The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.
Our Renew/Cancel Index finds that Boston Legal (Edit: Alert commenter Jason reminds me that this was already slated to be BL's final season, good thing!) and 'Til Death are the scripted shows most likely to be cancelled in the new 2008-9 broadcast television season. In fact, Fox's Do Not Disturb was the most likely to be cancelled, but Fox beat us to it and already cancelled the show. The other scripted shows in significant danger of being cancelled are The New Adventures of Old Christine, Lipstick Jungle, Knight Rider, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Gary Unmarried, and My Name is Earl.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
Of course there are special circumstances, and this is only one week's worth of network average data (although the show average data does include 2008-9 season airings prior to September 22), so I would expect substantial fluctuations in this list early in the season. I'm confident that the shows at the top of the list come the end of the season are likely to be cancelled as I am that the shows at the bottom of the list are likely to be renewed.
The current shows most likely to be renewed are: Grey's Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, House, Two and a Half Men, CSI: Miami, 90210, Criminal Minds, Heroes, Simpsons, and Family Guy.
Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
Without further ado, here's the first Renew/Cancel Index list of scripted shows ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled:
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index |
| CANCELLATION LIKELY | ||||
| DO NOT DISTURB (cancelled) | FOX | 2,097 | 3,960 | 0.53 |
| BOSTON LEGAL (final season) | ABC | 3,108 | 5,030 | 0.62 |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,454 | 3,960 | 0.62 |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,781 | 4,060 | 0.68 |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 3,146 | 4,400 | 0.72 |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,271 | 4,400 | 0.74 |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,954 | 3,960 | 0.75 |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,146 | 4,060 | 0.77 |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,569 | 4,400 | 0.81 |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,388 | 1,660 | 0.84 |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,332 | 3,960 | 0.84 |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,444 | 4,060 | 0.85 |
| CANCELLATION POSSIBLE | ||||
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,527 | 4,060 | 0.87 |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 4,388 | 5,030 | 0.87 |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,631 | 4,060 | 0.89 |
| CANCELLATION UNLIKELY | ||||
| E.R. (final season) | NBC | 4,314 | 4,400 | 0.98 |
| Bones | FOX | 4,190 | 3,960 | 1.06 |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,286 | 3,960 | 1.08 |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,431 | 3,960 | 1.12 |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,993 | 4,400 | 1.13 |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,663 | 4,060 | 1.15 |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,690 | 4,060 | 1.16 |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,727 | 4,060 | 1.16 |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,984 | 1,660 | 1.20 |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 6,061 | 5,030 | 1.20 |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,966 | 4,060 | 1.22 |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,233 | 4,060 | 1.29 |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,183 | 1,660 | 1.32 |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,342 | 4,060 | 1.32 |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,248 | 3,960 | 1.33 |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,271 | 1,660 | 1.37 |
| Smallville | CW | 2,350 | 1,660 | 1.42 |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,479 | 4,400 | 1.47 |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,891 | 3,960 | 1.49 |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,926 | 3,960 | 1.50 |
| HEROES | NBC | 6,619 | 4,400 | 1.50 |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 6,228 | 4,060 | 1.53 |
| 90210 | CW | 2,681 | 1,660 | 1.62 |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 6,874 | 4,060 | 1.69 |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,998 | 4,060 | 1.72 |
| HOUSE | FOX | 7,056 | 3,960 | 1.78 |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 9,358 | 5,030 | 1.86 |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 9,760 | 5,030 | 1.94 |
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However, it's likely that America's Toughest Jobs and Opportunity Knocks are in significant danger of being cancelled or not returning when their run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,477 | 4,400 | 0.34 |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,028 | 5,030 | 0.40 |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,040 | 5,030 | 0.41 |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,433 | 5,030 | 0.48 |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 2,065 | 3,960 | 0.52 |
| COPS | FOX | 2,108 | 3,960 | 0.53 |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,118 | 3,960 | 0.53 |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,345 | 4,060 | 0.58 |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,305 | 3,960 | 0.58 |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,951 | 5,030 | 0.59 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,492 | 3,960 | 0.63 |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,515 | 3,960 | 0.64 |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,233 | 5,030 | 0.64 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,997 | 4,400 | 0.68 |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 2,908 | 4,060 | 0.72 |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P | FOX | 3,217 | 3,960 | 0.81 |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 3,309 | 3,960 | 0.84 |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,093 | 4,400 | 0.93 |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,932 | 5,030 | 0.98 |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,241 | 4,060 | 1.04 |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 5,273 | 4,400 | 1.20 |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 7,052 | 5,030 | 1.40 |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,900 | 4,060 | 1.45 |
| THE OT | FOX | 5,790 | 3,960 | 1.46 |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,544 | 1,660 | 1.53 |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 6,842 | 4,400 | 1.56 |
| CBS NFL NATL POST GUN | CBS | 7,443 | 4,060 | 1.83 |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 10,032 | 4,400 | 2.28 |
We already knew that this was going to be the final season of Boston Legal. ABC renewed it for 13 episodes and confirmed that was it back in the spring.
