The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, to see the latest list, click here.
The fourth week of our Renew/Cancel Index finds the shows most likely to be cancelled for each of the broadcast networks the same as they were last week: Easy Money (CW), Life (NBC), The Ex List (CBS), Pushing Daisies (ABC) and 'Til Death (Fox). Other shows in the greatest danger are NBC's just premiered Crusoe, CBS's The New Adventures of Old Christine, and CBS's Gary Unmarried.
10/24 Update: NBC has announced that Life will move to Wednesday and Lipstick Jungle will move to Friday in late October/early November. This indicates both that Life will be given extra time and that Lipstick Jungle is a dead show walking. The status of both in our list is updated.
On the other hand, because either their own results are improving or their network results are slipping (it doesn't matter which since it's the show's relative performance that matters), several shows moved from the Cancellation in May zone into the Renewal for 2009-10 Likely zone this week including: Chuck, Prison Break, and Ugly Betty. Others getting close to the renewal zone are Knight Rider and Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles, both of which got full season (2008-9) orders from their networks this week.
I'll go on record now as predicting that Pushing Daisies will be this season's Moonlight (which was sort of last season's Jericho) in terms of the volume of fans wailing and moaning about the injustice and conspiracies of the television networks and vowing never to watch ABC again if the show is cancelled. If you're emotionally fragile and a fan of Pushing Daisies, prepare yourself! As far as all those Moonlight fans vowing never to watch CBS again, it seems that even more fans have vowed not to watch the other networks.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season:
- Cancellation by January
- Cancellation by May
- Renewal Likely for 2009-10
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY* | CW | 395 | 1,210 | 0.33 | production halted |
| VALENTINE* | CW | 440 | 1,210 | 0.36 | production halted |
| LIFE** | NBC | 2,028 | 3,500 | 0.58 | moving to Wed |
| CRUSOE** | NBC | 2,145 | 3,500 | 0.61 | 13 ep. mini-series |
| THE EX-LIST** | CBS | 2,586 | 4,180 | 0.62 | pulled from schedule 10/27 |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,290 | 0.64 | cancelled |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,772 | 4,180 | 0.66 | |
| NUMB3RS** | CBS | 2,800 | 4,180 | 0.67 | |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,363 | 3,290 | 0.72 | |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,619 | 3,640 | 0.72 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,050 | 4,180 | 0.73 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,860 | 3,640 | 0.79 | final season |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS** | CW | 951 | 1,210 | 0.79 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,865 | 3,640 | 0.79 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,763 | 3,500 | 0.79 | moving to Friday |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,920 | 3,640 | 0.80 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,365 | 4,180 | 0.81 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER** | CBS | 3,418 | 4,180 | 0.82 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,547 | 4,180 | 0.85 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,618 | 4,180 | 0.87 | |
| THE GAME** | CW | 1,066 | 1,210 | 0.88 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,924 | 3,290 | 0.89 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,133 | 3,500 | 0.90 | |
| RENEWAL LIKELY BELOW THIS LINE | |||||
| Chuck | NBC | 3,279 | 3,500 | 0.94 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,182 | 3,290 | 0.97 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,237 | 4,180 | 1.01 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,693 | 3,640 | 1.01 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,263 | 4,180 | 1.02 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,588 | 3,500 | 1.03 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,255 | 1,210 | 1.04 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,867 | 3,640 | 1.06 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,795 | 3,500 | 1.08 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 4,000 | 3,640 | 1.10 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,649 | 4,180 | 1.11 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,909 | 3,500 | 1.12 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,674 | 4,180 | 1.12 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 4,085 | 3,640 | 1.12 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,823 | 4,180 | 1.15 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,183 | 4,180 | 1.24 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,225 | 3,290 | 1.28 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,429 | 4,180 | 1.30 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,396 | 3,290 | 1.34 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,744 | 3,500 | 1.36 | final season |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,675 | 4,180 | 1.36 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,471 | 3,290 | 1.36 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,806 | 4,180 | 1.39 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 5,064 | 3,640 | 1.39 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,950 | 3,500 | 1.41 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,839 | 1,210 | 1.52 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,277 | 3,290 | 1.60 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,746 | 4,180 | 1.61 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,315 | 3,290 | 1.62 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 6,044 | 3,500 | 1.73 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,113 | 1,210 | 1.75 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,219 | 3,500 | 1.78 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,895 | 3,290 | 1.79 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,221 | 1,210 | 1.84 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,247 | 1,210 | 1.86 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,342 | 3,290 | 1.93 | |
| CSI | CBS | 8,147 | 4,180 | 1.95 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,373 | 1,210 | 1.96 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 8,102 | 3,640 | 2.23 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,705 | 3,640 | 2.39 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
*CW MRC Sunday - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). The two scripted shows have now had their production halted, but are still airing their completed episodes. Althought, we've been told and Mediaweek has reported that these shows are contractually in for a minimum of a 13 week run regardless, we think their dreadful results may cause that to change. And MRC's President just resigned. Coincidence?
**Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY* | CW | 370 | 1,210 | 0.31 | |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,452 | 3,500 | 0.41 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,913 | 3,640 | 0.53 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,206 | 4,180 | 0.53 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,977 | 3,640 | 0.54 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 2,038 | 3,500 | 0.58 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,952 | 3,290 | 0.59 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 3,640 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,991 | 3,290 | 0.61 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,228 | 3,640 | 0.61 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,087 | 3,290 | 0.63 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,183 | 3,290 | 0.66 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,511 | 3,640 | 0.69 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,388 | 3,290 | 0.73 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,634 | 3,500 | 0.75 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,479 | 3,290 | 0.75 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,874 | 3,640 | 0.79 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-7P | ABC | 2,952 | 3,640 | 0.81 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 2,999 | 3,640 | 0.82 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 3,788 | 4,180 | 0.91 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 3,052 | 3,290 | 0.93 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,161 | 4,180 | 1.00 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,074 | 3,500 | 1.16 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,626 | 3,640 | 1.27 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,511 | 3,500 | 1.29 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 4,967 | 3,640 | 1.36 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,825 | 4,180 | 1.39 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,772 | 3,500 | 1.65 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 6,017 | 3,640 | 1.65 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,080 | 3,290 | 1.85 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,441 | 1,210 | 2.02 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,517 | 3,500 | 2.43 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved.
