It can't be easy being a network scheduler. I know it seems like everyone and their mother thinks they can do a better job. But some of those people are the same people who don't think ABC should cancel Pushing Daisies, even though it's ABC's worst performing scripted show. It's not easy being a network scheduler.
A lot has already been written about Fox's new show Dollhouse airing on Fridays beginning February 13, 2009. Friday the thirteenth! Fridays has been a particularly barren night when it comes to broadcast television viewing. A lot of people will say that's because everyone goes out on Friday. It's true that less people watch TV on Fridays, but it's not half as many as on Thursday, it's more like 85% as many. The problem for the broadcast networks, especially among younger viewers is that even those who stay home and are watching TV, there are many more of them watching the programs on other channels besides ABC, CBS, CW, Fox, and NBC.
The networks must accept that less people watch TV on Fridays and Saturdays. Some of that just shows that the TV advertising business still works (at least they will certainly claim that to be the case) and that some of those missing people aren't out drinking like fishes, but are at the newly released movies that the networks have been advertising. But the networks do not have to accept that they can't command more share of the viewers who are watching TV to Friday nights.
I can't fault the networks for trying to find programming that will capture bigger share on Fridays. But I also couldn't really fault them for pretty much abandoning it completely in favor of less expensive unscripted programming (say, as ABC has done).
But what about Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles moving to Fridays to be joined by the new Dollhouse? I'm not very optimistic about this working out very well for these shows or for Fox, but I don't know that I'd do anything differently either if I were responsible for scheduling and only got to pick when the shows aired and not what shows would be on.
I've written about buy-in before, and it's very clear to me that for series television, with rare exception, plots and premises that require a high degree of suspension of disbelief do not become hits. And by "rare exception" I can think of only one show currently still on the air that meets the criteria: LOST. That's all I have. One show. The premise of Dollhouse in short is that there is a group of people who have had their memories wiped clean and can be imprinted with all kinds of personalities to be use to do...various things in various situations. While there's no doubt in my mind the premise can and will find an audience, there is significant doubt in my mind that it could be a large audience -- regardless of what night it airs.
On Fridays it literally stands no chance of a huge audience. I see little opportunity for it to attract audiences as large as what CBS gets with its procedurals. Could it find 8 million viewers? Sure. Keep them? Not so sure. Could it pull a 2.5 or higher rating among 18-49 year olds? That's definitely in the realm of possibility. Sure, it's possible, but the question is, even if it does, given the cost for such shows is Fox better off economically doing that than trying to find some unscripted cheap content that will pull a 1.8 rating among 18-49 year olds?
One problem is that while it's very inexpensive to test and learn on the Internet, doing so in broadcast television is not cheap. If Fox wanted to know the high bar for "what could be done on a Friday?" it would air new episodes of House there a couple of times. It won't do that simply because it's *already* sure that doing so would pull lower numbers than airing House sometime Monday-Thursday and the goal is to make as much money as possible. So even as a test, you won't likely see a new episode of House on Fridays (or a new episode of Grey's Anatomy on ABC, or a new CSI on CBS, or a new episode of The Office on NBC).
I'm not very optimistic for Dollhouse on Fridays, though I agree with those who suggest that Fox can be more patient with it on Fridays than it could if it put it on as the lead-in for 24. But with the goal of making the most money, expensive scripted shows like Dollhouse and Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles don't seem well married with Friday nights (and though I am a TSCC fan, I am not optimistic for a 3rd season of TSCC regardless of when Fox airs it).
What would I do? I'm sure this won't make me any friends, but with the goal of making the most money, I think at least during the American Idol run I'd milk it way more than Fox has ever done. I know there are some offshoots that cover Idol in syndication, but I'd turn Fridays into a two-hour coverage of the American Idol contest. I'd cover American Idol like ESPN covers football from 11am-1pm on Sundays. Clips, talking heads, interviews, human interest stories and predictions. It would cost practically nothing to make and whether you or I would watch it, there's obviously an audience for it. I wouldn't watch it, but I never caught the Idol bug. But it's not lost on me that millions have. A couple of hours treating it like ESPN treats the NFL is exactly what I would do. And that's how I'd program Fridays January through May if I were running Fox.
