'

Renew or Cancel Index: 'Til Death Most Likely To Be Cancelled

Categories: '

Written By

September 30th, 2008

The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.

Our Renew/Cancel Index finds that Boston Legal (Edit: Alert commenter Jason reminds me that this was already slated to be BL's final season, good thing!) and 'Til Death are the scripted shows most likely to be cancelled in the new 2008-9 broadcast television season. In fact, Fox's Do Not Disturb was the most likely to be cancelled, but Fox beat us to it and already cancelled the show. The other scripted shows in significant danger of being cancelled are The New Adventures of Old Christine, Lipstick Jungle, Knight Rider, Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, Gary Unmarried, and My Name is Earl.

How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.

Of course there are special circumstances, and this is only one week's worth of network average data (although the show average data does include 2008-9 season airings prior to September 22), so I would expect substantial fluctuations in this list early in the season. I'm confident that the shows at the top of the list come the end of the season are likely to be cancelled as I am that the shows at the bottom of the list are likely to be renewed.

The current shows most likely to be renewed are: Grey's Anatomy, Desperate Housewives, House, Two and a Half Men, CSI: Miami, 90210, Criminal Minds, Heroes, Simpsons, and Family Guy.

Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.

Without further ado, here's the first Renew/Cancel Index list of scripted shows ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled:


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index
CANCELLATION LIKELY    
DO NOT DISTURB (cancelled) FOX 2,097 3,960 0.53
BOSTON LEGAL (final season) ABC 3,108 5,030 0.62
TIL DEATH FOX 2,454 3,960 0.62
NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE CBS 2,781 4,060 0.68
LIPSTICK JUNGLE NBC 3,146 4,400 0.72
KNIGHT RIDER NBC 3,271 4,400 0.74
TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES FOX 2,954 3,960 0.75
GARY UNMARRIED CBS 3,146 4,060 0.77
MY NAME IS EARL NBC 3,569 4,400 0.81
PRIVILEGED CW 1,388 1,660 0.84
PRISON BREAK FOX 3,332 3,960 0.84
THE UNIT CBS 3,444 4,060 0.85
CANCELLATION POSSIBLE    
COLD CASE CBS 3,527 4,060 0.87
UGLY BETTY ABC 4,388 5,030 0.87
WITHOUT A TRACE CBS 3,631 4,060 0.89
CANCELLATION UNLIKELY    
E.R. (final season) NBC 4,314 4,400 0.98
BONES FOX 4,190 3,960 1.06
American Dad FOX 4,286 3,960 1.08
KING OF THE HILL FOX 4,431 3,960 1.12
Law And Order:SVU NBC 4,993 4,400 1.13
THE Mentalist CBS 4,663 4,060 1.15
The Big Bang Theory CBS 4,690 4,060 1.16
NCIS CBS 4,727 4,060 1.16
Supernatural CW 1,984 1,660 1.20
BROTHERS & SISTERS ABC 6,061 5,030 1.20
WORST WEEK CBS 4,966 4,060 1.22
CSI: NY CBS 5,233 4,060 1.29
One Tree Hill CW 2,183 1,660 1.32
How I Met Your Mother CBS 5,342 4,060 1.32
Fringe FOX 5,248 3,960 1.33
Gossip Girl CW 2,271 1,660 1.37
Smallville CW 2,350 1,660 1.42
OFFICE NBC 6,479 4,400 1.47
Family Guy FOX 5,891 3,960 1.49
Simpsons FOX 5,926 3,960 1.50
HEROES NBC 6,619 4,400 1.50
Criminal Minds CBS 6,228 4,060 1.53
90210 CW 2,681 1,660 1.62
CSI: MIAMI CBS 6,874 4,060 1.69
Two and a Half Men CBS 6,998 4,060 1.72
HOUSE FOX 7,056 3,960 1.78
Desperate Housewives ABC 9,358 5,030 1.86
GREY'S ANATOMY ABC 9,760 5,030 1.94

----------------------------------------------------------------

For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However, it's likely that America's Toughest Jobs and Opportunity Knocks are in significant danger of being cancelled or not returning when their run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,477 4,400 0.34
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 2,028 5,030 0.40
20/20-FRI ABC 2,040 5,030 0.41
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,433 5,030 0.48
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 2,065 3,960 0.52
COPS FOX 2,108 3,960 0.53
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 2,118 3,960 0.53
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,345 4,060 0.58
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,305 3,960 0.58
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,951 5,030 0.59
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 2,492 3,960 0.63
COPS 2 FOX 2,515 3,960 0.64
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,233 5,030 0.64
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,997 4,400 0.68
60 Minutes CBS 2,908 4,060 0.72
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX 3,217 3,960 0.81
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 3,309 3,960 0.84
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,093 4,400 0.93
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 4,932 5,030 0.98
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,241 4,060 1.04
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 5,273 4,400 1.20
Dancing with the Stars ABC 7,052 5,030 1.40
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,900 4,060 1.45
THE OT FOX 5,790 3,960 1.46
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,544 1,660 1.53
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 6,842 4,400 1.56
CBS NFL NATL POST GUN CBS 7,443 4,060 1.83
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 10,032 4,400 2.28
 
© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures