The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after November 4, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
Readers have heard plenty about the grim prospects for Pushing Daisies, but fans of Dirty Sexy Money and Eli Stone should start worrying in earnest. They've both dropped into the extreme danger zone of our Renew / Cancel Index.
The fifth week of our Renew/Cancel Index shows that the list order can still change quickly this early in the season. The World Series boosted Fox's Season to Date adults 18-49 average by over 500,000 (although a lot less than it did last year!). Temporarily, it makes all Fox's other shows look worse in our Index. Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles and Prison Break and others *look* like they just took a big tumble, but fans should not jump to conclusions based on this baseball induced distortion. Give Fox's 18-49 average some time to recover back to the mean and then you may begin your worrying again, or not.
Also in the past week, CBS pulled The Ex List from its schedule, tantamount to it being cancelled. Watchers of the Index were not surprised.
NBC announced a move of Life to Wednesday. That's a sign it's being given a chance. I originally thought the move made it immune from mid-season cancellation, but now I want to wait and see its Wednesday numbers before thinking it will stick around for a whole season. Lipstick Jungle will move to Friday. It's being given up for dead. Both have been in the Index's danger zone from their premiere.
CW's Privileged slipped into the danger zone, and is moving in the wrong direction, but the carnage on Friday and Sunday for the network could cut its other shows a lot of slack this season.
The New Adventures of Old Christine seems to be making a small move for the good, but it's got a long way to go to safety. Update: I am chided on a weekly basis for not disclaiming the situation for Christine in the Index. Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
Update: In response to astute commenter Lulla: Plenty can change before the end of the season. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. Also, the renewal line last season was 0.92. Could it be 0.86 this season? Possibly. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
10/30 Update: Fox has pulled 'Til Death from its lineup for a minimum of two weeks. I have changed its status to Cancellation in January because of the news even though it reportedly has an order for a full season of shows.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 (000) | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY* | CW | 374 | 1,380 | 0.27 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE* | CW | 434 | 1,380 | 0.31 | cancelled |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,830 | 0.55 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE** | NBC | 1,996 | 3,610 | 0.55 | 13 ep. mini-series |
| LIFE** | NBC | 2,037 | 3,610 | 0.56 | moving to Wed |
| THE EX LIST** | CBS | 2,443 | 4,120 | 0.59 | pulled from schedule |
| TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,830 | 0.62 | pulled from schedule |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,606 | 4,040 | 0.65 | |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS** | CW | 923 | 1,380 | 0.67 | |
| NUMB3RS** | CBS | 2,842 | 4,120 | 0.69 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,797 | 4,040 | 0.69 | |
| NEW ADVS OF OLD CHRISTINE | CBS | 2,861 | 4,120 | 0.69 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,812 | 4,040 | 0.70 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,836 | 4,040 | 0.70 | final 13 ep. season |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE | NBC | 2,639 | 3,610 | 0.73 | moving to Fri |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,876 | 3,830 | 0.75 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,100 | 4,120 | 0.75 | |
| THE GAME** | CW | 1,044 | 1,380 | 0.76 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,357 | 4,120 | 0.81 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,155 | 3,830 | 0.82 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER** | CBS | 3,431 | 4,120 | 0.83 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,083 | 3,610 | 0.85 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,530 | 4,120 | 0.86 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,618 | 4,120 | 0.88 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,212 | 1,380 | 0.88 | |
| RENEWAL LIKELY BELOW THIS LINE | |||||
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,705 | 4,040 | 0.92 | |
| Chuck | NBC | 3,320 | 3,610 | 0.92 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,775 | 4,040 | 0.93 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,786 | 4,040 | 0.94 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,503 | 3,610 | 0.97 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,924 | 4,040 | 0.97 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,554 | 3,610 | 0.98 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,578 | 3,610 | 0.99 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,180 | 4,120 | 1.01 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,242 | 4,120 | 1.03 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,225 | 3,830 | 1.10 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,614 | 4,120 | 1.12 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,666 | 4,120 | 1.13 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,396 | 3,830 | 1.15 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,471 | 3,830 | 1.17 | not renewed, final show in 2009-10 season |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,818 | 4,120 | 1.17 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,950 | 4,040 | 1.23 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,199 | 4,120 | 1.26 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,614 | 3,610 | 1.28 | final season |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,345 | 4,120 | 1.30 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,815 | 1,380 | 1.32 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,863 | 3,610 | 1.35 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,623 | 4,120 | 1.36 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,658 | 4,120 | 1.37 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,277 | 3,830 | 1.38 | |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,293 | 3,830 | 1.38 | |
| Gossip Girl-MON | CW | 2,087 | 1,380 | 1.51 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 5,895 | 3,830 | 1.54 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,198 | 1,380 | 1.59 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,219 | 1,380 | 1.61 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,741 | 4,120 | 1.64 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,909 | 3,610 | 1.64 | |
| One Tree Hill-MON | CW | 2,290 | 1,380 | 1.66 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,074 | 3,610 | 1.68 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,517 | 3,830 | 1.70 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,861 | 4,120 | 1.91 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 8,010 | 4,040 | 1.98 | |
| GREY'S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,412 | 4,040 | 2.08 |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
*CW MRC Sunday - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). Easy Money and Valentine have been cancelled. It is reported that MRC has the right (obligation?) to program Sunday nights throughout 2008-9 on the CW. What will they do next? Stay tuned.
**Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM'S WAY* | CW | 371 | 1,380 | 0.27 | |
| AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,610 | 0.40 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,908 | 4,040 | 0.47 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 1,982 | 4,040 | 0.49 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,031 | 4,120 | 0.49 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,912 | 3,830 | 0.50 | |
| DON'T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 2,024 | 3,830 | 0.53 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,040 | 0.54 | cancelled |
| COPS | FOX | 2,087 | 3,830 | 0.54 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,214 | 4,040 | 0.55 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI** | NBC | 2,004 | 3,610 | 0.56 | |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,183 | 3,830 | 0.57 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,388 | 3,830 | 0.62 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,567 | 4,040 | 0.64 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,480 | 3,830 | 0.65 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,444 | 3,610 | 0.68 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,532 | 3,610 | 0.70 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,974 | 4,040 | 0.74 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 3,052 | 3,830 | 0.80 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,229 | 4,040 | 0.80 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 3,609 | 4,120 | 0.88 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,133 | 4,120 | 1.00 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,458 | 1,380 | 1.06 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,045 | 3,610 | 1.12 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,770 | 4,040 | 1.18 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 5,009 | 4,040 | 1.24 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,511 | 3,610 | 1.25 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,816 | 4,120 | 1.41 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,917 | 4,040 | 1.46 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,772 | 3,610 | 1.60 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,207 | 3,830 | 1.62 | |
| AMERICA'S Top Model-5 | CW | 2,486 | 1,380 | 1.80 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,517 | 3,610 | 2.36 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
Wow first post, and i don’t even live in the states. When criminal intent was on nbc was it doing bad compared to their average?
Nice to see New Christine creeping along. It really is one of the better sitcoms on TV. I predict (hopeful) that CBS will keep it around. If it completes all 22 episodes this season, then it’s pretty close to having a sufficient number of episodes for syndication, which may be worth the investment in another 13 for next season. Second, it is not like anything can be considered a hit on Wed in the 8-9pm slot. Bones is the only show above the renew threshold. Sadly, I think Pushing Daisies is just too creative and well written to be liked by the masses.
Ben: L&O: CI had a .72 when it aired on NBC. you can see last season’s end of year wrap-up here:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/27/the-renewcancel-index-our-predictor-of-show-futures/4800
once again placing doubt in Old Christine i can tell you wish the show to be canceled for some reason its doing very well for itself 8 million viewers with no lead in?? and the other monday night comedies on cbs lose alot of there 2 and a half lead in (worst week loses almost 5 million vieres from a 14 million lead in) i am positive christine will survive……….and why is my own worst enemy not in the cancelation zone it dose horrible
Sam, Bill is not always a big picture guy and sometimes he sinks into the abyss of just looking at the numbers. Given his refusal to write anything as a disclaimer about what CBS is trying to do with the Wednesday comedy block he really might have it in for Old Christine! I think it more likely he is just being a purist with the numbers,grits his teeth, shakes his head and thinks “but the numbers are the numbers!”
Personally I think it’s just as likely that Christine (and perhaps Gary Unmarried) sticks around as Worst Week, despite their relative positions in the index.
p.s. as for MOWE, it’s a function of two things: bad performance overall for NBC in the 18-49 demo, and that though its overall numbers have stunk (and the above index doesn’t include last night’s number, which eroded even more), it has performed relatively better in the demos.
So what happens with Life now that it’s being moved? Are the two timeslots judged separately?
Julia, that’s a very good question. My understanding may be totally off base, but here it is: from an S-T-D perspective, any show airing in its scheduled time slot counts unless it is designated “special”. I’m not sure that the Life episodes that aired on Mondays were counted (they were definitely designated “special”). My thinking is that the Wednesday and Friday epsisodes should be mashed together for S-T-D averaging since both will have been the regular timeslot.