One final note: a lot of people are squawking about Dollhouse not getting any promotion by airing after American Idol. It's not a foregone conclusion that it won't air once or twice after Idol. I'll be at least a little surprised if that doesn't happen.
Fortunately for fans of scripted programming (and I am one of those) and especially Joss Whedon fans, I'm just a blogger, not a programmer at Fox! But when it comes to making money, I like the prospects for the American Idol coverage better than Fox's current plans for Friday nights starting February 13. I'm sure you have your own ideas...
I’m not sure two hours of Idol coverage would work on Fridays. The shows in syndication are not two hours long, that’s for sure, and I doubt they do anywhere near what FOX would need to consider Fridays acceptable. And comparing Idol coverage to ESPN doesn’t work, because ESPN has lots of games to cover, not just one.
But there still is the question of what to do with it. While I’m pretty sure that Dollhouse and T:SCC will not get good enough ratings to pay for the shows, they do have a good shot of challenging CBS’s demos. Nothing guaranteed, and I don’t know that it will be enough.
Idol extra or whatever it is airs syndicated all over the place at different times without promo from Fox. ESPN has multiple games to cover but they are games between two teams. And they still dedicate hours long coverage when it’s just the super bowl. Idol is one contest but there are many contestants. I still think it would be more profitable even if only 4 million watched.
one thing the
scritee(the iPhone has some downsides…) scripted shows do have potential for DVD revenue. Important in the case of Dollhouse since it’s a Fox show. There wouldn’t be any DVD opp with my proposalWhat I would do with Friday nights is rerun popular shows. Period. CBS just had some of it’s best numbers on Friday’s with an NCIS repeat. Just keep doing that.
As far as Fox is concerned, Fridays are where shows are sent to die. Fastlane doing “ok”, but not well enough on Wednesday? Move it to Friday, burn off the eps, then cancel it.
Justice not performing up to par on Mondays? Move it to Friday, burn off the eps, then cancel it.
Hire Joss Whedon, but never like what he comes up with? Air it on Friday, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. Then cancel it.
It seems the hope Fox always has is that the sci-fi crowd doesn’t go out on Friday, so this is their best shot at programming (and, apparently, the Sci-Fi network thinks the same thing) that night. And patience rarely pays off. A show like “Dollhouse” or “Firefly” isn’t going to “grow” unless Nielsen happens to hit on someone that falls into the niche… which apparently doesn’t happen often.
The only other hope is for media attention to be hot enough where there is the perception that the show hits the zeitgeist sweet spot or it gets enough critical buzz to be considered a “prestige” hit for the network. I doubt that will happen with Dollhouse (and Terminator is so average that it doesn’t deserve it).
But, given Fox’s track record, it is over for both of these shows. They have already written them off and they are just something to take up space on Friday nights… until they can re-air a “Nutty Professor” movie and get better numbers.
i dont think they will get ghost whisperer numbers, but if fox comes in second they could get renewed
The only successful show Fox has ever launched on Fridays is the X-files, and even that show didn’t really take off until it was moved to Sundays. Fox has never been able to program the night, and I really don’t expect that to change now.
It amuses me that people think shows are sent to Friday to “die.” Obviously FOX feels that a Sci-Fi block may be capable of doing something on Friday. All they want is for these shows to compete and get 2nd place numbers for their time slots. If they can do that they will be given time to grow.
I don’t see why they can’t. Friday Night has only CBS for competition.
I’m not so sure. You could’ve taken second place in the demo with a 1.6 in the 8pm hour and a 1.9 would’ve garnered second place at 9pm. I don’t see Fox being patient unless those shows (which are much more expensive to make than 5th Grader for Fox, and SuperNanny for ABC) do better than a 2.0. And unless Dollhouse is doing better than a 2.3 among 18-49 year olds, I don’t see Fox being incredibly patient with it.
“And by “rare exception” I can think of only one show currently still on the air that meets the criteria: LOST. That’s all I have. One show.”
Heroes is still a demo hit.
