10/13 Update: Production on both Valentine and Easy Money has been shut down.
This list is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.
The second week of our Renew/Cancel Index finds the entire Sunday night line up on the CW, (In Harm's Way, Valentine, and Easy Money) produced by Media Rights Capital, premiering at the top of our most likely to be cancelled list. But we really don't know anything about the deal between the CW and Media Rights Capital, it may very well put those shows in a special category where they are resistant to cancellation, or not. If anyone knows, we're listening. Update: Alert commenter Lieven noted that In Harm's Way is unscripted and should be in the bottom list.
Premiering last week and jumping right onto the hot seat behind the CW Sunday shows is NBC's Life, a marginal hold over from last season that perhaps is past its sell by date. Pushing Daisies, next in line, is in a similar bring back from the strike to a dangerously slow start. In a result cheered by many disgruntled Moonlight fans, its time slot "replacement" on Friday The Ex List debuted to terrible numbers. 'Til Death and The New Adventures of Old Christine were already in the cancel zone last week, but Everybody Hates Chris and The Game debuted into CW's new Friday graveyard looking like the Walking Dead. The season premiere of Numb3rs was very weak, but remember that last season it was one of only five shows to survive beneath the magic 0.92 cancellation index line. Perhaps it has a special pass from CBS.
Remember, its still only the second week of the season and the situation is very fluid. Show results go up and down, as do their networks 18-49 averages. I don't hold out a lot of hope for the shows at the top (most likely to be cancelled), but I think plenty of the shows in the middle of the list can migrate into the safe zone before its too late. Edit: In response to a point by commenter Holly, let me be clear that "cancellation" in terms of this Index means a show doesn't get renewed for another season, not that it gets pulled off the schedule in the middle of its run this season. Getting pulled from the schedule before the end of a season is something that's likely only for the very worst performing shows at the very top of the list.
Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
Here is the Renew/Cancel Index list of scripted shows for results as of 10/5/08 ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled:
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| VALENTINE | CW | 516 | 1,570 | 0.33 | *CW MRC |
| EASY MONEY | CW | 532 | 1,570 | 0.34 | *CW MRC |
| LIFE | NBC | 2,201 | 4,040 | 0.54 | **Friday |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,650 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,698 | 4,340 | 0.62 | |
| THE EX LIST | CBS | 2,659 | 4,110 | 0.65 | **Friday |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,391 | 3,650 | 0.66 | |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,697 | 4,110 | 0.66 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS | CW | 1,031 | 1,570 | 0.66 | **Friday |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,875 | 4,340 | 0.66 | final season |
| NUMB3RS | CBS | 2,757 | 4,110 | 0.67 | **Friday |
| THE GAME | CW | 1,089 | 1,570 | 0.69 | **Friday |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,893 | 4,040 | 0.72 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 3,193 | 4,340 | 0.74 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,034 | 4,110 | 0.74 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,884 | 3,650 | 0.79 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER | CBS | 3,302 | 4,110 | 0.80 | **Friday |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,252 | 4,040 | 0.80 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,334 | 1,570 | 0.85 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,521 | 4,110 | 0.86 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,623 | 4,110 | 0.88 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,630 | 4,110 | 0.88 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,231 | 3,650 | 0.89 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,853 | 4,340 | 0.89 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,593 | 4,040 | 0.89 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,601 | 4,040 | 0.89 | |
| RENEWAL LIKELY FOR SHOWS BELOW THIS LINE | |||||
| Private Practice | ABC | 4,323 | 4,340 | 1.00 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,314 | 4,040 | 1.07 | final season |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,422 | 4,110 | 1.08 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,545 | 4,110 | 1.11 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,668 | 4,110 | 1.14 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,717 | 4,110 | 1.15 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,194 | 3,650 | 1.15 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,384 | 3,650 | 1.20 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,424 | 3,650 | 1.21 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,975 | 4,040 | 1.23 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,948 | 1,570 | 1.24 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,124 | 4,110 | 1.25 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 5,533 | 4,340 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,345 | 4,110 | 1.30 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,691 | 4,110 | 1.38 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,239 | 1,570 | 1.43 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,261 | 1,570 | 1.44 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,325 | 3,650 | 1.46 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,354 | 3,650 | 1.47 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,303 | 1,570 | 1.47 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 6,343 | 4,110 | 1.54 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,768 | 3,650 | 1.58 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 6,410 | 4,040 | 1.59 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,587 | 4,110 | 1.60 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,479 | 4,040 | 1.60 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,606 | 1,570 | 1.66 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 7,087 | 3,650 | 1.94 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 8,539 | 4,340 | 1.97 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 9,760 | 4,340 | 2.25 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.
*CW MRC - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). We've been toldand Mediaweek has reported (correct us if we're wrong) that these shows are contractually in for a minimum of a 13 week run regardless of results.