Whether that’s what Nielsen actually does, I dunno. We’ll see when we get the results for 11/3-11/9
Oh goodness!!!!! T:SCC is in danger of being cancelled! i hope they dont and they need to realize that it is a great show and is really interesting!!! Also Next year have it at the 9oclock timeslot and have a good leadin!!!
Do you know why the CW’s average went up 170,000 viewers when every show went down except for One Tree Hill? The only things I can think of would be better repeat numbers or a huge increase for ANTM. If the second reason is the case, maybe you should consider calculating the averages for each network without unscripted shows included, like you do for FOX without American Idol, because if not the scripted show’s index numbers dropped lower than they should have.
Julia, based on what they’ve done before, Nielsen will likely report the S-T-D numbers for each of those Life [and Lipstick Jungle] day/time slots separately. I will show them both and annotate them somehow. I think you’ll need to see both results to compare.
Nielsen does report non-standard timeslot airings in its S-T-D numbers if the network didn’t designate that airing as a special (which is nearly a distinction without meaning except for the S-T-D averages). Those are pretty few in number, and I have stripped them out of the list above, since they are usually just a single show.
Eli Stone is fine. ABC wantsa lawyer show, the ratings are decent (good for this year) and there are no huge stars.
sean, America’s Top Model was up and Stylista premiered with 18-49 numbers above the previous CW average. They also contributed to the average boosting. Non-scripted shows are in the separate list because they seemed to be treated differently in renewal/cancellation decisions, but their numbers contribute to the network averages.
Dear Bill:
There is some justice now for all the “Moonlight Fans” that “The Ex-List” has been taken off the CBS Schedule. True Blood is just awful I tried to watch the first 5 minutes…no comparision to Moonlight-puts Moonlight to shame.
But “Moonlight” will be out in DVD in January-Moonlight Fans would love it to be sooner.
I wish Nina had listened to the Moonlight Fan Base-obviously we knew more than she did.
We hope to see a movie out of “Moonlight” possibly…anything can happen.
I still miss my Friday nights without “Moonlight.” Now I watch FOX NEWS throughout the day and mostly evenings with exception of NCIS and CSI.
Sometimes you never know what you really lost until it is gone. You would think that between the loss of “Jericho” twice and then “Moonlight” how many times does the CBS Entertainment Group ever learn their lesson.
Thanks for all your TV news always appreciated.
Thanks for keeping us informed.
Best,
Lynn M. Rogers
Lynne, and anyone else, Moonlight was CBS’s worst performing show in the 18-49 demo. It deserved to be cancelled. The Ex-List was CBS’s worst performing show in the 18-49 demo. It deserved to be cancelled.
CBS has done better than any of the other networks this season on both an absolute basis and on a relative basis vs. last season. Ascribe that to luck if you’d like, but I prefer to take the results at face value.
David4, unless you’re talking to someone significant inside the Mouse, why would you say that? Eli Stone was a borderline cancel show last year. I doubt it gets much slack this year.
ABC has quite a few shows ready to go at mid-season. My guess is they’re going to clean house in January.
I have placed a disclaimer in the text above for all those New Adventures of Old Christine fans who were potential coronary victims. Keep your heart rates down.
DSM is doing exactly what is expected. It is doing very well in foreign markets and is picking up steam 18-34 and 18-49 women. Simply KILLING LG. Cheaper to keep her Bill.
Your guess about cleaning house may be correct but your timeline is off a couple months
Just a hypothetical question, but what would happen if, say, all the networks suddenly started airing all their shows 5-10 minutes late for no reason? Would the FCC do anything? That’s what’s happening here in Australia, and nothing is being done about it. **cough** torrents **cough**
Ben, if they did so without announcing, there would be a lot of pissed off DVR users
Bill, I know it’s not as easy to asterisk as say Friday nights, but the issue with Christine, Gary Unmarried and Worst Week is quite interesting. I think there is a case to be made that Worst Week is in more peril (even if CBS sticks out Wednesdays) despite the index. Last year Rules and Christine were not the weakest demo link in the 9:30 Monday spot — they both outperformed TBB and HIMYM in the demo. Worst Week isn’t doing that and the odds that CBS doesn’t look at that are about as good as Greg Oden making it through a full season (or even one game) without getting hurt.
The one thing with Wednesdays that is a surprise to me is that one very good reason to have another comedy block is the lucrative nature of the 30 minute comedies in syndication. But none of the those three shows is produced by CPT. Christine has the closest “blood ties” being Warner Brothers produced. Christine is around halfway to 100 episodes.