The New York Times has a good article on how CBS is winning younger viewers back and how their stable of procedurals where "The Good Guys" win, comedies and giving people "what they want" is "comfort food" in a bad economy. I found the whole article interesting, but this resonated with me:
That has led to some speculation that the networks may move away from serialized shows in the DVR era, both because viewers may increasingly store episodes of serialized shows to watch them in 8-to-10 episode bursts, and because the shows have no repeat value at all.
At least one network other than CBS is starting to conclude the same thing about program trends. "This fall, we're trying to build a spine of shows we can rely on," said Kevin Reilly, the president of Fox Entertainment. Among them: the emerging hit "Bones," a crime drama that solves its cases every week and repeats relatively well.
Sounds right to me.
There has been some discussion in the comments here about Fox moving American Idol to Wednesdays and Thursdays. I'm on record that I don't see it happening. But I'm in the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" camp. But the article pours a little gasoline on the speculative fires:
While its fall numbers are down, no one doubts Fox's overall strength, not with "American Idol" ready to come back, along with the drama "24." Mr. Reilly may be putting some extra fear in his rivals by floating the idea that Fox may do something different with "Idol" this time around - as in move one of two weekly editions to a regular slot on Thursday nights, the most lucrative night for advertising.
Robert, the key here is money. If FOX can make more money with advertising using a Wednesday/Thursday lineup then it is in their best interest to do it. FOX has an interesting problem, BONES has done better than they expected after the move to Wednesday.
A DOLLHOUSE/24 Monday and a HOUSE/FRINGE Tuesday with American Idol/BONES and a Thursday with AMERICAN IDOL following one of their new comedies with TERMINATOR following it… that is where the weak point comes to play. It’s hard to figure out what they could team American Idol up with on Thursday to make it a night for other networks to fear.
exactly so. but if they average many less viewers they will make less money. On the other hand if they can crush Ugly Betty and Survivor it will make Fox feel better
But if it merely waters down all three…
Eventually the viewers might get burned out on procedurals and something else will be tried. Even if the procedurals still ride high…not every one of those types of shows will make it. Anyone remember ‘Shark.’
The TV cycle now favors shows that are self-contained, but the serialized is far from dead. Its just too many of them can spoil a basket. The same thing will happen to procedurals if too many are in place. CBS is riding high with them and NBC, ABC, and FOX have shows of their own as well. The one mistake that the competition will make is that they will think they will get a piece of CBS if they do the same thing that CBS does.
A Thursday night Idol airing??? Can’t wait to see this. At least FOX is building on House and Bones.
I can buy into part of this, about repeatability and re-runs. A show like CSI, anybody can jump into at any time. I can watch a repeat on cable and it’s all self-contained. But as for procedurals in general, it only works for certain kinds of shows.
A show like Chuck is an interesting example, because they can make wonderful self-contained episodes (like the most recent two, about the high school reunion and Missile Command) that still in a minor way contribute to a longer arc, but then occasionally they throw in a small story arc where watching all are essential (such as the upcoming sweeps three-parter). I think this is part of the reason NBC loves the show, because it’s so versatile.
On the other hand…a show like Terminator, I think benefited immensely last year from the continuing story aspect of it. I think the “Previously on Terminator” by the last episode spanned clips from the entire season. This season, FOX pushed for more procedural self-contained episodes, and as a result fans have been a bit unhappy. This type of show is suited for a long arc, the self-contained shows end up becoming Terminator of the week things that don’t seem to make sense in the overall plan to stop Skynet.
I also find it funny how in the very article talking about self-contained shows, they mention how FOX is ready to kick ass with 24 come the Spring. I mean is there any other show in the history of shows that requires you to watch the entire season like 24 does? And I don’t think this has stunted DVD sales or repeat watching either.
Frank, having watched all six seasons of 24, I think it’s much, much more self-contained than TSCC. “Previously on 24″ gets you about as caught up as you need to be. TSCC, Heroes, Lost — you can’t really jump into it as well without having watched the prior episodes.
While I think you are right about Chuck, the base of viewers (based on the numbers) seems to be treating it as a serial rather than a procedural.
