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Renew or Cancel Index: Valentine Most Likely To Be Cancelled

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October 7th, 2008

10/13 Update: Production on both Valentine and Easy Money has been shut down.

This list is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.

The second week of our Renew/Cancel Index finds the entire Sunday night line up on the CW, (In Harm's Way, Valentine, and Easy Money) produced by Media Rights Capital, premiering at the top of our most likely to be cancelled list. But we really don't know anything about the deal between the CW and Media Rights Capital, it may very well put those shows in a special category where they are resistant to cancellation, or not. If anyone knows, we're listening. Update: Alert commenter Lieven noted that In Harm's Way is unscripted and should be in the bottom list.

Premiering last week and jumping right onto the hot seat behind the CW Sunday shows is NBC's Life, a marginal hold over from last season that perhaps is past its sell by date. Pushing Daisies, next in line, is in a similar bring back from the strike to a dangerously slow start. In a result cheered by many disgruntled Moonlight fans, its time slot "replacement" on Friday The Ex List debuted to terrible numbers. 'Til Death and The New Adventures of Old Christine were already in the cancel zone last week, but Everybody Hates Chris and The Game debuted into CW's new Friday graveyard looking like The Walking Dead. The season premiere of Numb3rs was very weak, but remember that last season it was one of only five shows to survive beneath the magic 0.92 cancellation index line. Perhaps it has a special pass from CBS.

Remember, its still only the second week of the season and the situation is very fluid. Show results go up and down, as do their networks 18-49 averages. I don't hold out a lot of hope for the shows at the top (most likely to be cancelled), but I think plenty of the shows in the middle of the list can migrate into the safe zone before its too late. Edit: In response to a point by commenter Holly, let me be clear that "cancellation" in terms of this Index means a show doesn't get renewed for another season, not that it gets pulled off the schedule in the middle of its run this season. Getting pulled from the schedule before the end of a season is something that's likely only for the very worst performing shows at the very top of the list.

Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.

Here is the Renew/Cancel Index list of scripted shows for results as of 10/5/08 ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled:


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
VALENTINE CW 516 1,570 0.33 *CW MRC
EASY MONEY CW 532 1,570 0.34 *CW MRC
LIFE NBC 2,201 4,040 0.54  **Friday
DO NOT DISTURB FOX 2,097 3,650 0.57 cancelled
PUSHING DAISIES ABC 2,698 4,340 0.62  
THE EX LIST CBS 2,659 4,110 0.65   **Friday
TIL DEATH FOX 2,391 3,650 0.66  
NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE CBS 2,697 4,110 0.66  
EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS CW 1,031 1,570 0.66   **Friday
BOSTON LEGAL ABC 2,875 4,340 0.66 final season
NUMB3RS CBS 2,757 4,110 0.67   **Friday
THE GAME CW 1,089 1,570 0.69   **Friday
LIPSTICK JUNGLE NBC 2,893 4,040 0.72  
DIRTY SEXY MONEY ABC 3,193 4,340 0.74  
GARY UNMARRIED CBS 3,034 4,110 0.74  
TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES FOX 2,884 3,650 0.79  
GHOST WHISPERER CBS 3,302 4,110 0.80   **Friday
KNIGHT RIDER NBC 3,252 4,040 0.80  
PRIVILEGED CW 1,334 1,570 0.85  
THE UNIT CBS 3,521 4,110 0.86  
COLD CASE CBS 3,623 4,110 0.88  
WITHOUT A TRACE CBS 3,630 4,110 0.88  
PRISON BREAK FOX 3,231 3,650 0.89  
UGLY BETTY ABC 3,853 4,340 0.89  
MY NAME IS EARL NBC 3,593 4,040 0.89  
CHUCK NBC 3,601 4,040 0.89  
RENEWAL LIKELY FOR SHOWS BELOW THIS LINE          
Private Practice ABC 4,323 4,340 1.00  
E.R. NBC 4,314 4,040 1.07 final season
WORST WEEK CBS 4,422 4,110 1.08  
The Big Bang Theory CBS 4,545 4,110 1.11  
NCIS CBS 4,668 4,110 1.14  
THE Mentalist CBS 4,717 4,110 1.15  
BONES FOX 4,194 3,650 1.15  
KING OF THE HILL FOX 4,384 3,650 1.20  
American Dad FOX 4,424 3,650 1.21  
Law And Order:SVU NBC 4,975 4,040 1.23  
Supernatural CW 1,948 1,570 1.24  
How I Met Your Mother CBS 5,124 4,110 1.25  
BROTHERS & SISTERS ABC 5,533 4,340 1.27  
CSI: NY CBS 5,345 4,110 1.30  
Criminal Minds CBS 5,691 4,110 1.38  
One Tree Hill CW 2,239 1,570 1.43  
Smallville CW 2,261 1,570 1.44  
Fringe FOX 5,325 3,650 1.46  
Simpsons FOX 5,354 3,650 1.47  
Gossip Girl CW 2,303 1,570 1.47  
CSI: MIAMI CBS 6,343 4,110 1.54  
Family Guy FOX 5,768 3,650 1.58  
HEROES NBC 6,410 4,040 1.59  
Two and a Half Men CBS 6,587 4,110 1.60  
OFFICE NBC 6,479 4,040 1.60  
90210 CW 2,606 1,570 1.66  
HOUSE FOX 7,087 3,650 1.94  
Desperate Housewives ABC 8,539 4,340 1.97  
GREY'S ANATOMY ABC 9,760 4,340 2.25  

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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership.

*CW MRC - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). We've been toldand Mediaweek has reported (correct us if we're wrong) that these shows are contractually in for a minimum of a 13 week run regardless of results.

**Friday - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.

How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.

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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However, it's likely that America's Toughest Jobs, Wife Swap and Supernanny (Update: And In Harm's Way) are in significant danger of being cancelled or not returning when their run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.


PROGRAM Net STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) Network Avg. STD 18-49 Renew/ Cancel index Status
IN HARM'S WAY CW 385 1,570 0.25
AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS NBC 1,420 4,040 0.35  
WIFE SWAP ABC 1,707 4,340 0.39  
SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME ABC 1,914 4,340 0.44  
Supernanny ABC 1,949 4,340 0.45  
HALF THEIR SIZE ABC 2,158 4,340 0.50  
DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI NBC 2,035 4,040 0.50  
20/20-FRI ABC 2,268 4,340 0.52  
SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER FOX 2,010 3,650 0.55  
DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS FOX 2,021 3,650 0.55  
OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS ABC 2,404 4,340 0.55  
48 Hours Mystery CBS 2,345 4,110 0.57  
COPS FOX 2,108 3,650 0.58  
HOLE IN WALL THU-8P FOX 2,302 3,650 0.63  
AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK FOX 2,378 3,650 0.65  
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P ABC 2,951 4,340 0.68  
COPS 2 FOX 2,512 3,650 0.69  
SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL ABC 3,137 4,340 0.72  
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 NBC 2,986 4,040 0.74  
HOLE IN WALL THU-8:30P FOX 2,845 3,650 0.78  
AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS ABC 3,483 4,340 0.80  
Kitchen Nightmares FOX 3,309 3,650 0.91  
60 Minutes CBS 4,100 4,110 1.00  
Biggest Loser 6 NBC 4,059 4,040 1.00  
Amazing Race 13 CBS 4,390 4,110 1.07  
DANCING W/STARS RESULTS ABC 4,928 4,340 1.14  
Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P ABC 5,039 4,340 1.16  
FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 NBC 4,943 4,040 1.22  
SURVIVOR: GABON CBS 5,907 4,110 1.44  
Dancing with the Stars ABC 6,413 4,340 1.48  
SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK NBC 6,369 4,040 1.58  
THE OT FOX 5,790 3,650 1.59  
AMERICA'S Top Model-5 CW 2,529 1,570 1.61  
NBC Sunday Night Football NBC 9,434 4,040 2.34  

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.

 
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