“What would I do? I’m sure this won’t make me any friends, but with the goal of making the most money, I think at least during the American Idol run I’d milk it way more than Fox has ever done.”
So you want to turn AI into FOX’s version of “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire”? Or, for a more recent example, “Deal Or No Deal?”
“It amuses me that people think shows are sent to Friday to “die.”
It amuses me too, because it’s the truth. Well, in the case of FOX, it’s the truth. As someone has already pointed out, FOX has not had a Friday show become a hit in more than a decade. In fact, no new show, hit or not, has survived premiering on Fridays in over a decade.
If Fox really wanted to take a big risk for Fri night, they could just air AI that night for 2 hours, never mind a recap show. It seems to me that winning the night isn’t really an interest of theirs, but I can see them landing a second place finish with that sci fi combo.
One thing that I think is going to work against both shows is the fact that there is so much negative buzz about their prospects. If cancellation is a foregone conclusion for both of them, why in the world would anyone get invested in either show?
Andrea, Heroes is fading fast, but fair enough: that’s two.
As for “Millionaire-ing Idol”, it’s a fair point, but I look at Idol as far more a contest a la the NFL (where people could potentially…and actually do gamble on the outcomes) so only sort of.
I don’t believe the Friday show would take away from the regular two airings any more than I think ESPN programming dozens of hours a week of NFL programming dilutes whatever its Monday night football ratings are. In the end, it’s all about the competition (which I think makes Idol a bit different than Millionaire and DoND).
I actually think that this is a good move considering Sci-Fi channel’s airing of the last season of BSG at 10pm on Fridays. There is huge overlap in the fan base of Wheedon (and thus Summer Glau) and BSG and I think these shows on FOX will act as a strong lead-in…
I Put Dollhouse in thursday night:
20h- Bones
21- Dollhouse
And Terminator
Sunday – 20hpm
What a lot of people are ignoring is that FOX may have LEARNED something from previous runs. Look at FIREFLY. The show was treated poorly by running the pilot last, etc. The ratings weren’t good even for a friday. If memory serves the show continued to finish in 3rd place for the time slot. It did poorly all around.
Then it was released on DVD. FIREFLY has done so well on DVD sales that if SERENITY had never happened then FOX may have picked the show back up just like it did with FAMILY GUY. FIREFLY is still selling well and is about to be released of Blu Ray with high hopes.
FOX is not going to treat DOLLHOUSE the same way. In fact because of the previous Whedon success after cancellation DOLLHOUSE will be given more time to grow and more promotional considerations. I know from talking with people at FOX that they consider FIREFLY a massive failure on THEIR part. They aren’t likely to make the same mistake twice.
I hope the shows do well, but I don’t think their ratings matter – I think Fringe’s do. It’s highly unlikely that Terminator, Dollhouse and Fringe (*barf… sorry, I can’t stand it) will ALL get pick-ups, especially with that new Virtuality project coming along next year.
If only Terminator would have gotten the post-AI spot last winter… but no, the brilliant minds over at FOX promote the hell out of it, give it one good lead-in and then put it up against the last half hour of DWTS in favor of The Moment of Truth -_- BRILLIANT!
Do you think this is Fox’s way of getting rid of Terminator:SCC?
Or is it a way to keep it because you cant expect great ratings on a friday?
I like your idea of an idol coverage show, but not on the broadcast network. FOX has to protect the idol brand, and having that many hours of broadcast primetime coverage could kill the big event feel of idol. I think an idol coverage show would work better on a fox owned cable network, (fx, or even better fox news) This says idol is so big other networks feel the need to cover it. How would I program fridays: I would pick up the broadcast rights to regular season NHL games for cheap after it NBC’s contract is up, and air hockey games. It won’t rate huge nationally but its cheap.
If memory serves me correctly, Fox used to air Idol specials on Fridays (extra auditions, those William Hung centered shows). I wonder how they did?
Doesn’t anyone remember TGIF. Friday was once the arguably biggest night of TV during the week.
Add Fringe to the list of hit shows that you must supsend disbelief.
Also, T:SCC isn’t that expensive of a show to make as everyone thinks. It has the same budge as Pushing Daisies.