The Renew or Cancel Index is updated on a weekly basis, if you're reading this after November 11, 2008 click here to see the latest list.
11/13 Update: Some of the 18-49 Network averages originally used in the calculations were incorrect, they have been fixed.
It's getting to be that time of the season when TV networks announce their mid-season January schedules. Don't look for Lipstick Jungle, Pushing Daisies, Eli Stone or Dirty Sexy Money to be on them. Add to those 4 shows *maybe* Life (completely dependent on its future Wednesday results) and You have the 4 or 5 additional shows waiting to get cancelled by mid-season. I think every other show survives past January.
11/6 Update: Life's first broadcast on Wednesday night at 9pm was inconclusive.
11/7 Update: NBC didn't think it was inconclusive and has ordered a full season of Life. I have changed its color code to "Cancel in May".
Recapping last weeks show news: 'Til Death was pulled from the Fox lineup. King of the Hill wasn't renewed by Fox, but there are shows enough to last until sometime in the 2009-10 season. Folks wondered how it could be in the "renewal" zone. It's likely that some non-economic event/terms trumped the advertising revenue implied by its ratings.
Lipstick Jungle moved to Friday, predictably crashed, and the smoking ruin will be swept away soon enough. It still remains to be seen how Life's move to Wednesday goes. It's definitely not out of the woods yet. Unfortunately, Nielsen doesn't seem to be breaking down the season to date numbers for the different day/timeslots. I'll do my best to calculate the Wednesday average for Life separately starting next week.
Kath & Kim was given an order filling its first season of shows. Some fans were surprised that could happen, but shouldn't be. It's an *average* scripted show for NBC, and nobody cancels their average shows.
The Indexes for Fox shows continue to be distorted downward by the World Series which has temporarily boosted Fox's 18-49 average, but that will sort itself out over the coming weeks. No need to panic *yet* for Fox shows with scary low numbers.
I seem to write this every week in the comments, so let me include it up top from now on. Except for the shows in the most danger (at the top of the list), plenty can change before the end of the season. The list is presented in a (and has to be, since I cannot predict future ratings) “what would happen if the season ended today” mode. The renewal line last season was 0.92. Could it be 0.86 this season? Possibly. It might also be 0.95. Might it be 0.70? No chance.
While the Renew / Cancel index is most geared toward predicting potential renewal for *next* season, my color coding of the shows are guesses on what might happen this season: Cancellation by January, Cancellation by May, or Renewal Likely for 2009-10.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| EASY MONEY (1) | CW | 342 | 1,380 | 0.25 | cancelled |
| VALENTINE (1) | CW | 405 | 1,380 | 0.29 | cancelled |
| CRUSOE (2) | NBC | 1,758 | 3,620 | 0.49 | 13 ep. mini series |
| DO NOT DISTURB | FOX | 2,097 | 3,940 | 0.53 | cancelled |
| LIFE (2) | NBC | 2,043 | 3,620 | 0.56 | moved to Wed |
| ‘TIL DEATH | FOX | 2,364 | 3,940 | 0.60 | off schedule |
| THE EX LIST (2) | CBS | 2,443 | 4,050 | 0.60 | cancelled |
| EVERYBODY HATES CHRIS (2) | CW | 881 | 1,380 | 0.64 | |
| LIPSTICK JUNGLE (2) | NBC | 2,365 | 3,620 | 0.65 | moved to Fri |
| PUSHING DAISIES | ABC | 2,686 | 4,050 | 0.66 | |
| ELI STONE | ABC | 2,701 | 4,050 | 0.67 | |
| DIRTY SEXY MONEY | ABC | 2,761 | 4,050 | 0.68 | |