I find that what I’m missing this viewing season is that “can’t wait to see what happens next week” feeling. I can leave my shows on the DVR and watch when I have some spare time. Right now the only one I look forward to is Supernatural which has become a bit more serialized this season. In fact, it is the only one I watch live. I’m sure that will change when Lost and 24 are back on the schedule. Based on my own viewing habits, I would say that reducing the serialized nature of shows would reduce the need to watch them right away. Thus increasing DVR usage. You won’t have to worry about spoilers.
Kathy, I’m with you based on my own viewing, though I may look forward to a few more shows.
But with 70%+ of the homes currently lacking DVR, I suppose that we can let them pile up on the DVR without caring is offest by the ability to more easily draw in the masses of viewers who still watch programming on the networks’ time tables rather than their own.
is FOX planning an 8pm or 9pm start for Idol on thursdays? 8pm would work, they would crush survivor, and all other 8pm competition. 9pm would be much more difficult. Idol’s ratings were already down last year, imagine if they put it up against the most competitive hour on television! If i were FOX 8pm would be my move.
I just wonder how much longer that “american idol” show will be popular. Perhaps moving it to compete against CSI and Gray’s Anatomy is a way for FOX to have a reason ready for when the bottom finally falls out on that show. Personally I have never seen “american idol” because the idea of watching teens singing has never appealed to me.
Correct me if I’m wrong on this, but hasn’t Idol aired on Thursdays the past couple seasons for 3-4 weeks during February sweeps?? It airs 3 times a week, Tue-Thu @ 8, they do the guys on one night, girls the next, then the eliminations on Thursday until they get to the top 10 or 12 or whatever it is and then it doesn’t air on Thursdays the rest of the season, just Tue/Wed.
What I’m getting at is that if I’m remembering this correctly FOX already has past data to look at to see how they would do. From what I recall the Thursday Idol episodes got the lowest ratings out of the 3 nights, but still easily beat the competition at least in the demos. Plus they still have the same competition on the other major networks, (Survivor, NBC comedies, Ugly Betty, Smallville) so there shouldn’t be any reason to think the show would perform dramatically differently on Thursday night, if anything a permanent slot there should boost ratings towards the end of the season as they get closer to announcing the winner. The problem would still be the 9pm slot, its much more competitive than the 8pm slot in my opinion. So whatever they aired there would likely still struggle to some degree and airing Idol at 9 would likely hurt Idol too much and wouldn’t really help a show airing at 8.
An interesting thing FOX could do would be to switch Idol to primarily Wed/Thu and move House to 9 on Thursdays since I believe that is still their top scripted show. It already has a solid fan base, usually does better airing after Idol and probably would be able to hold up well against CSI,Grey’s,Office/30 Rock, Supernatural. But then they’d have to change up Tuesdays, so I don’t know if they’d actually do an Idol/House Thursday.
I think the chatter about changing Idol’s scheduling is a head fake from Fox just to screw with the competition.
Craig, you’re right. At least last year Fox definitely ran three consecutive Thursday airings a month or so in, beginning around Feb 21. But I’m not sure what those numbers mean as it wasn’t really up against any new competition on the other nets due to the writer’s strike. I think all doing what you suggest with the Wednesday/Thursday moves is watering down Fox’s best shows. House can dominate against NCIS in the demos, but it would not likely be nearly as dominate in those demos against Greys and The Office and CSI. It would certainly be more competitive on Thursday night, but at the expense of very watered down demos, especially at 9pm.
I agree w/Bill…
In my opinion the best to FOX is get stronger from sunday to wednesday in this season, and atack thursday nights in the next season
January
Sunday
7pm king of the hill (final episodes)
7:30pm american dad (final episodes)
8pm the simpsons
8:30pm Family Guy
9pm 24 (two hours premiere)
Monday
8pm american idol
9pm Dollhouse
Tuesday
8pm american idol
9pm Fringe
Wednesday
8pm Bones
9pm House
Thursday
8pm repeats (Bones)
9pm repeats (House)
mid-february to may
Sunday
8pm Family Guy
8:30pm The Cleveland show
9pm 24
Monday
8pm american idol >>> prison break >>> terminator
9pm Dollhouse
Tuesday
8pm american idol
9pm Fringe
Wednesday
8pm AMerican Idol
08:30pm The Simpsons
9pm House
Thursday
8pm Bones
9pm …
I still think at some point FOX needs to bite the bullet and start running programming for the 10-11/9-10 slot.
Nick C, why?
Plus, it will never happen. Those hours are probably the local affiliates most profitable of the week.