The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.
The third week of our Renew/Cancel Index finds the shows most likely to be cancelled for each of the broadcast networks being Easy Money (CW), Life (NBC), The Ex List (CBS), Pushing Daisies (ABC) and 'Til Death (Fox). Other shows in danger are Everybody Hates Chris, The New Adventures of Old Christine, Numb3rs, Dirty Sexy Money and Lipstick Jungle.
The two CW scripted shows on Sunday night produced by Media Rights Capital, Valentine and Easy Money, had their production halted this week as the producer evaluates their future. My guess is that evaluation doesn't produce positive results. 10/15 Update: They have now been placed on "hiatus", a nice way of saying "removed from the schedule". The current announcement says it will be temporary until late November / early December. We'll see about that.
The premieres last week of Eleventh Hour, Kath & Kim and Life on Mars were good enough to put them into the safe zone. At least for now.
It is still early in the season and shows continue to shift up and down the list. In our original list, for example, My Name is Earl looked in danger, but now it's edged into the safe zone. Other shows like Prison Break and Ugly Betty are improving their standing as well. How far from safety is too far to sustain the hope of fans? It's too early to know for sure, but fans of the shows near the top of the list shouldn't be making any long term viewing plans.
10/15 Update: The first two airings of Friday Night Smackdown! on MyNetworkTV averaged 1.378 million adults 18-49, noticeably better than both Everybody Hates Chris and The Game, which the CW has airing in that timeslot now.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the list are guesses on what might happen this season:
- Cancellation in or before January. The networks have a line up of shows ready to go in mid-season to replace poor Fall performers.
- Cancellation in May. Fans for the shows just above the "renewal likely" line will likely be in for some anxiety around show renewal time in April/May.
- Renewal for 2009-10.
And now, here is the Renew/Cancel Index list of scripted shows for results as of October 12, 2008 ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled:
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY* | CW | 463 | 1,460 | 0.32 | production halted |
| VALENTINE* | CW | 507 | 1,460 | 0.35 | production halted |
| LIFE** | NBC | 2,037 | 3,880 | 0.53 | |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,630 | 0.58 | cancelled |
| THE EX LIST** | CBS | 2,560 | 4,150 | 0.62 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,653 | 4,190 | 0.63 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,367 | 3,630 | 0.65 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS** | CW | 959 | 1,460 | 0.66 | |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,749 | 4,150 | 0.66 | |
| NUMB3RS** | CBS | 2,811 | 4,150 | 0.68 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,903 | 4,190 | 0.69 | final season |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,909 | 4,190 | 0.69 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,757 | 3,880 | 0.71 | |
| THE GAME** | CW | 1,073 | 1,460 | 0.73 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,060 | 4,150 | 0.74 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,925 | 3,630 | 0.81 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,165 | 3,880 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER** | CBS | 3,438 | 4,150 | 0.83 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,483 | 4150 | 0.84 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,293 | 3,880 | 0.85 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,618 | 4,150 | 0.87 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,641 | 4,150 | 0.88 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,186 | 3,630 | 0.88 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,736 | 4,190 | 0.89 | |
| RENEWAL LIKELY BELOW THIS LINE | |||||
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,861 | 4,190 | 0.92 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,352 | 1,460 | 0.93 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,612 | 3,880 | 0.93 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,272 | 4150 | 1.03 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,281 | 4,150 | 1.03 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 4,274 | 3,880 | 1.10 | |
| Big Bang Theory, THE | CBS | 4,647 | 4,150 | 1.12 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,721 | 4,150 | 1.14 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,727 | 4,150 | 1.14 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 4,828 | 4,190 | 1.15 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,228 | 3,630 | 1.16 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,384 | 3,630 | 1.21 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,424 | 3,630 | 1.22 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,763 | 3,880 | 1.23 | final season |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,186 | 4,150 | 1.25 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 5,254 | 4,190 | 1.25 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,983 | 3,880 | 1.28 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,909 | 1,460 | 1.31 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,439 | 4,150 | 1.31 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,688 | 4,150 | 1.37 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,106 | 1,460 | 1.44 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 6,007 | 4,150 | 1.45 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,328 | 3,630 | 1.47 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,355 | 3,630 | 1.48 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,217 | 1,460 | 1.52 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,239 | 1,460 | 1.53 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 6,139 | 3,880 | 1.58 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,769 | 3,630 | 1.59 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,646 | 4,150 | 1.60 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,417 | 3,880 | 1.65 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,181 | 3,630 | 1.70 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,554 | 1,460 | 1.75 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 8,304 | 4,190 | 1.98 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 9,005 | 4,190 | 2.15 | |
| CSI | CBS | 9,421 | 4,150 | 2.27 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
*CW MRC Sunday - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). We've been told and Mediaweek has reported (correct us if we're wrong) that these shows are contractually in for a minimum of a 13 week run regardless of results.
**Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However, it's likely that In Harm's Way, America's Toughest Jobs, Wife Swap and Supernanny are in significant danger of being cancelled or not returning when their run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY* | CW | 398 | 1,460 | 0.27 | |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,451 | 3,880 | 0.37 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,812 | 4,190 | 0.43 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,914 | 4,190 | 0.46 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,156 | 4,190 | 0.51 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 2,034 | 3,880 | 0.52 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,967 | 3,630 | 0.54 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,990 | 3,630 | 0.55 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,345 | 4,150 | 0.57 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,404 | 4,190 | 0.57 | cancelled |
| COPS | FOX | 2,100 | 3,630 | 0.58 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,458 | 4,190 | 0.59 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,302 | 3,630 | 0.63 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,388 | 3,630 | 0.66 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,506 | 3,630 | 0.69 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,723 | 3,880 | 0.70 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,952 | 4,190 | 0.70 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,964 | 4,190 | 0.71 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,137 | 4,190 | 0.75 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 3,581 | 4,150 | 0.86 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 3,309 | 3,630 | 0.91 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,184 | 4,150 | 1.01 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,062 | 3,880 | 1.05 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,928 | 4,190 | 1.18 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,725 | 3,880 | 1.22 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,891 | 4,150 | 1.42 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 6,182 | 4,190 | 1.48 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 6,142 | 3,880 | 1.58 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,080 | 3,630 | 1.67 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,504 | 1,460 | 1.72 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 9,033 | 3,880 | 2.33 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
No! It’s a nightmare!!!!
PLEASE WATCH PUSHING DAISIES!!! IT CAN’T WATCH ITSELF YOU KNOW!!!
seriously. pushing daisies should never be canceled. one of the most original and beautiful shows on tv these days. Everyone should be watching. If you missed the first season due to the short run/writers strike netflix it and you’ll love it. It is totally worth keeping around. Set your DVRs.
I am on the pushing daisies bandwagon. everybody should be watching pushing daisies it is very escapist. Pushing daisies is like watching a Disney movie and being able to lose yourself for awhile and also perfect to watch with a significant other
Jason, “It can’t watch itself you know” wins my vote for best comment of the day!
oh my goodness. pushing daisies should not be on that list! i know so many people who love this show and look forward to it every week. i know that if i’m having a bad week i always wait until wednesday and things get a little brighter! seriously pushing daisies is the best family show on primetime during the week, and if it is cancelled there will be a lot of unhappy people.
“Other shows like Prison Break and Ugly Betty are improving their standing as well.”
Not to forget T:TSCC – was .75, .79 and now .81. Hope before the 13th episode we can break .92!
PS went from .84, .89 to now .88.
I hope for T:TSCC this is a somewhat hopeful sign.
Well i dont think Chuck should be on the list.its a good show that everyone can enjoy.Also for pushing daisies fans im rooting for you guys also.But chuck and pushing daisies shouldnt be on that list.
Correction:
“Other shows like Prison Break and Ugly Betty are improving their standing as well.”
Not to forget T:TSCC – was .75, .79 and now .81. Hope before the 13th episode we can break .92!
Prison Break went from .84, .89 to now .88.
I hope for T:TSCC this is a somewhat hopeful sign.
Travis – “shouldn’t be on the list!?” All shows that have AIRED already are on this list. Every show!
You don’t WANT those shows to be in the wrong place on this list — but that’s very different than what “should” happen. I love Chuck and I wish its numbers were better and that it was a slam-dunk certainty that it would come back next year. But wishing for a thing doesn’t make it so. The numbers are the numbers.
Joseph, correct you are, many shows are moving up (and/or their network averages are moving down), I didn’t mean the reference to PB and UB to be an all inclusive list.
The fact that the network averages in many cases will trend down is quite important. It doesn’t just make shows “look” more valuable, since all that really matters here is the *relative* performance of shows, it makes them *actually* more valuable.
Besides having been very predictive last year, the 0.92 line (or something close to it) makes sense. You’re not going to cancel your average show (Index of 1.00), but anything that’s more than a little bit below average you’re going to figure you can do better than.
Oops, Survivor snuck into the scripted list.
Fans of Terminator:
Be sure to check out this fan campaign that just started that is trying to get Fox to move the show to Wednesdays after Bones (a much better timeslot):
http://sarahconnorsociety.net/2008/10/12/official-sarah-connor-society-move-tscc-to-wednesdays-campaign/
Jack, Well…do we [i]really[/i] want to say that it’s [i]not[/i] scripted
Oops…I guess html code does work on this site. Sorry.
Holly, it works but it’s real HTML, so you need <> around it rather than [ ] around it…
Thanks!
Jack, thanks for catching that. It snuck back to its correct spot
tscc, lipstick jungle, knight rider no i like these shows!
Oz tv screws us already with different timeslots and cancleing them..
Prison break lost me as a viewer with that sonya prison crap.
im still hurt from the canning of Moonlight!!!
Why is no one talking about LIFE? It is a wonderful show, superb comedy/drama ratio and it is original as well!
The network averages…do they only factor in original episodes, or all episodes, sports matches, and repeats etc from september-may?