| BOSTON LEGAL | ABC | 2,830 | 4,050 | 0.70 | final 13 ep. season |
| NUMB3RS (2) | CBS | 2,878 | 4,050 | 0.71 | |
| THE NEW ADVS OLD CHRISTINE (3) | CBS | 2,883 | 4,050 | 0.71 | |
| THE GAME (2) | CW | 992 | 1,380 | 0.72 | |
| TERMINATOR: SARAH CONNOR CHRONICLES | FOX | 2,876 | 3,940 | 0.73 | |
| GARY UNMARRIED | CBS | 3,101 | 4,050 | 0.77 | |
| PRISON BREAK | FOX | 3,155 | 3,940 | 0.80 | |
| THE UNIT | CBS | 3,296 | 4,050 | 0.81 | |
| GHOST WHISPERER (2) | CBS | 3,326 | 4,050 | 0.82 | |
| KNIGHT RIDER | NBC | 3,084 | 3,620 | 0.85 | |
| PRIVILEGED | CW | 1,216 | 1,380 | 0.88 | |
| WITHOUT A TRACE | CBS | 3,591 | 4,050 | 0.89 | |
| COLD CASE | CBS | 3,592 | 4,050 | 0.89 | |
| UGLY BETTY | ABC | 3,655 | 4,050 | 0.90 | |
| LIFE ON MARS | ABC | 3,691 | 4,050 | 0.91 | |
| LAST SEASON, SHOWS BELOW THIS LINE WERE RENEWED | |||||
| Chuck | NBC | 3,338 | 3,620 | 0.92 | |
| SAMANTHA WHO? | ABC | 3,752 | 4,050 | 0.93 | |
| MY OWN WORST ENEMY | NBC | 3,411 | 3,620 | 0.94 | |
| KATH & KIM | NBC | 3,411 | 3,620 | 0.94 | |
| Private Practice | ABC | 3,913 | 4,050 | 0.97 | |
| MY NAME IS EARL | NBC | 3,514 | 3,620 | 0.97 | |
| ELEVENTH HOUR | CBS | 4,072 | 4,050 | 1.01 | |
| WORST WEEK | CBS | 4,243 | 4,050 | 1.05 | |
| Bones | FOX | 4,225 | 3,940 | 1.07 | |
| The Big Bang Theory | CBS | 4,562 | 4,050 | 1.13 | |
| American Dad | FOX | 4,499 | 3,940 | 1.14 | |
| THE Mentalist | CBS | 4,717 | 4,050 | 1.16 | |
| NCIS | CBS | 4,772 | 4,050 | 1.18 | |
| BROTHERS & Sisters | ABC | 4,868 | 4,050 | 1.20 | |
| KING OF THE HILL | FOX | 4,747 | 3,940 | 1.20 | not renewed |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 3 | NBC | 4,451 | 3,620 | 1.23 | |
| How I Met Your Mother | CBS | 5,004 | 4,050 | 1.24 | |
| E.R. | NBC | 4,592 | 3,620 | 1.27 | final season |
| FRINGE | FOX | 5,002 | 3,940 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: NY | CBS | 5,159 | 4,050 | 1.27 | |
| CSI: MIAMI | CBS | 5,368 | 4,050 | 1.33 | |
| Law And Order:SVU | NBC | 4,815 | 3,620 | 1.33 | |
| Criminal Minds | CBS | 5,409 | 4,050 | 1.34 | |
| SUPERNATURAL | CW | 1,844 | 1,380 | 1.34 | |
| 30 Rock | NBC | 5,458 | 3,620 | 1.51 | |
| Gossip Girl | CW | 2,083 | 1,380 | 1.51 | |
| Simpsons | FOX | 5,998 | 3,940 | 1.52 | |
| Family Guy | FOX | 6,092 | 3,940 | 1.55 | |
| 90210 | CW | 2,189 | 1,380 | 1.59 | |
| Two and a Half Men | CBS | 6,461 | 4,050 | 1.60 | |
| HEROES | NBC | 5,804 | 3,620 | 1.60 | |
| Smallville | CW | 2,233 | 1,380 | 1.62 | |
| One Tree Hill | CW | 2,281 | 1,380 | 1.65 | |
| HOUSE | FOX | 6,612 | 3,940 | 1.68 | |
| OFFICE | NBC | 6,129 | 3,620 | 1.69 | |
| CSI | CBS | 7,491 | 4,050 | 1.85 | |
| Desperate Housewives | ABC | 7,949 | 4,050 | 1.96 | |
| GREY’S ANATOMY | ABC | 8,278 | 4,050 | 2.04 | |
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The Renew/Cancel Index is a show's Season To Date adults 18-49 viewership divided by its networks Season to Date average 18-49 viewership. Note: Only shows that have premiered during the 2008-9 broadcast season are on this list.
(1) CW MRC Sunday - The CW has leased its entire Sunday night to Media Rights Capital (MRC). Easy Money and Valentine have been cancelled. It is reported that MRC has the right (obligation?) to program Sunday nights throughout 2008-9 on the CW. What will they do next? Stay tuned.
(2) Friday night - Friday is quickly becoming an 18-49 wasteland, so these shows may be allowed a lower threshold for success than shows on other nights. My grading technique on shows with histories on Friday (only Numb3rs and Ghost Whisperer) is that until they reach their Index values from last season they still are at risk of non-renewal.