**Friday - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However, it's likely that America's Toughest Jobs, Wife Swap and Supernanny (Update: And In Harm's Way) are in significant danger of being cancelled or not returning when their run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY | CW | 385 | 1,570 | 0.25 | |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,420 | 4,040 | 0.35 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,707 | 4,340 | 0.39 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,914 | 4,340 | 0.44 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 1,949 | 4,340 | 0.45 | |
| HALF THEIR SIZE | ABC | 2,158 | 4,340 | 0.50 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 2,035 | 4,040 | 0.50 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,268 | 4,340 | 0.52 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 2,010 | 3,650 | 0.55 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,021 | 3,650 | 0.55 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,404 | 4,340 | 0.55 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,345 | 4,110 | 0.57 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,108 | 3,650 | 0.58 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,302 | 3,650 | 0.63 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,378 | 3,650 | 0.65 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,951 | 4,340 | 0.68 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,512 | 3,650 | 0.69 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,137 | 4,340 | 0.72 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,986 | 4,040 | 0.74 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P | FOX | 2,845 | 3,650 | 0.78 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 3,483 | 4,340 | 0.80 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 3,309 | 3,650 | 0.91 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 4,100 | 4,110 | 1.00 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,059 | 4,040 | 1.00 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,390 | 4,110 | 1.07 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,928 | 4,340 | 1.14 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 5,039 | 4,340 | 1.16 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,943 | 4,040 | 1.22 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,907 | 4,110 | 1.44 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 6,413 | 4,340 | 1.48 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 6,369 | 4,040 | 1.58 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 5,790 | 3,650 | 1.59 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,529 | 1,570 | 1.61 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 9,434 | 4,040 | 2.34 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
You should have a caveat for CBS in general, and Fridays in particular. GW and Numbers I doubt will be canceled, even if they appear at the top of the list all season long.
I think the special pass Numb3rs has from CBS is that it airs on Friday night. This demo index isn’t really fair to any series airing on Friday.
lol, beat me to the punch Andrea.
There should also probably be caveats re: Worst Week and CBS’ Wednesday 8pm comedy block. It’s somewhat apples-to-pears, but last year in the Monday 9:30pm slot, Christine had a 1.27, which is better than Worst Week’s 1.08. It’s clear Christine isn’t holding its own Wednesdays at 8pm, but last year it was better at retaining 2.5 Men’s 18-49 base on Mondays than Worst Week has been so far.
Please tell me you made those numbers up! How could Pushing Daisies possibly have a higher cancellation probability than the crappy “Knight Rider”??!!!
well for shows like pushing daisies remember it only has aired one episode. id check this chart on november 7 and that will give u a real idea after a few weeks of ratings and episodes. plus i hope pushing daisies doesnt get cancelled such a good show and its something i can watch with the girlfriend that she likes. chuck didnt do so good this week either which isnt freat but hopefully it did fine with the demos since that matters more
Unfortunately, the reason Pushing Daisies may look better in a few weeks is more likely going to be because the rest of ABC’s shows will be deflated as they won’t be premiere episodes. As much as I wish PD would suddenly get a huge increase, I’m not hopeful.
Jason, This index is based on how many viewers 18-49 a show has. Knight Rider had a 2.4 in the demo last week. Pushing Daisies only had a 2.0. NBC has a lot of problems in their schedule, so unless KR starts dropping (still possible) there is no way it’s getting canceled. On the other hand, not many shows will survive long with a 2.0 or lower, so Pushing Daisies is very much in danger if it’s ratings don’t improve.
Jason, Rob and Julia are right, things this early in the season are very fluid, show averages and network averages will rise and fall and the positions of the shows on this list will change.
That said, Pushing Daisies needs to make a big move for the better or The Pie Hole is going out of business.
I’m with Holly, plus KR again last week crushed almost all its competition with men 18-34 and men 18-49. It didn’t “crush” Bones in those demos, but it did beat Bones in those demos.
I really, really want Life to survive this season but the lack of promotions isn’t helping the show, together with Life being ping ponged between Monday and Fridays there’s a lot of confusion regarding the schedule for the show among fans. How do they expect this show to survive if there’s hardly any support from the Network?
i know the numbers are what they are, but its really unlikely that my name is earl will be canceled. it will be moved to 830 or 930 for a year before a pathetic network like nbc lets go of a show thats kind of well known.
I think that you can count on the indexes for all the NBC shows to improve after football season because NBC’s 18-49 network average will head down once Sunday Night Football ends.
And for Earl in particular, its just barely outside the safe zone now. I wouldn’t worry about it.
For the most part, I think the shows in the “Cancellation Possible” section aren’t in real danger of being pulled in the middle of their run. They’re more likely to be “bubble” shows or not given another season when it comes time for renewals.
Holly, you raise a good semantic point. To me (and the Index) “cancellation” means you don’t come back next year, not that you get yanked mid run. I’m going to edit the post to reflect that.
Maybe change it to “Renewal likely, renewal possible, renewal unlikely”?
I think people just get antsy when they see the word “cancellation” anywhere close to their favorite show.
Hi, why is Ghost Whisperer on the most likely to be canceled list? Its season 4 premiere had over nine million viewers.
Jason, GW and Numb3rs were exceptions on the index last year. Since they air on Friday, expectations are lower for them than the rest of the shows.
That “Cancellation Likely” just wasn’t working at the top, too confusing for many folks. I took it out until I can think of some better way to present things. Holly, took your suggestion and made the magic line a “renewal likely” line.