See this Zap2it story from May 13:
http://www.zap2it.com/tv/news/zap-bostonlegalfinalseason,0,7596840.story
Jason, you’re right of course and we knew that. Bill perhaps should’ve disclaimed this. How happy ABC is with DEK after the Life on Mars situation I’m not sure, but barring that it seems very unlikely to me that ABC wouldn’t let it finish it’s planned run.
Jason, correct you are. I have edited the post!
I wouldn’t be confident of Old Christine. CBS will give the Wednesday comedy block a fair shake I think, and in the event that it doesn’t work out, CBS would have a Christine vs. Worst Week decisions when it comes to Mondays at 9:30p
That is why I added the disclaimer “Of course there are special circumstances, and this is only one week’s worth of network average data…so I would expect substantial fluctuations in this list early in the season.”
whats the ideal index?
sam, higher index numbers are good, lower index numbers are bad, but there isn’t really an “ideal”.
I will be adding more explanatory text later, but the site is under significant load now and editing the posts has become difficult.
Hi Bill, was wondering where you were…
Why did you reverse the index? It’s easier to read with the higher demo shows at the top.
We haven’t proved successful at load-balancing our site’s traffic, but we are better at load-balancing the workload. I’m taking the overnight posts this week because I will be taking off for a week starting Sunday while I move residences.
As for sorting, I vote for keeping it how he has it here. I believe the most likely shows to be cancelled should be at the top. Of course when it comes to this list, only Bill’s vote matters!
Andrea, I wanted to highlight the shows most likely to be cancelled rather than the shows most likely *not* to be cancelled, but I’m still experimenting and we’ll see how things proceed.
This is a really clever and accurate way to measure this stuff.
I’m surprised “My Name is Earl” is doing so poorly.
So, what about a show that does very well with overall viewers, but has a low demo? I’m thinking about Without a Trace specifically. That seems a long shot to be canceled.
Mike, although in many ways this Index is all about jumping the gun, nothing is certain with data this early in the season.
However, last season, except in a few instances, life and death for TV shows was correlated very strongly with their 18-49 performance relative to their network’s 18-49 performance.
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
” CBS would have a Christine vs. Worst Week decisions when it comes to Mondays at 9:30p”
and they have Rules of Engagement to fit somewhere too
I agree with ‘Til Death. It’s a little surprising that FOX had renewed it for a third season when they canceled other comedies after one year such as Back To You
Thanks for the list!
I’m really upset with the Old Christine facts. The fact of the matter is that CBS took a huge gamble making it lead off a new comedy block against such strong competition. I hope CBS will realize that and let the show run for a full season first before making their final decision. I mean, they shouldn’t fall in love with Worst Week yet… whatever follows Two and a Half Men is going to get the good ratings… take Worst Week away from it and it would probably only pull 6 million or less also.
I just hope they give Old Christine the time of day. It is a fantastic show that is completely under appreciated.
As for Til Death… I watch it and enjoy it, but I’m not surprised. The ratings are pretty dismal!
ugh this is unfortunate, Terminator: SCC is a pretty good show. Maybe I should start watching the network broadcast instead of downloading it after the fact…
Where does Chuck fit in all of this?
Chuck had not yet aired for the most recent week we have full final numbers for, so check back next week.