(3) New Advs of Old Christine: Perhaps CBS is willing to accept low numbers in its new timeslot indefinitely to build a new "comedy block". Perhaps CBS will return Christine to the warmth and safety of Monday night and cut Worst Week or Gary Unmarried loose. And perhaps not.
How did we come up with our list? We found that last season, the future of a show was nearly directly related to its adults 18-49 average viewers divided by its networks 18-49 average viewers. Many other factors may matter, but they all seemed to boil down to that one number. Because American Idol so skewed Fox's 18-49 average, and would make nearly all Fox shows fall into the "cancel" range, for Fox, I used the last STD 18-49 average *before* Idol. Last season, if a show had better than 92% of its network's average 18-49 viewership (0.92 in our index) it was pretty safe, below that level it was in danger. We're not sure what the magic number will be this season, but I'm very confident that our index will still indicate the shows most likely to be cancelled compared to those less likely to be cancelled.
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For unscripted shows, the results from last season were far less cut and dried. A similar relationship did seem to hold between 18-49 averages, but some unscripted shows survived with very low numbers. My conclusion was that some unscripted shows must be so cheap that they are expected to do little more than fill air time and produce little in the way of viewership. However The Closer a show is to the top of the list the more danger it's in of being cancelled or not returning when it's run is completed. Other shows can be judged by their relative position on our list ranked from most likely to be cancelled to least likely to be cancelled.
| PROGRAM | Net | STD 18-49 (LIVE+SD) (000) | Network Avg. STD 18-49 | Renew/ Cancel index | Status |
| IN HARM’S WAY | CW | 361 | 1,380 | 0.26 | |
| AMERICA’S TOUGHEST JOBS | NBC | 1,453 | 3,620 | 0.40 | |
| WIFE SWAP | ABC | 1,807 | 4,050 | 0.45 | |
| SMARTER THAN 5TH GRADER | FOX | 1,839 | 3,940 | 0.47 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-FRI | NBC | 1,812 | 3,620 | 0.50 | |
| DON’T FORGET THE LYRICS | FOX | 1,976 | 3,940 | 0.50 | |
| SAT NIGHT FTBL PRE-GAME | ABC | 2,049 | 4,050 | 0.51 | |
| 48 Hours Mystery | CBS | 2,100 | 4,050 | 0.52 | |
| Supernanny | ABC | 2,106 | 4,050 | 0.52 | |
| COPS | FOX | 2,055 | 3,940 | 0.52 | |
| OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS | ABC | 2,175 | 4,050 | 0.54 | cancelled |
| HOLE IN WALL THU-8P | FOX | 2,184 | 3,940 | 0.55 | |
| AMW: AMERICA FIGHTS BACK | FOX | 2,399 | 3,940 | 0.61 | |
| 20/20-FRI | ABC | 2,511 | 4,050 | 0.62 | |
| COPS 2 | FOX | 2,457 | 3,940 | 0.62 | |
| FOOTBALL NT AMERICA PT 2 | NBC | 2,426 | 3,620 | 0.67 | |
| AMER FUNN HOME VIDEOS | ABC | 2,948 | 4,050 | 0.73 | |
| Kitchen Nightmares | FOX | 2,941 | 3,940 | 0.75 | |
| DEAL OR NO DEAL-WED | NBC | 2,811 | 3,620 | 0.78 | |
| SAT NIGHT FOOTBALL | ABC | 3,588 | 4,050 | 0.89 | |
| 60 Minutes | CBS | 3,591 | 4,050 | 0.89 | |
| STYLISTA | CW | 1,294 | 1,380 | 0.94 | |
| Amazing Race 13 | CBS | 4,076 | 4,050 | 1.01 | |
| Biggest Loser 6 | NBC | 4,069 | 3,620 | 1.12 | |
| DANCING W/STARS RESULTS | ABC | 4,868 | 4,050 | 1.20 | |
| Extreme Makeover:HM ED-8P | ABC | 5,022 | 4,050 | 1.24 | |
| SURVIVOR: GABON | CBS | 5,763 | 4,050 | 1.42 | |
| Dancing with the Stars | ABC | 5,868 | 4,050 | 1.45 | |
| THE OT | FOX | 6,123 | 3,940 | 1.55 | |
| SUNDAY NIGHT NFL PRE-KICK | NBC | 5,745 | 3,620 | 1.59 | |
| AMERICA’S Top Model | CW | 2,507 | 1,380 | 1.82 | |
| NBC Sunday Night Football | NBC | 8,479 | 3,620 | 2.34 |
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2008 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All viewership numbers are Live+SD.