I think Crusoe might be a miniseries, but I’m not sure. That’s how it was promoted on NBC at least. If it is then it probably shouldn’t be here anyway, since it will end in a few months anyway.
“The New Adventures of Old Christine” has a full 22 episode order for this season, so it likely to be on the air (albeit with some interruptions for try-out series) through May 2009 at least.
ONE QUICK QUESTION…HOW DID TERMINATOR:SCC GO MORE TOWARDS THE RENEWAL LIKELY COLUMN WHEN THE RATINGS DECREASED?
JP, it’s because FOX’s S-T-D numbers have gone down. So T:SCC looks better in relation to that. Go baseball!
Great news for Terminator. Just hope being off and on because of the baseball doesn’t hurt it further.
When AI arrives SCC and PB will drop deep into cancelation zone
Go Chuck & Prison Break:D
I disagree with the fact that Old Christine will be canceled before midseason. I know the numbers and demographics aren’t great, but it has been a very serious competitor for winning its timeslot every airing. I don’t know what more CBS could ask for… no other comedy they put in that spot would do any better, with the exception of Two and a Half Men, but that is out of the question. I could see Gary Unmarried being canceled before Old Christine. Old Christine has a dedicated following and critic and Emmy voters approval.
I guess we will have to wait it out a see.
Dave, Bill either has his head up his butt when it comes to Old Christine or simply needs to do more disclaiming via the prose.
Despite the numbers in the index, I’d predict Christine is safer than Worst Week. The question is only how patient will CBS be in trying to build the additional comedy block on Wednesdays. I’m guessing they’ll give it at least a month after daylight savings time ends to see whether that improves things. But that’s pure speculation on my part. This is the same network that has given the Katie Couric experiment a year longer than most pundits predicted, so they may stick with the Wednesday block a good long while regardless of the numbers.
color coding on Christine is wrong I will fix when back from lunch
or…the color coding was wrong
P.S. I updated the color…
bill i love your site, check it everyday and my favoirte show is Christine and for the longest time you have been saying it is down and out i am sick of it i think cbs will be very patient with the new comedy block ( evrn though gary unmaried sucks) and even if the comedy hour dose get the boot wont cbs cancel worst week befor christine ssince its getting 9 million viewers form a two and a half men 14million lead in and christine gets none?? come on!!
Boy, I learned not to post this and then leave for lunch
1. Thanks to Robert for fixing the color on Christine. It’s definitely good for an entire 2008-9 season, its reckoning will come in May. On the Worst Week / Christine comparison, I agree somewhat, but I think it could go the other way. I think that if the season ended today with the current list, not only would Christine not get renewed, but Worst Week might be one of the handful of outliers in the safe zone that don’t get renewed (ala, Big Shots).
2. Bob, you are correct that American Idol ratings completely skew all of Fox’s 18-49 numbers. That’s why in coming up with the Index last season I experimented and used Fox’s last 18-49 average *before* Idol instead of Fox’s season final STD. That allowed Fox shows to be measured pretty much on the same scale as the other networks. The reasoning was in the original post, but I should add it above and will. I will do the same thing in calculating this list this season, so the arrival of American Idol will have no effect on the Fox 18-49 average used for this calculation.
pushing daisies movied into the .70s we are getting there slowly hopefully these next two weeks are going to be good to us
Not sure if anyone noticed the top post, but Crusoe may be a miniseries, so it shouldn’t be here.
This isn’t official, but the site says its a miniseries.
http://blogs.mcall.com/tvwatchers/2008/10/nbcs-crusoe-jus.html
Rob, if only Pushing Daisies were going up due to its own strength, not ABC’s tanking numbers.
sean, I’ve never seen Crusoe designated as a miniseries anywhere else.
Rob, and everybody else, one way I think about the process is that the networks each have a stable of shows ready to go at mid-season. In some cases, the openings for those mid-season shows are planned (like Sunday Night Football ending for NBC).
In other cases, my guess is that each network will decide that some number (and that number is not zero) of their lowest performing shows are going to get cancelled and replaced. If that is the case, then the fact that Pushing Daisies is ABC’s worst performing scripted show means it’s #1 on ABC’s list to go. Unless it moves past Eli Stone (which is certainly possible).
At the risk of sounding “emotionally fragile”, I’m in fact very dismayed that a creative, fun, and original show like Pushing Daisies has been brought the brink of cancellation while many millions of people watch the instantly forgettable Dancing With The Stars, Knight Rider, and Samantha Who? But, of course, networks are in the business of giving audiences what they want. Daisies is a delicious, fancy confection- and most people clearly prefer their microwave fish sticks and Diet Coke.
At least NBC has the wisdom to stand behind the struggling 30 Rock (which had lower ratings than Daisies last season), and I’m hoping that the Rock finally achieves mainstream success this year. And if Daisies were on cable it would probably do just fine, since their lowest ratings are considerably higher than either Mad Men or Dexter- both fine shows.
yea I thought it was a full show too but during the premiere they kept saying it was a 13 episode miniseries, but i can’t find that anywhere else online either so who knows.
Julia i agree. but up is up and i’ll live with a show living due to nefarious means. But the total viewership has gone up even though the demos are only up slightly.