen is a straw man argument. TSCC is ok, but its not great. It will likely be 13 episodes and that all she wrote. Prison Break should have been axed after Season 1 – that was the only really good one.
Heroes predictably didnt do that well after a lackluster Season 2. It lost that magic of Season 1 and isnt back.
Its definitely true that the darker a series becomes the more fans it loses – same thing happened with JERICHO – of course die hard fans of serial dramas like these think they get better the darker they get. But the vast majority of viewers just dont like it when they become too dark and foreboding.
In general serial dramas generally bleed off fans as time goes on and new viewers rarely pick it up because they dont want to have to catch up. Its why episodic dramas like CSI, L&O and others have consistently high ratings – it doesnt matter if you miss an episode here and there or pick it up in Season 5. I think part of the problem is the shorter attention span of viewers – they want everything wrapped up in a hour – 2 hours at most for a 2 parter. Its tough times for serial drama fans. The only ones that make it more than 2 seasons these days are ones like LOST and HEROES that start out with high viewer numbers 15-20 million – they can afford to lose 1-2 million fans a season while ones starting out near 10 million or less cant.
The thing that bothers me about HEROES is now its ripping off the plotline where more people with powers can be created – THE 4400 on USA already did that with its “promicin in a syringe” deal, except that on that show 50% of the people got powers and the other 50% dropped dead. (HEROES just uses adrenalin injections instead – no word yet n whether its 100% effective or if anyone dies from taking it).
Ronnie, there are some variables that make it hard to prognosticate, but if I do so anyway, just based on the numbers, things do not look good for TSCC getting its back nine.
Andrea, we hope everything is back to (and even better)than normal. It’s been a stressful five days!
I agree with Holly. Though Chuck may be my new favorite, it will be interesting to see how it does say vs. the Heroes “clip show” that ran at 8pm last night. I’m sure if the ratings aren’t great next week people will say it’s because the episode was on the Internet a week early, but I do not buy that having a big impact on broadcast ratings at this point.
I think Robert was right from last week – you can stick a fork in TSCC, it’s done. Fox took its two marginal shows (TSCC and Prison Break) and put them back-to-back on a night with absolutely brutal competition: Dancing With The Stars, Chuck, and Monday Night Football. They did advertise the shows, but I don’t think either show stood a chance.
My prediction is that Fox will air the remaining episodes of TSCC and Prison Break as scheduled, simply because advertisers did pay for certain special promotions of TSCC episodes (the Dodge truck give-away) and there’s nothing else to air on Monday night that’s going to do any better. So, we’ll get our remaining 10 episodes, but that’s going to be it.
Andrea, good catch on “Lie to Me.”