NBC is going to have to find room in its schedule for the Office spin off. I think they were probably figuring on taking 30 rock off the air for a while to test that spot for the spin off, but if its numbers hold, I’m thinking NBC’s best bet would be to move 30 Rock to 8 pm and give Kath & Kim a lead in. Keeping My Name is Earl on deck to come back if anything horrible should happen. This depends a lot on how 30 Rock does during November sweeps, but I think it’s a viable idea. My Name is Earl has no room for growth anymore, and is more likely to keep bleeding viewers.
Guys, is it possible for you to do FOX’s index WITHOUT the World Series involved? I know FOX doesn’t take MLB into account for their internal scoring. I also know they do take American Idol into account. Perhaps you could list both in the future?
TSCC is sinking fast
I’m really excited about Old Christine. Not only has it dropped many positions since last week, but the index number is starting to get closer to the .92 range, although it has a long way to go.
Nick, sadly that’s not possible. We don’t calculate the averages we get them directly from Nielsen.
TSCC was around .80 just before the baseball interruptions. Hopefully it will recover in the next few weeks.
No! Not Chuck! Take me instead!
I think Earl/Kath & Kim will have all of their episodes aired even if both are taken off the schedule at one point or the other. I actually don’t think either will be renewed for next fall. Earl just keeps shedding viewers and new series Kath should do just the same.
Again, why is My Own Worst Enemy is on the renewal list. It’s doing terrible. And Chuck, Ugly Betty and Samantha Who will likely make it to the 2009-10 schedule regardless
Dan, again, the basic math of how the index works (in our estimation) continues to elude you. We may be wrong, but our take is that in almost all cases, the networks make the decision based on comparing how a show’s season average among 18-49 year old viewers compares to THAT network’s season average for 18-49 viewers.
Relative to its own network, MOWE is a bit below average, but not terribly so. There are like 5 NBC scripted shows in worse shape based on this metric, and based on where networks drew the line last year, currently MOWE is just inside the renewal zone. Plus, if you factored out the big impact of Sunday Night Football on the averages, versus NBC’s other scripted shows, MOWE would be pretty much exactly average. Our take is that networks do not cancel average performers.
The index can’t predict everything, but I’m guessing to this point of the season it has accurately predicted MOWE. You say the numbers are terrible, but looking at the 18-49 numbers, for NBC they are not terrible (they ain’t great, but they are hardly terrible).
Chuck isnt on this listing because it wasnt showed this past monday.So everyone needs to relax a lil.Chuck is safe and sound compared to terminator which is sinking faster then the titanic.
Travis
The thing about MOWE is that it’s got its premiere episode in its average. It’s been performing below Chuck since then, but is still considered higher on this list.
Travis, this list is for last week, when Chuck was aired, and it is on this list. It’s just on the not renewed side of things.
Julia, that’s a good point, last year Bionic Woman was cancelled under similar (actually even better)looking circumstances. but as Bill notes, it’s compiled in a “what would happen if the season ended today” fashion. It would be nice to see the trend in these tables, but, it would be nice to have $50 million, a staff, and a completely database driven platform to produce all the tables.
Mr.Seidman
the math in this process certainly eludes me (no sarcasm intende)so please explain:how can the index on PD have gotten worse if viewership increased during the last episode,specially seeing as it was steady during it?
Thank You
Ok, first I will admit I am a Chuck fan and really only care about NBC renewing it. But I have a question, is this week by week or are you averaging the shows 18-49 throughout the year?
If you are just comparing the numbers week to week could you please explain this to me below, to me it looks like Chuck did better than the other two or am I missing something.
I got this from NBC’s website for last week.
Kath/Kim 2.4/6 18-49
Chuck 2.6 7 18-49
MOWE 2.5/6 18-49
Thanks
Caio, they didn’t really get any worse — they just didn’t get any better.
They stayed about the same. PD’s average *did* increase by ~80,000 among 18-49 year olds, but ABC’s aggregate network average also went up by more than 80,000 (it increased by 110,000 week over week) so PD’s index number fell a tiny bit (one one hundredth).
@CrashMacKenzie
I now how you feel, it’s going back and forth on the cancellation line.
Travis, these numbers are Monday-Sunday of last week, they don’t count Monday this week.
I see,so it only increased because there were more people watchin ABC altogether.Well,thanks for the input.I for one will hope for the best.
Does prison break cost significantly less than heroes’ $4m to produce?